初始误差和参数误差对混沌系统可预报性影响的比较

利用非线性误差增长理论,以Lorenz系统为例比较研究了初始误差和参数误差对混沌系统可预报性的影响．结果表明：在初始误差和参数误差单独存在时,系统的可预报期限随误差大小的变化规律基本上相同;对于相同的误差大小,初始误差和参数误差对系统可预报期限的影响几乎相同,这一结果基本上不随参数范围的变化而变化．当初始误差和参数误差同时存在时,两者对可预报期限影响所起的作用大小主要取决于初始误差和参数误差的相对大小．当初始误差远大于参数误差时,Lorenz系统的可预报期限主要由初始误差决定,可以不用考虑参数误差对预报模式可预报性的影响;反之,当参数误差远大于初始误差时,Lorenz系统的可预报期限主要由参数误差决定;当初始误差和参数误差大小相当时,两者都对系统的可预报期限起重要作用．在后两种情况下,在考虑初始误差对可预报性影响的同时还必须考虑参数误差的作用．这提醒我们在作实际数值天气预报的时候,不仅要重视初值的确定,也要重视数值模式控制参数的确定．     

电水准的参数测定

介绍了低纬子午环的水平差分两部分测定的要求和电水准的实际配置情况，分析了在这种配置中系统参数增多的原因，叙述了测定这些参数的方法，并提出在参数测定后如何保持系统状态的要求。     

1918年南澳7.3级地震与强余震之参数复核

本文利用早期国际地震观测报告,采用现代地震定位理论和技术,对1918年南澳7．3级地震与2次强余震之参数进行了复核确定。结果表明,新核定的南澳地震及其强余震震中位置在南澎岛附近,是现代小震密集带,具有强地震活动的构造背景。     

Photogrammetric modeling of the relative orientation in underwater environments

Underwater photogrammetry provides an efficient means for documentation of environments which are complex and have limited accessibility. Yet the establishment of reference control networks in such settings is oftentimes difficult. In this regard, use of the coplanarity condition, which requires neither knowledge of object space coordinates nor setting a reference control network, seems to be an attractive solution. However, the coplanarity relation does not hold in such environments because of the refraction effect, and methods that have been proposed thus far for geometrical modeling of its effect require knowledge of object-space quantities. Thus, this paper proposes a geometrically-driven approach which fulfills the coplanarity condition and thereby requires no knowledge of object space data. Such an approach may prove useful not only for object space reconstruction but also as a preparatory step for application of bundle block adjustment and for outlier detection. All are key features in photogrammetric practices. Results show that no unique setup is needed for estimating the relative orientation parameters using the model and that high levels of accuracy can be achieved.     

基于GIS的探究式自然地理学野外实习平台系统

为更好地在自然地理学野外实践教学中贯彻以学生为本的教学理念,提出利用GIS技术开发探究式自然地理野外实习平台系统。该系统变革了传统的理论验证型和认知型实习模式,提高了学生实习的自主性和能动性。对探究式自然地理实习平台系统需求进行了分析,并根据该需求,对平台系统框架和功能进行了设计,对研制该系统的核心技术进行了深入研究,最后以庐山自然地理野外实习为例,对该系统进行了验证。验证结果表明该平台系统能够提高实习质量,增强学生学习自主性,具有重要的应用推广价值。     

三维倾斜界面PS转换波CMP道集时距及参数估计

在PS转换波资料处理过程中,往往需要联合P波资料提供相应的模型.在实际应用中存在P波和PS转换波层位对比困难.本文仅利用PS转换波数据,通过三维倾斜界面PS转换波CMP道集精确时距关系推导了近似时距解析表达式;分析了PS波的精确与近似时距关系随测线方位、界面倾角与倾向的变化规律及其拟合误差;并讨论了近似时距关系的三个时距参数随方位的变化特征;理论上给出描述时距的三维倾斜界面倾角、倾向、深度、纵波速度和横波速度这5个独立参数的估计方法,并通过理论模拟数据证明了该方法的可行性.     

Calibration of complex subsurface reaction models using a surrogate-model approach

Automatic calibration of complex subsurface reaction models involves numerous difficulties, including the existence of multiple plausible models, parameter non-uniqueness, and excessive computational burden. To overcome these difficulties, this study investigated a novel procedure for performing simultaneous calibration of multiple models (SCMM). By combining a hybrid global-plus-polishing search heuristic with a biased-but-random adaptive model evaluation step, the new SCMM method calibrates multiple models via efficient exploration of the multi-model calibration space. Central algorithm components are an adaptive assignment of model preference weights, mapping functions relating the uncertain parameters of the alternative models, and a shuffling step that efficiently exploits pseudo-optimal configurations of the alternative models. The SCMM approach was applied to two nitrate contamination problems involving batch reactions and one-dimensional reactive transport. For the chosen problems, the new method produced improved model fits (i.e. up to 35% reduction in objective function) at significantly reduced computational expense (i.e. 40–90% reduction in model evaluations), relative to previously established benchmarks. Although the method was effective for the test cases, SCMM relies on a relatively ad-hoc approach to assigning intermediate preference weights and parameter mapping functions. Despite these limitations, the results of the numerical experiments are empirically promising and the reasoning and structure of the approach provide a strong foundation for further development.     

Method of moments of the Halphen distribution parameters

Halphen laws have been proposed as a complete system of distributions with sufficient statistics that lead to estimation with minimum variance. The Halphen system provides a flexibility to fit a large variety of data sets from natural events. In this paper we present the method of moments (MM) to estimate the Halphen type B and IB distribution parameters. Their computation is very fast when compared to those given by the maximum likelihood method (ML). Furthermore, this estimation method is very easy to implement since the formulae are explicit. Some simulations show the equivalence of both methods when estimating the quantiles for finite sample size.     

Effect of soil parameter uncertainty on seismic demand of low-rise steel buildings on dense silty sand

Focusing on low-rise steel buildings supported by shallow isolated foundations on dense silty sand, this study demonstrates the effect of uncertainty in soil parameters on seismic response of structures. Considering a set of 20 ground motions representing 10% in 50 years hazard level and concentrating on peak base moment, base shear and interstory drift as the demand variables of interest, it is found that uncertainty in soil parameters may result in significant response variability of the structures, especially when vertical factor of safety is low and the structure is relatively stiff. Uncertainty in friction angle results in significant variability of the peak base moment and base shear, while peak interstory drift ratio is found to be virtually unaffected by uncertainty in soil parameters. It is also found that a linear soil–structure-interaction (SSI) model will not be able to predict such response variability under these set of ground motions.     

Simultaneous determination of aquifer parameters and zone structures with fuzzy c-means clustering and meta-heuristic harmony search algorithm

This study proposes an inverse solution algorithm through which both the aquifer parameters and the zone structure of these parameters can be determined based on a given set of observations on piezometric heads. In the zone structure identification problem fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering method is used. The association of the zone structure with the transmissivity distribution is accomplished through an optimization model. The meta-heuristic harmony search (HS) algorithm, which is conceptualized using the musical process of searching for a perfect state of harmony, is used as an optimization technique. The optimum parameter zone structure is identified based on three criteria which are the residual error, parameter uncertainty, and structure discrimination. A numerical example given in the literature is solved to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm. Also, a sensitivity analysis is performed to test the performance of the HS algorithm for different sets of solution parameters. Results indicate that the proposed solution algorithm is an effective way in the simultaneous identification of aquifer parameters and their corresponding zone structures.