Global sensitivity analyses for a complex hydrological model applied in an Alpine watershed

The increasing complexity of hydrological models results in a large number of parameters to be estimated. In order to better understand how these complex models work, efficient screening methods are required in order to identify the most important parameters. This is of particular importance for models that are used within an operational real‐time forecasting chain such as HQsim. The objectives of this investigation are to (i) identify the most sensitive parameters of the complex HQsim model applied in the Alpine Lech catchment and (ii) compare model parameter sensitivity rankings attained from three global sensitivity analysis techniques. The techniques presented are the (i) regional sensitivity analysis, (ii) Morris analysis and (iii) state‐dependent parameter modelling. The results indicate that parameters affecting snow melt as well as processes in the unsaturated soil zone reveal high significance in the analysed catchment. The snow melt parameters show clear temporal patterns in the sensitivity whereas most of the parameters affecting processes in the unsaturated soil zone do not vary in importance across the year. Overall, the maximum degree day factor (meltfunc_max) has been identified to play a key role within the HQsim model. Although the parameter sensitivity rankings are equivalent between methods for a number of parameters, for several key parameters differing results were obtained. An uncertainty analysis demonstrates that a parameter ranking attained from only one method is subjected to large uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

螺髻山古冰川地质遗迹保护现状及对策

文章阐述该遗迹的独特性和重要性,并分析其保护现状及存在的问题。在借鉴国内外学者研究成果的基础上,提出遗迹保护的对策。     

Mass-radius curve for extrasolar Earth-like planets and ocean planets

By comparison with the Earth-like planets and the large icy satellites of the Solar System, one can model the internal structure of extrasolar planets. The input parameters are the composition of the star (Fe/Si and Mg/Si), the Mg content of the mantle (Mg# = Mg/[Mg + Fe]), the amount of H₂O and the total mass of the planet. Equation of State (EoS) of the different materials that are likely to be present within such planets have been obtained thanks to recent progress in high-pressure experiments. They are used to compute the planetary radius as a function of the total mass. Based on accretion models and data on planetary differentiation, the internal structure is likely to consist of an iron-rich core, a silicate mantle and an outer silicate crust resulting from magma formation in the mantle. The amount of H₂O and the surface temperature control the possibility for these planets to harbor an ocean. In preparation to the interpretation of the forthcoming data from the CNES led CoRoT (Convection Rotation and Transit) mission and from ground-based observations, this paper investigates the relationship between radius and mass. If H₂O is not an important component (less than 0.1%) of the total mass of the planet, then a relation (R/REarth)=ab(M/MEarth) is calculated with (a,b)=(1,0.306) and (a,b)=(1,0.274) for ¹⁰⁻²MEarth<M<MEarth and MEarth<M<10MEarth, respectively. Calculations for a planet that contains 50% H₂O suggest that the radius would be more than 25% larger than that based on the Earth-like model, with (a,b)=(1.258,0.302) for ¹⁰⁻²MEarth<M<MEarth and (a,b)=(1.262,0.275) for MEarth<M<10MEarth, respectively. For a surface temperature of 300 K, the thickness of the ocean varies from 150 to 50 km for planets 1 to 10 times the Earth's mass, respectively. Application of this algorithm to bodies of the Solar System provides not only a good fit to most terrestrial planets and large icy satellites, but also insights for discussing future observations of exoplanets.     

The H+ region contribution to [C ii] 158-μm emission

The [C  ii ]  158-μm  line is an important emission-line diagnostic in photodissociation regions (PDRs), but this emission line can also emerge from ionized gas. This work calculates the contribution of [C  ii ] emission from ionized gas over a wide range of parameter space by considering the simplified case of an H⁺ region and PDR in pressure equilibrium. Additionally, these calculations also predict the strong correlation observed between [N  ii ]  205-μm  emission and [C  ii ] discussed by previous authors. Overall, the results of these calculations have wide-ranging applications to the interpretation of [C  ii ] emission in astrophysical environments.     

Cyclic Shearing Deformation Behavior of Saturated Clays

The apparatus for static and dynamic universal triaxial and torsional shear soil testing is employed to perform stress-controlled cyclic single-direction torsional shear tests and two-direction coupled shear tests under unconsolidated-undrained conditions. Through a series of tests on saturated clay, the effects of initial shear stress and stress reversal on the clay’s strain-stress behavior are examined, and the behavior of pore water pressure is studied. The experimental results indicate that the patterns of stress-strain relations are distinctly influenced by the initial shear stress in the cyclic single-direction shear tests. When the initial shear stress is large and no stress reversal occurs, the predominant deformation behavior is characterized by an accumulative effect. When the initial shear stress is zero and symmetrical cyclic stress occurs, the predominant deformation behavior is characterized by a cyclic effect. The pore water pressure fluctuates around the confining pressure with the increase of cycle number. It seems that the fluctuating amplitude increases with the increase of the cyclic stress. But a buildup of pore water pressure does not occur. The de- formations of clay samples under the complex initial and the cyclic coupled stress conditions include the normal deviatoric deforma- tion and horizontal shear deformation, the average deformation and cyclic deformation. A general strain failure criterion taking into account these deformations is recommended and is proved more stable and suitable compared to the strain failure criteria currently used.     

