Sensitivity Analysis of Ensemble Simulations on a Torrential Rainfall Case over South China Using Multiple PBL and SL Parameterizations

A good representation of the interaction between the planetary boundary layer(PBL) and the surface layer(SL) in numerical models is of great importance for the prediction of the initiation and development of convection. This study examined an ensemble that consists of the available suites of PBL and SL parameterizations based on a torrential rainfall event over south China. The sensitivity of the simulations was investigated against objective measurements using multiple PBL and SL parameterization schemes. The main causes of the bias from different parameterization schemes were further analysed by comparing the good and bad ensemble members. The results showed that good members tended to underestimate the rainfall amount but presented a decent evolution of mesoscale convective systems that were responsible for the torrential rainfall. Using the total energy mass flux(TEMF) scheme, the bad members overestimated the amount and spatial coverage of rainfall. The failure of the bad member was due to a spurious convection initiation(CI) resulting from the overestimated high-θe elevated air. The spurious CI developed and expanded rapidly, causing intensive and extensive rainfall over south China. Consistent with previous studies, the TEMF scheme tends to produce a warmer and moister PBL environment. The detailed sensitivity analysis of this case may provide reference for the operational forecast of rainfall over south China using multiple PBL and SL parameterizations.     

边界层参数化和湿过程对切变线低涡发展影响的中尺度模拟

1981年8月14至22日,在青藏高原东侧陕、甘、川毗邻区,出现了一次持续暴雨过程.对其主过程的涡度诊断表明,切变线低涡初生於青藏高原东侧低空,其后,不仅出现了高、低空涡度中心的叠加和耦合过程,而且在行星边界层(PBL)内发生了迅速加强过程.这种过程与切变低涡的持续发展相伴. 一系列48和72小时中尺度数值模拟结果揭示:只有高分辨PBL参数化的湿物理过程,才能较好地模拟出切变低涡在PBL内的突然加强及其涡度演变和垂直结构;而总体PBL参数化,虽然其涡度演变和垂直结构也能基本模拟出来,但不能模拟出切变线低涡在PBL内的迅速加强;总体PBL参数化干过程的模拟结果指出,该方案较前两种湿过程方案均差,特别是被模拟系统的强度明显减弱,位置偏离. 模拟与诊断和观测之间的比较揭示,尽可能仔细地改进PBL参数化和湿物理过程,才有可能改进对这类中尺度系统发生和发展的模拟.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地大气边界层参数化方案的模拟评估

沙尘起沙、沉降、传输均受到沙漠地区大气边界层条件的制约。沙漠地区观测资料匮乏,限制大气边界层模拟效果的检验和评估。利用WRFV3.7.1中尺度数值模式中5种边界层参数化方案(ACM2、BL、MYJ、MYNN2.5、YSU),模拟2014年4月塔克拉玛干沙漠大气边界层特征,并与塔中80 m塔及风廓线雷达晴朗天气下的观测资料对比分析。结果表明:5种方案均能模拟出近地面气温及地表温度,边界层高度,感热、潜热、地表热通量的变化趋势,但未能模拟出边界层风速的日变化趋势,温风湿廓线能较好的反映晴日沙漠地区边界层结构的变化特征,但未模拟出风速随高度变化趋势。沙漠地区下垫面干燥,热容量低,晴天极易形成对流不稳定边界层,非局地湍流参数化方案,ACM2方案是沙漠地区大气边界层模拟较为合理的选择。     

CWRF边界层参数化对东亚近海热带气旋模拟的影响评估

基于CWRF模式结果,探讨了6种边界层参数化方案对30 a东亚近海热带气旋的强度、频数及路径模拟的可能影响。结果发现:CWRF模式中各边界层参数化方案模拟的热带气旋频数普遍较观测偏少,模拟强度相比观测也均偏弱。热带气旋的强度、频数及出现频次的空间分布对模式边界层方案的选取较为敏感。CAM3方案模拟强热带气旋的能力较其他方案偏好,ACM方案在多数年份模拟的热带气旋个数偏多,且在不同月份模拟的热带气旋生成频率与观测最接近,CAM3方案模拟的热带气旋出现频次与观测的偏差在大部分地区偏小。综合来看,CWRF模式中边界层参数化选用CAM3方案模拟热带气旋活动的性能较好。     

Comments on the Synergism Between the Analytic Planetary Boundary-Layer Model and Remote Sensing Data

This paper is adapted from a presentation at the session of the European Geophysical Society meeting in 2002 honouring Joost Businger. It documents the interaction of the non-linear planetary boundary-layer (PBL) model (UW-PBL) and satellite remote sensing of marine surface winds from verification and calibration studies for the sensor model function to the current state of verification of the model by satellite data. It is also a personal history where Joost Businger had seminal input to this research at several critical junctures. The first scatterometer in space was on SeaSat in 1978, while currently in orbit there are the QuikSCAT and ERS-2 scatterometers and the WindSat radiometer. The volume and detail of data from the scatterometers during the past decade are unprecedented, though the value of these data depends on a careful interpretation of the PBL dynamics. The model functions (algorithms) that relate surface wind to sensor signal have evolved from straight empirical correlation with simple surface-layer 10-m winds to satellite sensor model functions for surface pressure fields. A surface stress model function is also available. The validation data for the satellite model functions depended crucially on the PBL solution. The non-linear solution for the flow of fluid in the boundary layer of a rotating coordinate system was completed in 1969. The implications for traditional ways of measuring and modelling the PBL were huge and continue to this day. Unfortunately, this solution replaced an elegant one by Ekman with a stability/finite perturbation equilibrium solution. Consequently, there has been great reluctance to accept this solution. The verification of model predictions has been obtained from the satellite data.     

