Uncertainty in stage–discharge rating curves: application to Australian Hydrologic Reference Stations data

The purpose of this paper is to determine uncertainty in the gauged range of the stage–gauged discharge relationship for 622 rating curves from 171 Australian Bureau of Meteorology Hydrologic Reference streamgauging Stations (HRS). Water agencies use many methods to establish rating curves. Here we adopt a consistent method across all stations and develop rating curves based on Chebyshev polynomials, and estimate uncertainties from standard regression errors in which residuals from the polynomials are adjusted to ensure they are homoscedastic and normally distributed. Uncertainty in input water level is also taken into account. The median uncertainties in mean response of the available gauged discharge relationship at median daily discharges for the HRS dataset range from +4.5 to ?4.2% (95% confidence band) and for individual gaugings from +29 to ?22% incorporating a water level uncertainty of ±4 mm. The uncertainties estimated are consistent with values estimated in Australia and elsewhere.     

Geochemistry of organic matter and elements of black shale during weathering in Northern Guizhou,Southwestern China: Their mobilization and inter-connection

Different from previous studies on effect of weathering upon geochemical variation along a single weathered profile, this paper provides a new methodology validated by comparing a weathered outcrop samples and their stratigraphic counterpart un-weathered core samples in a nearby shallow borehole. This outcrop and borehole penetrated the Ordovician-Silurian Wufeng–Longmaxi shales, located in the same anticline structure in the northern part of Guizhou Province, Southern China. The mineral composition, major, trace and rare earth elements (REEs) composition and Rock-Eval parameters of outcrop and core samples were analyzed and compared. Organic matter (OM) was observed in the microscope and extracted for elements analysis. The results show that short-term weathering still has significant influence on OM, mineral and elemental composition of black shales. The elements composition shows the outcrop profile was moderately weathered. The REEs compositions do not alter much during weathering process and the REEs composition and their relative ratios still are valid for rock origin determination. The OM, mainly composed by graptolite and bitumen, even entering the highly-over thermal maturity, is still sensitive to the weathering with a systematic loss 30–50% of TOC along the outcrop profile, which suggests that the OM consumption is predominantly controlled by weathering duration and the distance from the weathering surface. In turn, OM has significant influence on the trace elements transportation behavior during weathering. Some trace elements associated with the OM such as V, Cr, Th, U, Ni and Co, change significantly in their absolute concentration during weathering, but their relative ratios do not necessarily change too much and might be still reliable proxies for paleo-environmental determination. The mobility of shale minerals during weathering is in the following order: plagioclase?>?potassium feldspar and dolomite >pyrite and OM. Short-term weathering can also result in considerable transportation of elements and significant variation of minerals content in black shale, which may pose potentially high environmental and engineering risk in the regions rich in black shale.     

Depositional setting,provenance, and tectonic-volcanic setting of Eocene–Recent deep-sea sediments of the oceanic Izu–Bonin forearc,northwest Pacific (IODP Expedition 352)

New biostratigraphical, geochemical, and magnetic evidence is synthesized with IODP Expedition 352 shipboard results to understand the sedimentary and tectono-magmatic development of the Izu–Bonin outer forearc region. The oceanic basement of the Izu–Bonin forearc was created by supra-subduction zone seafloor spreading during early Eocene (c. 50–51 Ma). Seafloor spreading created an irregular seafloor topography on which talus locally accumulated. Oxide-rich sediments accumulated above the igneous basement by mixing of hydrothermal and pelagic sediment. Basaltic volcanism was followed by a hiatus of up to 15 million years as a result of topographic isolation or sediment bypassing. Variably tuffaceous deep-sea sediments were deposited during Oligocene to early Miocene and from mid-Miocene to Pleistocene. The sediments ponded into extensional fault-controlled basins, whereas condensed sediments accumulated on a local basement high. Oligocene nannofossil ooze accumulated together with felsic tuff that was mainly derived from the nearby Izu–Bonin arc. Accumulation of radiolarian-bearing mud, silty clay, and hydrogenous metal oxides beneath the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) characterized the early Miocene, followed by middle Miocene–Pleistocene increased carbonate preservation, deepened CCD and tephra input from both the oceanic Izu–Bonin arc and the continental margin Honshu arc. The Izu–Bonin forearc basement formed in a near-equatorial setting, with late Mesozoic arc remnants to the west. Subduction-initiation magmatism is likely to have taken place near a pre-existing continent–oceanic crust boundary. The Izu–Bonin arc migrated northward and clockwise to collide with Honshu by early Miocene, strongly influencing regional sedimentation.     