On surface tension for compact stars

In an earlier analysis it was demonstrated that general relativity gives higher values of surface tension in strange stars with quark matter than neutron stars. We generate the modified Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equation to incorporate anisotropic matter and use this to show that pressure anisotropy provides for a wide range of behaviour in the surface tension than is the case with isotropic pressures. In particular, it is possible that anisotropy drastically decreases the value of the surface tension.     

On X-ray variability in narrow-line and broad-line active galactic nuclei

We propose a novel mathematical method to construct an exact polytropic sphere in self-gravitating hydrostatic equilibrium, improving the non-linear Poisson equation. The central boundary condition for the present equation requires a ratio of gas pressure to total one at the centre, which is uniquely identified by the whole mass and molecular weight of the system. The special solution derived from the Lane–Emden equation can be reproduced. This scheme is now available for modelling the molecular cloud cores in interstellar media. The mass–radius relation of the first core is found to be consistent with the recent results of radiation hydrodynamic simulations.     

Equation of state of neutron star cores and spin down of isolated pulsars

We study possible impact of a softening of the equation of state by a phase transition, or appearance of hyperons, on the spin evolution of isolated pulsars. Numerical simulations are performed using exact 2-D simulations in general relativity. The equation of state of dense matter at supranuclear densities is poorly known. Therefore, the accent is put on the general correlations between evolution and equation of state, and mathematical strictness. General conjectures referring to the structure of the one-parameter families of stationary configurations are formulated. The interplay of the back bending phenomenon and stability with respect to axisymmetric perturbations is described. Changes of pulsar parameters in a corequake following instability are discussed, for a broad choice of phase transitions predicted by different theories of dense matter. The energy release in a corequake, at a given initial pressure, is shown to be independent of the angular momentum of collapsing configuration. This result holds for various types of phases transition, with and without metastability. We critically review observations of pulsars that could be relevant for the detection of the signatures of the phase transition in neutron star cores. This work was partially supported by the Polish MNiI Grant no. 1P03D-008-27.     

Theoretical investigation of the cavity expansion problem based on a hypoplasticity model

The problem of the symmetric quasi‐static large‐strain expansion of a cavity in an infinite granular body is studied. The body is assumed to be dry or fully drained so that the presence of the pore water can be disregarded. Both spherical and cylindrical cavities are considered. Numerical solutions to the boundary value problem are obtained with the use of the hypoplastic constitutive relation calibrated for a series of granular soils. As the radius of the cavity increases, the stresses and the density on the cavity surface asymptotically approach limit values corresponding to a so‐called critical state. For a given soil, the limit values depend on the initial stresses and the initial density. A comparison is made between the solutions for different initial states and different soils. Applications to geotechnical problems such as cone penetration test and pressuremeter test are discussed. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Morphodynamics of an erodible channel under varying discharge

Alluvial channels arise through the interaction between morphology, hydraulics, and sediment transport, known as the ‘fluvial trinity’. Over relatively short timescales where climate and geology are fixed but discharge and sediment supply may vary, this process facilitates adjustments towards steady state, where the system oscillates around a mean condition. The relationship between changes in conditions and geomorphic response may be highly complex and nonlinear, especially in systems with multiple modes of adjustment. This study examines the adjustment of an erodible channel with fixed banks and a widely graded sediment mixture to successive increases in discharge. With each increase in discharge, components of the fluvial trinity adjusted towards a steady state. Particularly at relatively low discharges, adjustments were controlled by intrinsic thresholds and highlighted important morphodynamic processes. Notably, there was a strong interplay between channel morphology and sediment transport, and an effect whereby larger-than-average grains controlled channel deformation. These two processes occurred at the bar scale and were highly spatialised, which has two important implications: (1) reach-averaged representations of process provide only partial insight into morphodynamics; and (2) models of rivers that suppress these process feedbacks and size-dependent transport may not replicate morphodynamics that typically occur in field conditions. The experiments provide quantitative evidence for conceptual models describing exponential approaches towards steady state and the potential for transiency if disturbance frequency exceeds the recovery time. They also highlight how in natural rivers, particularly those with greater degrees of freedom for adjustment (notably, lateral adjustment and meandering), continuous changes in discharge may lead to nonlinear rather than steady-state behaviour. In these settings, more holistic analytical frameworks that embrace different aspects of the system are critical in understanding the direction, magnitude and timing of channel adjustments.