江西省中小水电智慧气象服务技术研究及应用效果检验

基于高精度DEM及水系数据的流域集雨区划分,研究了江西省中小水电站集雨区划定技术方法;通过对水库集雨区上降水预报和观测站点的实况两者对比分析,建立了基于库区的多模式本地化水库面雨量预报方法;通过模式参数化率定方法以及雨洪耦合来水量预报方法的研究,建立了水库来水量预报模型.利用2007—2020年水文数据以及降水实况和模式数据,检验了七一水库2020年逐7 d面雨量预报效果.检验结果表明,面雨量预报模型在0—3 d的平均预报准确率为70.1％;中雨和大雨量级的降水预报准确率分别为30.7％和28.3％,暴雨、大暴雨预报具有一定的指示意义;改进后的流量模拟效果进一步提升,强降水过程的流量预报效果明显改善.     

CHANGES IN SOVIET NATURAL GAS FLOWS: 1970–1985*

Natural gas flows in the USSR are modeled using the out-of-kilter algorithm after the transmission system is abstracted into a network of demand and supply nodes and bounded arcs. Evaluation of the resulting flow pattern is done for 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985. Shifts in gas supplies from the European area to Central Asia and now to West Siberia have necessitated changes in the Soviet natural gas pipeline system. The system is entering a period of long run stability between the geographic distribution of supply and demand in contrast to a continually changing distribution pattern before 1980.     

On the application of optimization methods to the determination of members of families of periodic solutions

The techniques used for the numerical computation of families of periodic orbits of dynamical systems rely on predictor-corrector algorithms. These algorithms usually depend on the solution of systems of approximate equations constructed from the periodicity conditions of these orbits. In this contribution we transform the root finding procedure to an optimization one which is applied on an objective function based on the exact periodicity conditions. Thus, the determination of periodic solutions and families of such orbits can be accomplished through unconstrained optimization. In this paper we apply and compare some well-known minimization methods for the solution of this problem. The obtained results are promising. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

优化反演方法及数值反演试验初步研究

基于典型力学模型。以研究区域的岩性参数和研究块体的边界力作为反演参数进行数值模拟，研究了单纯形法，模式搜索法，鲍威尔法，变量轮换法，混合罚函数法，复合形法等6种最优化反演方法的反演效果和可靠性。结果显示6种方法都有较好的表现。在恰当的条件下，6种方法反演所得参数都达到或接近参数的理论值，迭代收敛图，位移拟合曲线和残差统计分布图直观地反映出6种方法的效果和可靠性，但对单纯形法和复合形法应给予较高的迭代收敛精度。     

求解多目标非线性优选问题的算法

研究变形监测网布网方案的优化 ,探讨目标权重未知情况下的非线性多目标优化问题 ,给出了一个求解权重未知的多目标非线性优选问题的算法。该算法采用一种新的最小加权偏差优选方法 ,可优选最佳布网方案     

峰峰第五煤矿电厂供水方案优化选择

在目前市场经济条件下 ,峰峰第五煤矿由原先单纯治水向综合利用水方向过渡 ,提出了建电厂 ,以矿井废水作为电厂冷却用水。本文关于建电厂的三个供水方案优化选择 ,采用系统理论、权重分析 ,对方案进行优化选择 ,供决策者参考     

长江三峡水库蓄水后的首发微震群活动

长江三峡水库2003年5月19日正式蓄水，6月7～30日发生可定位0级以上地震131次，其中最大为ML2．1。经分析，该微震群活动与水库蓄水有关。     

测量平差中的最优化方法

本文应用最优化方法分析平差问题,指出无论是古典平差或是秩亏自由网平差,实际上都是求矛盾方程组BX-L=0的极小最小二乘解。以此为基础,本文采用Cram-Schmidt矩阵直交化方法,提出一种对古典平差和秩亏自由网平差都适用的计算方法。     

Cosmic rays at ultra high energies (Neutrinos!)

Resonant photo-pion production with the cosmic microwave background predicts a suppression of extragalactic protons above the famous Greisen–Zatsepin–Kuzmin cutoff at about E_GZK ≈ 5 × 10¹⁰ GeV. Current cosmic ray data measured by the AGASA and HiRes Collaborations do not unambiguously confirm the GZK cutoff and leave a window for speculations about the origin and chemical composition of the highest energy cosmic rays. In this work we analyze the possibility of strongly interacting neutrino primaries and derive model-independent quantitative requirements on the neutrino–nucleon inelastic cross section for a viable explanation of the cosmic ray data. Search results on weakly interacting cosmic particles from the AGASA and RICE experiments are taken into account simultaneously. Using a flexible parameterization of the inelastic neutrino–nucleon cross section we find that a combined fit of the data does not favor the Standard Model neutrino–nucleon inelastic cross section, but requires, at 90% confidence level, a steep increase within one energy decade around E_GZK by four orders of magnitude. We illustrate such an enhancement within some extensions of the Standard Model. The impact of new cosmic ray data or cosmic neutrino search results on this scenario, notably from the Pierre Auger Observatory soon, can be immediately evaluated within our approach.     

The Paleoproterozoic North Hebei Orogen: North China craton's collisional suture with the Columbia supercontinent

Understanding the geologic history and position of the North China craton in the Paleoproterozoic Columbia supercontinent has proven elusive. Paleoproterozoic orogenic episodes (2.00–1.85 Ga) are temporally associated with ultimate stabilization of the North China craton (NCC), followed by the development of extensive craton-wide rift systems at 1.85–1.80 Ga. The age difference between the sedimentary cover and the metamorphic basement is up to 500–700 Ma, suggesting that uplift and doming of cratonic basement occurred in the latest Paleoproterozoic. Mafic dike swarms (1.80–1.77 Ga) and anorogenic magmatism (1.80–1.70 Ga) record the extensional breakup and dispersal of the North China craton during this stage. The late Paleoproterozoic tectonic framework and geological events documented provide important constraints for reconstruction of the NCC within the Late Paleoproterozoic supercontinent of Columbia.An east-west striking thousand kilometer long belt of khondalites (granulite facies metapelites) stretches along the northern margin of the North China craton, on the cratonward side of the Northern Hebei orogenic belt. This granulite belt includes Mg–Al (sapphirine bearing) granulites that reached ultrahigh-temperature “peak” metamorphic conditions of  1000 °C at 10 kbars at 1927 ± 11 Ma. Following peak ultrahigh-temperature conditions, the rocks underwent initial isobaric cooling and subsequent isothermal decompression, and these trajectories are interpreted to be part of an overall anti-clockwise P-T evolution indicating that the northern margin of the craton experienced continental collision at 1.93–1.92 Ga. The position of the khondalite belt south of the Northern Hebei orogenic belt makes it analogous to Tibet, a continental collision-related plateau characterized by double crustal thicknesses and granulite facies metamorphism at depth. We suggest that the tectonic evolution of the NCC during this period was closely related to the assembly and break-up of the Columbia supercontinent, and that the NCC was adjacent to the Baltic and Amazonian cratons in the period 2.00–1.70 Ga. Craton-wide extension occurred within 100–150 Ma of collision along the northern margin of the craton at 1.93–1.92 Ga. It is concluded that mantle upwellings are chiefly responsible for the breakup of the NCC from the Paleoproterozoic supercontinent.