边界层湍流参数化改进对雾的模拟影响

为了提高边界层参数化在我国复杂下垫面上的描述能力,改善边界层能量和物质输送计算和检验其数值模拟效果,本文选取WRF三维模式,采用基于我国不同下垫面上的边界层观测资料改进的新MYNN（Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino）参数化方案对2009年3月17日黄海海雾以及2011年12月4日华北地区两次大雾过程进行模拟检验,探讨边界层参数化方案对雾和边界层结构模拟的影响。参照卫星云图和探空资料,边界层内云水混合比垂直积分的水平分布的模拟能力明显提高,反映了改进的MYNN方案能够更好地模拟出两次雾过程的发生、移动和雾区空间分布,更精确的云水混合比和温度的垂直分布能更好地给出雾区的垂直结构和稳定层结,同时可改善雾区低层位温以及比湿垂直分布的模拟。     

OBE理念结合PBL方法的遥感实验课程教学模式设计

新工科对新时代的遥感课程建设提出了新的改革要求,针对传统遥感课程教学方法单一、学生综合运用遥感技术解决实际问题能力不足的问题,本文在OBE理念的指导下,构建遥感实验课程案例库,运用翻转课堂与PBL项目驱动式教学方法,采用混合式全过程考核评价模式,创新了融合OBE理念和PBL方法的遥感实验课程教学模式.该教学模式涵盖了遥...     

Ensemble Square Root Filter Assimilation of Near-Surface Soil Moisture and Reference-Level Observations into a Coupled Land Surface-Boundary Layer Model

The potential for using the ensemble square root filter data assimilation technique to estimate soil moisture profiles, surface heat fluxes, and the state of the planetary boundary layer （PBL） is explored. An observing system simulation experiment is designed to mimic the assimilation of near-surface soil moisture observations （θo ） and in-situ measurements of 2-m temperature （To ）, 2-m specific humidity （Qo ）, and 10-m horizontal winds [Vo =（Uo , Vo ）]. The background forecasts are generated by a one-dimensional coupled land surface-boundary layer model （CLS-BLM） with soil, surface-layer and PBL parameterization schemes similar to those used in the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model. Soil moisture, surface heat fluxes, and the state of the PBL evolve on different characteristic timescales, so the minimum assimilation time intervals required for skillful estimates of each target component are different. Correct estimates of the soil moisture profile are obtained effectively when a 6-h update time interval is used, while skillful estimates of surface fluxes and the PBL state require more frequent updates. The CLS-BLM requires a shorter assimilation time interval to correctly estimate the soil moisture profile than previously indicated by experiments using an off-line land surface model （LSM）. Results from assimilating different subsets of observations show that θo makes a larger contribution to soil moisture estimates, while To , θo , and Vo are more important for estimates of surface heat fluxes and the PBL state. It is therefore necessary to combine these variables to accurately estimate the states of both the land surface and the PBL. Experimentation with different prescribed observational errors shows that the assimilation system is more sensitive to increases in observational errors than to reductions in observational errors.     

Numerical Study of a Mesoscale Vortex in the Planetary Boundary Layer of the Meiyu Front

It was found that the heavy rainfall event along the Meiyu front in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River on 23 June 2009 was connected with a mesoscale disturbance vortex, which originated from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and developed upward later and was discovered by using the Shuman-Shapiro filtering method. The mesoscale disturbance vortex in the PBL (PMDV) in this process corresponded well to the short-time rainstorm in the Doppler radar echo. Analysis of the high-resolution simulation results from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW) showed that there were several surface disturbances along the southern warm section of the Meiyu front prior to the generation of the PMDV. The PMDV interacted with the mesoscale convective system (MCS) and intensiˉed the local convective precipitation. The north and southwest flows in the PBL converged at the time of the PMDV formation. Meanwhile, a southwesterly jet on the top of the PBL to the south side of the vortex reinforced the ascending motion and convergence. Hence, it is concluded that the PMDV was generated when the strong cold air flows north of the shear line encountered the southwest flow south of the shear line. The convergence line in the PBL, the intensification of the southwest wind, and the southward aggression of the north wind were critical for the development of the PMDV. The release of latent heat was found crucial for the formation of the PMDV as it facilitated the convergence at low levels.     

用拉氏动力学理论研究PBL非均匀湍流扩散

将Gifford和Legg使用的拉氏动力学技巧从地面层延伸到行星边界层(PBL),讨论了平均风和湍流的垂直非均匀性以及大气稳定度对中尺度扩散特征的影响,得到了它们之间的解析表达式,理论结果与野外实测资料之间有较好的一致性.本文结果表明,经典的湍流统计理论不能直接用来研究中尺度范围的扩散,要合理地考虑动力学因子的影响.