闽,赣地区小震群性质探讨

本文运用地震频度衰减系数h值,震群能量释放均匀度u值、震群归一化熵值K等地震活动参数的统计分析,研究了长汀震群以及闽赣地区其它小震群的殊征,认为长汀震群是一次无前兆性质的正常地震活动,而龙南震群是一次前兆性震群。     

Extraction and Analysis of Land Cover Heterogeneity over China

Spatial heterogeneity exists in land surface at every scale, and it is one of key factors to bring uncertainty to land parameter retrieval from remote-sensed data. This paper proposed a methodology to use the boundary length among different land cover types to characterize and quantify land surface heterogeneity based on high-resolution land cover images. Then the heterogeneity feature at 1 kilometer scale in China was extracted from “GlobalLand30” land cover datasets with the spatial resolution of 30 m. The mixed structure, degree of fragmentation and intra-heterogeneity of eight main vegetation biomes from MODIS land cover product over heterogeneous surface in china were analyzed. Mountain area and ecotone are more heterogeneous than other regions. Savanna biome (average boundary length is 7 426 meters) is the most heterogeneous zone followed by forest, grass/crop and shrub biome with average boundary length of 4 323, 3 160, 1 779 meters, respectively.     

Global SMOS Soil Moisture Retrievals from The Land Parameter Retrieval Model

A recent study by Van der Schalie et al. (2015) showed good results for applying the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) on SMOS observations over southeast Australia and optimizing and evaluating the retrieved soil moisture (θ in m³ m⁻³) against ground measurements from the OzNet sites. In this study, the LPRM parameterization is globally updated for SMOS against modelled θ from MERRA-Land (MERRA) and ERA-Interim/Land (ERA) over the period of July 2010–December 2010, mainly focusing on two parameters: the single scattering albedo (ω) and the roughness (h). The Pearson's coefficient of correlation (r) increased rapidly when increasing the ω up to 0.12 and reached a steady state from thereon, no significant spatial pattern was found in the estimation of the single scattering albedo, which could be an artifact of the used parameter estimation procedure, and a single value of 0.12 was therefore used globally. The h was defined as a function of θ and varied slightly for the different angle bins, with maximum values of 1.1–1.3 as the angle changes from 42.5° to 57.5°.This resulted in an average r of 0.51 and 0.47, with a bias (m³ m⁻³) of −0.02 and −0.01 and an unbiased root mean square error (ubrmse in m³ m⁻³) of 0.054 and 0.056 against MERRA (ascending and descending). For ERA this resulted in an r of 0.61 and 0.53, with a bias of −0.03 and an ubrmse 0.055 and 0.059. The resulting parameterization was then used to run LPRM on SMOS observations over the period of July 2010–December 2013 and evaluated against SMOS Level 3 (L3) θ and available in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN). The comparison with L3 shows that the LPRM θ retrievals are very similar, with for the ascending set very high r of over 0.9 in large parts of the globe, with an overall average of 0.85 and the descending set performing less with an average of 0.74, mainly due to the negative r over the Sahara. The mean bias is 0.03, with an ubrmse of 0.038 and 0.044. In this study there are three major areas where the LPRM retrievals do not perform well: very dry sandy areas, densely forested areas and over high latitudes, which are all known limitations of LPRM. The comparison against in situ measurement from the ISMN give very similar results, with average r for LPRM of 0.65 and 0.61 (0.64 and 0.59 for L3) for the ascending and descending sets, while having a comparable bias and ubrmse over the different networks. This shows that LPRM used on SMOS observations produce θ retrievals with a similar quality as the SMOS L3 product.     

东海区带鱼年渔获量变动规律的探讨

本文根据东海区28a带鱼渔获量资料,采用参数模型法计算了东海区带鱼年渔获量变动规律,得出7a为一个变动周期的结论,井预测,若不采取有力措施保护资源,16a后资源将有枯竭的可能。     

土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟中的参数敏感性分析和优化

使用一种复杂洗牌算法 (SCE-UA, Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm) 对Noah陆面模式中的参数进行敏感性分析和优化,其中水文参数采取直接优化和优化土壤成份的形式,侧重于研究两种水文参数给出方法对土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟的敏感性。结果表明:将土壤湿度和土壤温度作为判据,模式中水文参数敏感性最高,水文参数对土壤湿度的敏感性要高于对土壤温度的敏感性。表层土壤湿度作为判据对土壤水文参数优化后,可以改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟,加入深层土壤湿度同时作为判据后,优化使土壤温度的模拟变差。当土壤成份作为优化的参数,表层和深层土壤湿度作为判据,优化能够同时改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟。单独使用土壤温度作为判据不能达到优化水文参数的目的。将土壤成份作为优化的参数后,土壤湿度和土壤温度的多判据优化效果最好,且减少不敏感参数的个数后对优化结果的影响总体不大。基于以上结果,将土壤成份作为优化水文参数的方法能够更好的考虑不同水文参数之间的约束关系,优化后的水文参数具有很好的一致性,优化效果较直接优化水文参数更好。     

