建筑物沉降规律的综合时序分析

建筑物的沉降监测数据序列具有趋势变化和随机变化的特点，本文针对两种变化项的特点分别建立相应的数学模型，再将其组合起来建立综合数学模型，从总体上把握沉降数据序列的变化规律。实例计算分析表明，此方法具有较高的拟合精度和预测能力，具有一定的应用参考价值。     

Study on simulating strong ground motion by fractal stochastic method

The time history of strong ground motion can be synthesized by empirical Green's function (EGF) method.Firstly a large seismic event is discretized into a series of subevents; secondly recordings of earthquakes with proper size and spatial distribution are chosen as time history (EGF) of those subevents; finally the EGFs are summated to get the time history of ground motion caused by the large event.     

Ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano (Greece) for the period 1995–2002: Results from DInSAR and DGPS observations

Differential GPS (DGPS) and Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) analyses were applied to the Kos-Yali-Nisyros Volcanic Field (SE Hellenic Volcanic Arc) to quantify the ground deformation of Nisyros Volcano. After intense seismic activity in 1996, a GPS network was installed in June 1997 and re-occupied annually up to 2002. A general uplift ranging from 14 to 140 mm was determined at all stations of the network. The corresponding horizontal displacements ranged from 13 to 53 mm. The displacement vectors indicate that the island is undergoing extension towards the East, West and South. A two-source “Mogi” model combined with assumed motion along the Mandraki Fault was constructed to fit the observed deformation. The best-fit model assumes sources at a depth of 5500 m NW of the centre of the island and at 6500 m offshore ESE of Yali Island. DInSAR analysis using four pairs of images taken between May 1995 and September 2000 suggests that deformation was occurring during 1995 before the start of the seismic crisis. An amplitude of at least 56 mm along the slant range appeared for the period 1996 through 1999. This deformation is consistent with the two-source model invoked in DGPS modelling. Surface evidence of ground deformation is expressed in the contemporaneous reactivation of the Mandraki Fault. In addition, a 600 m long N-S trending irregular rupture in the caldera floor was formed between 2001 and 2002. This rupture is interpreted as the release of surface stress in the consolidated epiclastic and hydrothermal sediments of the caldera floor.     

Development of an integrated conceptual model for the rational management of the transboundary Nestos River, Greece

This paper provides a detailed analysis of the geologic, hydrologic and hydrogeologic characteristics of Nestos River basin, which is formed within the Greek mountainous part of the river. The quantitative analysis was mainly based on the data of the river flow in different gauging points across the rivercourse as well as on the data of groundwater discharge from karst springs of the mountainous area while important conclusions were made regarding the hydraulic connection between the surface waters of the river and the groundwater of the karst aquifers of the basin. The qualitative analysis has shown that the quality of both surface waters and groundwaters of the investigated basin is high, whereas, no sources of contamination were indicated during this research. The possible effects of the two large dams of Platanovrisi and Thesavros are also analysed as they strongly affect the quantitative and qualitative regime of the river delta.     

空间运动对象与时空数据类型研究

当前时空数据模型多以描述空间实体的离散变化为主。该文中对空间运动对象在抽象层次的无限连续空间、离散层次的有限离散空间上的数据类型进行分析和定义，将其分别划分为时间类型、空间类型和时态类型来研究，并提出支持空间运动对象的表示方法和操作方式。该方法既能表示空间实体的连续运动，也能表示其离散变化，为空间运动对象时空数据模型的建立奠定了基础。     

