地震灾害产业关联损失评估

对地震产业关联损失的研究现状进行了总结,对标准投入产出表的构成及内在关系进行了介绍,给出了以投入产出表为基础的地震灾害产业关联损失评估方法。     

地质灾害危险性评估及其半定量分析法在罗家寨气田内部集输工程中的应用

罗家寨气田内部集输工程地质灾害危险性评估项目属于一级评估项目，我们在该项目中运用了GPS、遥感数字化正射影像地图等新技术、新方法，同时采用了灾损率（Zs）法、风险区划法半定量的综合评估方法，通过系统的整理第一手资料和综合分析，对本地区地质灾害危险性进行现状评估、预测评估和综合评估，评价工程建设用地适宜性并提出地质灾害的防治措施建议。     

河南省黄河中游水土流失区林业重点治理工程可行性研究

从项目建设的必要性和紧迫性、建设内容、效益分析等方面论证了项目的可行性。项目规划营造林３８．９万ｈｍ２,总投资１２．７７亿元。经测算,项目实施后,生态、社会、经济效益分别为４４．１７,１８．９５,１０３．７５亿元,综合效益达１６６．８７亿元,而且使项目区的水土流失基本得到控制,生态环境得到根本改善,抗御自然灾害的能力提高     

Accounting for Estimation Optimality Criteria in Simulated Annealing

This paper presents both estimation and simulation as optimization problems that differ in the optimization criteria, minimization of a local expected loss for estimation and reproduction of global statistics (semivariogram, histogram) for simulation. An intermediate approach is proposed whereby an initial random image is gradually modified using simulated annealing so as to better match both local and global constraints. The relative weights of the different constraints in the objective function allow the user to strike a balance between smoothness of the estimated map and reproduction of spatial variability by simulated maps. The procedure is illustrated using a synthetic dataset. The proposed approach is shown to enhance the influence of observations on neighboring simulated values, hence the final realizations appear to be better conditioned to the sample information. It also produces maps that are more accurate (smaller prediction error) than stochastic simulation ignoring local constraints, but not as accurate as E-type estimation. Flow simulation results show that accounting for local constraints yields, on average, smaller errors in production forecast than a smooth estimated map or a simulated map that reproduces only the histogram and semivariogram. The approach thus reduces the risk associated with the use of a single realization for forecasting and planning.     

Chemical ozone loss in the Arctic vortex in the winter 1995–96: HALOE measurements in conjunction with other observations

Severe chemical ozone loss has been detected in the Arctic in the winter and spring of 1995–96 by a variety of methods. Extreme reductions in column ozone due to halogen catalysed chemistry were derived from measurements of the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite in the Arctic vortex. Here, we discuss further aspects of the HALOE observations in the Arctic over this period. Potential problems, both in the data themselves and in the methodology of the data analysis are considered and the reason for the differences between the Arctic ozone losses deduced from HALOE data version 17 and 18 is analysed. Moreover, it is shown that HALOE measurements in the Arctic in winter and spring 1995–96 compare well with observations by other ground-based and satellite instruments.     

新疆破坏性地震损失“盲估”方法

通过总结新疆近年来的震害预测研究成果和震害损失评估工作的实践,给出了震后损失快速评估方法－“盲估”方法。提出今后震灾评估的发展方向是建立震后趋势快速判定计算机管理系统。     

震后经济损失及人员伤亡快速预估方法

为快速了解破坏性地震发生后建筑物破坏所造成的人员伤亡和经济损失,合理投入救灾所需人、财、物,便于领导决策和指挥,提出震后经济损失和人员伤亡快速预估方法。依据地震发生的基本参数、地震地质条件等预估灾害范围、建筑物破坏程度、经济损失、人员伤亡等情况,给出地震发生早期影响尺度的快速预测结果。     

Theoretical investigation of large-amplitude waves in granular soils

A theoretical investigation of plane waves in granular soils is presented. Dynamic equations are derived with the use of the hypoplasticity theory for granular materials. For numerical calculations the material parameters of Karlsruhe sand are used. Wave speeds as slopes of characteristics of the dynamic equations are calculated for various stresses and densities. It is shown that under certain conditions the dynamic equations lose hyperbolicity and the initial boundary value problem thus becomes ill-posed. Two types of ill-posedness are found, known as flutter ill-posedness and stationary discontinuity. The latter is shown to arise at higher shear stress than the former. A comparison is made between dynamic ill-posedness and stability of static equilibrium. With the use of the second-order work stability criterion it is found that the dynamic equations lose hyperbolicity when the static equilibrium under a dead load is still stable. Numerical solutions to the problem of propagation of boundary disturbance in a half-space are obtained. Owing to dilatancy and contractancy of the granular material, a purely transverse disturbance induces a longitudinal component of velocity in the wave, and vice versa.     

上海旱地农田氮磷随地表径流流失研究

选择上海宝山罗店镇具有代表性的旱地蔬菜农田生态系统，从2004年3月到8月的近半年时间里，通过对径流及径流中侵蚀泥沙的氮磷流失情况的连续监测，研究了旱地农田施肥与氮磷流失污染之间的关系，探讨了农田氮磷的迁移特征及环境效应，主要结果表明：当季施用化肥的地表径流总流失量，总氮为32．77kg/hm^2，总磷为8．1kg／hm^2，随径流排出农田的氮素中有37．7％是当季施用的氮素化肥，磷素中有26．9％是当季施用的磷素化肥；从过量施肥与环境污染之间的“因”与“果”来看，减量15％施肥区相比常规施肥区的茄子的产量减少2．7％，但是其污染负荷却减少了13．4％，表明在化肥利用的有效性上或增施化肥与控制环境污染之间，应该寻找一个最佳的平衡点。     

New INTEGRAL sources and TeV emission

INTEGRAL is operational since more than three years and producing high quality data that allows to detect fainter new hard X-ray sources. The new sources, identified until now, are mostly active galactic nuclei and absorbed or transient high mass X-ray binaries. TeV emission could be expected from the new high mass X-ray binaries accreting dense clumps of stellar wind. INTEGRAL sources with TeV counterparts are discussed. Based on observations with INTEGRAL, an ESA project with instruments and science data centre funded by ESA member states (especially the PI countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Spain), Czech Republic and Poland, and with the participation of Russia and the USA.