一个干侵入参数及其应用

鉴于干侵入在气旋的爆发性发展、冷锋的演变等方面起着重要的促进作用,因此,文章详细分析了一次北方暴雨中的干侵入特征.分析发现,干侵入在此次降水事件中一直维持,而且降水随干侵入的增强而加强,干侵入推动了降水区的东南向移动.在McNulty早期工作的基础上,借鉴Doswell以及Schultz等发展的IM(ingredients-based methodology)方法,将其应用于干侵入的研究.文章将过去对干侵入(无论在等压面还足等熵面上)的研究中,用低相对湿度、冷平流、高位涡来表征干侵入气流的这些单个物理量综合起来,用一个简单、使用方便的物理参数来表征干侵入.这是以往暴雨研究巾的IM理论方法在干侵入研究领域的新尝试.文章朋新的干侵人参数,在等熵面上分析了实际降水过程中干侵入的演变.分析表明,干侵入参数能够较好地量化干侵入强度,指示卫星云图和水汽图像上干区的演变.通过等熵面与相应气压层的对比分析,发现等熵和等压面上的分析比较一致,等熵面上的干侵入在高层比低层强度大.由垂直剖面图的分析可见,干侵入气流位于低层暖湿气流上方,这就使得垂直方向上出现位势不稳定,有利于降水发生.这样,我们就可以通过干侵入参数来找干侵入区,关注干侵入区附近的不稳定区.来对降水做出预测,从而提高降水预报的准确率.     

一次人工触发闪电事件的定位误差分析

利用一次包含8次回击过程的人工触发闪电事件的近距离光电观测数据,分析了广东省气象闪电定位系统对其回击过程的定位结果。结果表明,回击过程探测效率约为75%(6/8),回击平均定位误差约为3768m。为了分析定位误差来源,通过对比分析的方法,逐次引入各探测子站原始记录重新进行定位计算,发现剔除误差较大的探测子站后,平均定位误差为2192m,比原来降低42%。     

Automatic parameter estimation applied on a groundwater model: The problem of structure identification

The properties of a Pleistocene aquifer located in NW Germany were evaluated by means of an inverse two-dimensional numerical model in the vertical plane. The steady-state drawdown recorded at the end of a pumping test was used to calibrate the model with a Gauss-Newton parameter estimation method. The results were analyzed within a formal statistical procedure by means of eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Although a mathematically meaningful value for the standard error can be obtained, the resulting set of permeabilities depends strongly upon the choice of the zonation pattern.     

Assessing parameter identifiability for multiple performance criteria to constrain model parameters

ABSTRACT

Reliable simulations of hydrological models require that model parameters are precisely identified. In constraining model parameters to small ranges, high parameter identifiability is achieved. In this study, it is investigated how precisely model parameters can be constrained in relation to a set of contrasting performance criteria. For this, model simulations with identical parameter samplings are carried out with a hydrological model (SWAT) applied to three contrasting catchments in Germany (lowland, mid-range mountains, alpine regions). Ten performance criteria including statistical metrics and signature measures are calculated for each model simulation. Based on the parameter identifiability that is computed separately for each performance criterion, model parameters are constrained to smaller ranges individually for each catchment. An iterative repetition of model simulations with successively constrained parameter ranges leads to more precise parameter identifiability and improves model performance. Based on these results, a more consistent handling of model parameters is achieved for model calibration.     

Crustal reflection structure in the uplifting zone of Songliao Basin and disconnecting Moho interface

Songliao Basin is one of the most important bases for oil-gas resources of China. Therefore, the mecha-nism of petroleum occurrence and basin dynamics have been paid much attention to by geo-scientists all the time. With multi-phase tectonic movements en-dured by the basin, its tectonic pattern is very complex. Thereinto, three faults, that is, western Neijiang fault(NNE25), eastern Yilan-Yitong fault (NNE30) and Sunwu-Shuangliao fault, extend along south-north direction and cut Songliao…