不同对流参数化方案和初值场组合对四川两次暴雨影响的数值模拟

针对2004年9月2~6日四川盆地东北部一次持续性暴雨过程和2004年6月30日成都地区暴雨过程,利用MM5中尺度数值模式,进行了Grell、Kuo、KF及BM四种积云对流参数化方案与T213模式分析值及NCEP再分析值两种初始值组合的数值试验,分析了不同积云方案和初值组合的模拟性能。比较结果表明,MM5模式较好地再现了这两次强降水过程。在同一模式中,不同对流参数化方案和不同初值组合在降水落区和强度模拟上存在一定程度的差异。初步模拟表明NCEP资料模拟的降水强度较T213资料模拟的降水强度偏弱,但降水落区较T213资料模拟的更接近实况,T213资料模拟的降水空报现象较严重。以T213资料模拟得到的高度、温度场都较NCEP资料更有利于影响系统的加强,模拟的湿度场、散度场和垂直运动场都较NCEP资料更有利于强降水的发生。相对而言,NCEP资料模拟结果更接近实况,Kuo和Grell方案对初值表现出更为敏感。     

能见度集合预报及后处理技术应用

基于污染物情况、环流系统和时空分布特征分析,利用神经网络对历史数据进行建模,生成了能见度集合预报产品。在2022年冬季的TS评分检验中,预报产品优于欧洲中期数值预报中心模式(ECMWF)的能见度预报产品。利用概率匹配、最优百分位和神经网络三种后处理方法生成后处理产品,这些产品的TS评分优于集合预报产品。预报输入的ECMWF模式2 m湿度与实况的偏差是误差的主要来源。利用集成方法对三种后处理产品进行集成,其TS评分结果在低能见度区间总体接近或略优于原始产品。生成的能见度集合预报后处理最优集成预报产品成功提高了对中期延伸期能见度天气的预测准确性。     

GRAPES千米尺度模式在西南复杂地形区降水预报偏差与成因初探

利用2019年夏季（6—8月）西南复杂地形区地面观测站逐时和逐日降水量观测数据,从降水量和降水频率入手,对同期GRAPES-Meso 3 km业务模式短期（36 h以内）降水预报性能,特别是在不同典型地貌区—四川盆地子区、云贵高原北部子区和南部子区、青藏高原东缘山地子区的预报偏差进行细致评估与分析。结果表明:（1）GRAPES-Meso 3 km模式能合理地刻画出西南复杂地形区夏季日降水和日内尺度降水的主要特征,以及小时降水频次-强度的基本关系。（2）在各子区,模式日降水量（频率）预报表现为清晰的正偏差,正偏差在盆地子区最显著,为观测值的1.1倍（0.3倍）;日降水量正偏差主要由强降水日降水量预报偏大引起,但频率正偏差在云贵高原南、北子区与其他两个子区不同,主要是中小雨日数预报偏多的贡献;强降水（中小雨）落区预报存在明显（轻微）偏大倾向,强降水预报落区偏大频率在青藏高原东缘山地子区最高,达82.8%,在云贵高原南部子区最低,为53.6%。（3）日循环上,各时次小时降水量（频率）预报整体偏大,且主要正偏差出现在观测的夜雨峰值时段,其中海拔1200 m以下区域的降水频率正偏差从夜间峰值区延续到中午,模式偏强的日降水量预报往往表现为日内偏长的降水时长或小时降水空报。（4）诊断分析显示,模式在四川盆地区突出的夏季日降水预报正偏差是模式对流层低层在云贵高原南-东南侧偏强的西南风预报与西南地区特殊地形结合的产物。      

石英脉型钨多金属矿床的扇状成矿实例及找矿模型

石英脉型钨矿床是中国数量最多的钨矿床类型,但保有储量消耗迅速,迫切需要创新找矿模型,指导找矿突破。文章结合二十余年的找矿实践,通过详细分析扇状成矿矿床实例,构建了石英脉型钨矿床新的找矿模型。该模型强调赋矿裂隙为岩浆动力成因,在花岗岩体顶部呈扇状分布型式,岩浆期后热液恰在裂隙张开时充填其中而形成扇状成矿系统;提出“就岩找矿”、“就矿找矿”、“就矿找岩”的地质、地球化学和地球物理标志,指导矿床尺度的勘查工程部署。截至目前,该模型已在广东禾尚田钨锡矿床、广西珊瑚钨锡矿床、广西社垌钨钼矿床、江西盘古山钨铋矿床等获得了验证,找矿成效显著。