江苏小庙洪牡蛎礁的地貌-沉积特征

利用卫星影象和野外实地勘察资料对江苏小庙洪牡蛎礁的地貌-沉积特征进行分析。结果表明，该牡蛎礁发育在强潮淤泥质潮坪上，造礁牡蛎主要是近江牡蛎和长牡蛎，表层的鲜活牡蛎为褶牡蛎。牡蛎礁区海水属盐度较高(27—30)的半成水，含沙量较大，为0．2—0．3g／L。活体牡蛎堆积体顶面高于周围潮间下带滩面1．0—1．5m。潮流较强，多在0．5—2．0m／s。海岸剖面可分为4个带，即礁后潮间带、潮沟、礁体生长带及礁前斜坡带。由于处于海岸侵蚀段，礁后潮坪缺失潮上带和大部分的潮间上带。礁后潮坪主要以粗粉砂为主，礁后潮沟冲淤变化较大，故礁体生长带时而为一沙洲，时而又与岸滩相连。礁体生长带分布在潮间下带，可看到独立的斑状礁体、带状礁体和大面积环状礁体群。环状礁的微地貌可以划分为礁塘(泻湖)、塘口和塘沟、塘口三角洲、礁墙和礁平台等。     

Developing markets for water reallocation: Revisiting the experience of Spanish water mercantilización

Economic instruments are being promoted as a desirable alternative to public sector action in the allocation and management of natural resources. A wide body of literature has developed that critically analyzes this phenomenon as part of a wider project of ‘neoliberalization of nature’, trying to uncover the underlying rationale and commonalities of geographically specific phenomena. The case of water is at the vanguard of these processes and is proving to be particularly contentious. In the European Union water policies are increasingly emphasizing the application of economic instruments to improve the allocative equity and economic efficiency in the use of scarce resources. However, there are few analyses of how these instruments are really working on the ground and whether they are meeting their objectives. This paper aims to contribute to this debate by critically analyzing the experience with water markets in Spain, the only country in the European Union where they are operative. It looks at water permit sales during the 2005–2008 drought period using the Tajo–Segura transfer infrastructure. The paper describes how the institutional process of mercantilización of water works in practice in Spain. It shows that the use of markets requires an intense process of institutional development to facilitate and encourage their operation. These institutions tend to favor the interests of clearly identifiable elites, instead of the public interest they supposedly promote.     

Hydro-climatic trends in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin,Ethiopia

Trends of the three hydro-meteorological variables precipitation, temperature and stream flow, represented by 13, 12, and 9 gauging stations, respectively, within the Abay/Upper Blue Nile basin have been studied to support water management in the region. The Trends were evaluated over different time periods depending on data availability at the stations. The statistical Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests have been used to assess trends and change points respectively. The tests have been applied to mean annual, monthly, seasonal, 1- and 7-days annual minimum and maximum values for streamflow, while mean annual, monthly and seasonal timescales were applied to meteorological variables. The results are heterogeneous and depict statistically significant increasing/decreasing trends. Besides, it showed significant abrupt change of point upward/downward shift for streamflow and temperature time series. However, precipitation time series did not show any statistically significant trends in mean annual and seasonal scales across the examined stations.Increasing trends in temperature at different weather stations for the mean annual, rainy, dry and small rainy seasons are apparent. The mean temperature at Bahir Dar – typical station in the Lake Tana sub basin, has been increasing at the rate of about 0.5 °C/decade, 0.3 °C/decade in rainy season (June–September), 0.6 °C/decade in small rainy season (March–May), and 0.6 °C/decade in dry season (October–February). Other stations in the Abay/Upper Blue Nile show comparable results. Overall it is found that trends and change point times varied considerably across the stations and catchment to catchment. Identified significant trends can help to make better planning decisions for water management. However, the cause attributes to the observed changes in hydro-meteorological variables need further research. In particular the combined effects of land use/land cover change and climate variability on streamflow of Abay/Blue Nile basin and its tributaries needs to be understood better.     

The influence of organic debris on channel morphology and bedload transport in a New Zealand forest stream

The behaviour and form of, and bedload sediment transport through, a 3.5 m wide forest stream have been monitored for nearly three years. Bedload transport is highly episodic and spatially variable, and is controlled less by water discharge than by sediment availability. Organic debris in the channel creates temporary base levels and sites at which coarse sediment may remain stored for long periods; collapse or disruption of log and debris jams makes sediment available for transport in only a small proportion of the runoff events that are actually competent to move the material. Even then, sediment travels only a short distance before being redeposited, frequently behind debris accumulations further downstream. Rates of sediment transport during a given runoff event can vary markedly over short distances along the stream, again depending on whether sediment was made available for transport by log jam collapse upstream. Organic debris is therefore a major constraint on the application of physical laws and theories to explaining sediment movement in, and the morphology of, this stream.     

