Application of PP cluster method in the earthquake swarm analysis

ＡｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆＰＰｃｌｕｓｔｅｒｍｅｔｈｏｄｉｎｔｈｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓｗａｒｍａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＳｈｉ－ＹｏｎｇＺＨＯＵ；（周仕勇）Ｌｉｎｇ－ＲｅｎＺＨＵ；（朱令人）ａｎｄＣｈｕａｎ－ＬｉｎｇＤＥＮＧ（邓传玲）（Ｓｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃ...     

A METHOD FOR PREDICTING SHORT-AND MID-RANGE TURNING AND ACCELERATION MOTION TREND OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

An approach is proposed for predicting turning and acceleration motion trend of the tropicalcyclones over the South China Sea for 72 h in the extrapolated track coordinates.Cross-track(CT)and along-track(AT)components are defined according to the persistently extrapolatedtrack coodinates based on observed positions at the initial and past 24 h times.A kind of straight-forward measure may be provided with CT and AT components for typhoon turning motion and ac-celeration motion.Canonical correlation analysis(CCA)is performed to reveal the correlaotions be-tween tropical cyclone tracks and environmental 500 hPa geopotential height fields.A stepwise dis-criminate analysis technique is adopted to derive the classification functions of the respective threecategories for AT and CT components.Especially,categorical combinations of CT and AT compo-nents are divided into possible 9 regions corresponding with tropical cyclone behaviors.Not onlycan 9 motion trends of a tropical cyclone be predicted,but also the location and its maximum errorat least in certain direction are available.The perfect prediction(PP)verifications indicate that thepercent corrects for the CT and AT categories are 67% and 69% in the independent samples,73%and 53% in the dependent samples,respectively,higher than that of 33.3% for random chance;moreover,the rate for successfully forecasting that in which one of the nine regions the tropical cy-clones will fall at 72 h is about 40%,also higher than the stochastic probability of 11%.Themethod has been proved to be skillful and promising.     

台风暴雨PP预报工具

在总结以往台风暴雨预报经验的基础上，应用数值预报产品，建立了江苏省台风暴雨ＰＰ预报方程，利用Ｔ６３模式产品试验报检验表明，该方法具有实用价值，应用前景广阔。     

Petrological investigation of the Ganyu peridotite in the Sulu ultrahigh-pressure terrane, eastern China

The ultramafic body sampled in the Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling (CCSD) Hole PP3 is located in the eastern part of the Dabie-Sulu UHP metamorphic belt near Donghai County. It is about 480 m thick, and consists chiefly of garnet peridotite, dunite and serpentinite. The principal minerals include olivine, chromium spinel, diopside, enstatite, garnet with minor secondary augite, phlogopite and amphibole. Both the olivine and orthopyroxene are highly magnesian, and the garnet is pyropic with 5.4-6.4% CaO and 0.3-3.3% Cr₂O₃. Two generations of clinopyroxene are present; an early diopside followed by augite. Chromium spinels are highly variable with Cr#s (100Cr / (Cr + Al)) between 51 and 89, and their compositions reflect different processes of formation, namely partial melting and eclogite, amphibole and greenschist facies metamorphism. The Mg#s (100 Mg / (Mg + Fe²⁺))of the spinels correlate positively with the Cr#s but negatively with oxygen fugacity. Based on the spinel compositions the ultramafic rocks originated in the shallow mantle, then subducted to depths of more than 100 km and finally exhumed to the surface. They underwent partial melting at shallow depths, mostly in the spinel facies, and were later transformed into garnet peridotites during deep subduction. All of the rocks were weakly metasomatized during exhumation and were subjected to retrograde metamorphism.     

三分量地震散射波成像在天津蓟县城市活断层探测中的应用

在精细解决近地表地质问题方面,三分量地震探测技术具有明显的优势。笔者基于点散射地震-地质模型,推导出多分量散射波时距方程,在建立多分量散射波成像原理的基础上,对天津蓟县城市活断层探测的三分量地震资料进行处理。成像结果表明,基岩面的波组特征明显、构造内幕特征较丰富,而且基岩面附近的小断层发育。通过研究,基本明确了该地区基岩与第四系土层的接触关系,探明了山前断裂情况和基岩面附近的地质结构特征。