Geology,ore facies and sulphur isotopes of the Koushk vent-proximal sedimentary-exhalative deposit,Posht-e-Badam Block,Central Iran

The Koushk zinc–lead deposit in the central part of the Zarigan–Chahmir basin, central Iran, is the largest of several sedimentary–exhalative (SEDEX) deposits in this basin, including the Chahmir, Zarigan, and Darreh-Dehu deposits. The host-rock sequence consists of carbonaceous, fine-grained black siltstone with interlayered rhyolitic tuffs. It corresponds to the upper part of the Lower Cambrian volcano-sedimentary sequence that was deposited on the Posht-e-Badam Block due to back-arc rifting of the continental margin of the Central Iranian Microcontinent. This block includes the late Neoproterozoic metamorphic basement of the Iran plate, overlain by rocks dating from the Early Cambrian to the Mesozoic. Based on ore body structure, mineralogy, and ore fabric, we recognize four different ore facies in the Koushk deposit: (1) a stockwork/feeder zone, consisting of a discordant mineralization of sulphides forming a stockwork of sulphide-bearing dolomite (quartz) veins cutting the footwall sedimentary rocks; (2) a massive ore/vent complex, consisting of massive replacement pyrite, galena, and sphalerite with minor arsenopyrite and chalcopyrite; (3) bedded ore, with laminated to disseminated pyrite, sphalerite, and galena; and (4) a distal facies, with minor disseminated and laminated pyrite, banded cherts, and disseminated barite. Carbonatization and sericitization are the main wall-rock alterations; alteration intensity increases towards the feeder zone. The δ³⁴S composition of pyrite, sphalerite, and galena ranges from?+6.5 to?+36.7‰. The highest δ³⁴S values correspond to bedded ore (+23.8 to?+36.7‰) and the lowest to massive ore (+6.5 to?+?17.8‰). The overall range of δ³⁴S is remarkably higher than typical magmatic values, suggesting that sulphides formed from the reduction of seawater sulphate by bacteriogenic sulphate reduction in a closed or semi-closed system in the bedded ore, whereas thermochemical sulphate reduction likely played an important role in the feeder zone. Sulphur isotopes, along with sedimentological, textural, mineralogical, and geochemical evidences, suggest that this deposit should be classified as a vent-proximal SEDEX ore deposit.     

Combining low-carbon economic development and oil exploration in Brazil? An energy–economy assessment

Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) pledged under the Paris Agreement has marked a new stage in its climate policy towards strengthening low-carbon economic development beyond the recent drastic cuts in emissions from deforestation. Brazil especially means to limit oil consumption driven by future economic growth and to increase energy efficiency and biofuel use in the transport sector. On the other hand, Brazil still aspires to become a major petroleum province given its huge reserves of ‘pre-salt’ oil. This article aims to clarify under what conditions low-carbon economic development and oil exploration can possibly be combined in Brazil and what would be the energy system, environmental and macroeconomic implications of enabling policies for doing so. To address these questions, an energy–economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Brazilian economy is used to simulate alternative scenarios up to 2030. The results first show that implementing the most recent energy plans, which take into account the new economic reality in Brazil, should lead to over 20% lower domestic CO₂ emissions in 2030 than the indicative NDC target, and to the export of the bulk of newfound crude oil. Second, with the same level of oil production, deeper domestic decarbonization, triggered by additional carbon pricing and sustainable efficiency measures, appears achievable with very small gross domestic product (GDP) loss and maximum oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway. However, (i) extra oil exports may induce net additional emissions outside Brazil and be seen as a perverse incentive and (ii) the economic growth strategy based on high oil exports may hinder the necessary diversification of the Brazilian economy.

Key policy insights

• Low-carbon development goals will strongly interact with oil policy in Brazil.

• The 2030 NDC target should be easy to achieve considering the new economic reality in Brazil.

• Deeper domestic decarbonization is achievable with very limited GDP loss and significant oil exports, while being aligned with a 2°C emission pathway.

• A broad strategic vision is needed to reconcile climate policy, energy policy and other economic development objectives.

     

Assessment of nutrient sources and paleoproductivity during the past century in Longgan Lake,middle reaches of the Yangtze River,China

Total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) were determined in combination with stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen (δ¹³C_Org, δ¹⁵N) in a 63 cm sediment core from Longgan Lake, located in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China. These geochemical and isotopic records provide a continuous history of lake productivity and trophic state of Longgan Lake since 1890. Variations of δ¹³C_Org, TOC, TN and TP indicate that primary productivity of Longgan Lake increased continuously during the last century and that the trophic state of the lake shifted from oligotrophic to mestrotrophic conditions accordingly. Anthropogenic sources of organic carbon (OC), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) were distinguished from their natural background in the sediments using mass accumulation rates. Element mass accumulation rates suggested increased human activities in the lake’s catchment since 1950s, were especially the utilization of artificial fertilizers amplified the anthropogenic input of N and P into the lake. In the course of the improved availability of dissolved nutrients also primary productivity of Longgan Lake increased, resulting in an increase of the Suess-effect corrected organic carbon isotope ratios. δ¹⁵N of bulk sediments show a marked shift towards lower values around 1950 that has been attributed to the input of nitrogen from chemical fertilizers characterized by relatively depleted isotopic signatures into the lake.