走滑断裂型地震诱发的滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布差异

以玉树地震滑坡为实例,选择高程、坡度、坡向、坡位、水系、地层岩性、同震地表破裂、地震动峰值加速度(PGA)8个因子,以地震滑坡面积百分比(LAP)与滑坡点密度(LND)为指标,研究走滑断裂型地震诱发滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布差异。在分析这些影响因子的断裂两盘的差异的基础上,基于LAP与LND两个指标详细分析断裂两盘每个因子内部级别滑坡发育的情况。结果表明,总体上北盘的滑坡较南盘发育,除了个别因子级别内南北盘滑坡差别较大外,大部分表现为南北盘滑坡分布情况类似。总之,玉树地震滑坡在断裂两盘的空间分布基本类似,只是在某些因子分级内存在一定的差异。     

基于联系期望的库岸泥石流危险性评价以乌东德库区为例

库岸泥石流危险性评价, 受具有随机性、非线性与未确知性特点的诸多因素的影响与控制, 是一个极其复杂的难题。以金沙江下游乌东德库区为例, 据其特有的地质环境条件, 选取爆发历史、地质条件、地形条件、诱发因素共4类10种泥石流影响因子, 并建立分级标准将库岸泥石流危险性分为4个等级:极度危险、高度危险、中度危险、轻度危险。应用集对分析理论分析利用区间数表示的泥石流影响因子, 建立了基于联系期望概念的库岸泥石流危险性评价新模型, 可统一分析泥石流危险性评价指标的区间形式及演化态势。实例分析结果表明, 该方法评判结果可靠, 且能简化区间数关系的分析过程。     

高雷诺数顶盖驱动方腔流实验

为得到高雷诺数(1×105~1×106)条件下顶盖驱动方腔水流流场和速度分布,设计了边长为0.2 m和0.5 m的立方腔,并利用粒子图像测速技术(Particle Image Velocimetry,PIV)对方腔流流场进行测量,分析方腔流流场特性和边壁对流场影响规律。结果表明:雷诺数达到5×105时方腔流中主涡旋发生变形,雷诺数从5×105增大到1×106过程中,中间的初级涡旋(Primary eddy,PE)继续变形,并分裂成两个涡旋;随着雷诺数的增大,顺流次级涡旋(Downstream Secondary Eddy Region,DSE)区域面积缩小,雷诺数为5×105时DSE区域可看到成型的涡旋,当雷诺数为1×106时,DSE区域继续缩小,在同样条件下看不到成型的涡旋;雷诺数增大的过程中各边壁的边界层变薄,边壁对方腔流流场特性影响明显。     

Earth’s deformation due to the dynamical perturbations of the fluid outer core

The elasto-gravitational deformation response of the Earth’s solid parts to the perturbations of the pressure and gravity on the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and the solid inner core boundary (ICB), due to the dynamical behaviors of the fluid outer core (FOC), is discussed. The internal load Love numbers, which are formulized in a general form in this study, are employed to describe the Earth’s deformation. The preliminary reference Earth model (PREM) is used as an example to calculate the internal load Love numbers on the Earth’s surface, CMB and ICB, respectively. The characteristics of the Earth’s deformation variation with the depth and the perturbation periods on the boundaries of the FOC are also investigated. The numerical results indicate that the internal load Love numbers decrease quickly with the increasing degree of the spherical harmonics of the displacement and depend strongly on the perturbation frequencies, especially on the high frequencies. The results, obtained in this work, can be used to construct the boundary conditions for the core dynamics of the long-period oscillations of the Earth’s fluid outer core. Foundation item: State Natural Science Foundation of China (40174022 and 49925411) and the Projects from Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-106 and KZ952-J1-411).     

Conditioning of the stationary kriging matrices for some well-known covariance models

In this paper, the condition number of the stationary kriging matrix is studied for some well-known covariance models. Indeed, the robustness of the kriging weights is strongly affected by this measure. Such an analysis can justify the choice of a covariance function among other admissible models which could fit a given experimental covariance equally well.     

Effect of Material Anisotropy on the Onset of Convective Flow in Three-Dimensional Fluid-Saturated Faults

In order to investigate the effect of material anisotropy on convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated faults, an exact analytical solution for the critical Rayleigh number of three-dimensional convective flow has been obtained. Using this critical Rayleigh number, effects of different permeability ratios and thermal conductivity ratios on convective instability of a vertically oriented three-dimensional fault have been examined in detail. It has been recognized that (1) if the fault material is isotropic in the horizontal direction, the horizontal to vertical permeability ratio has a significant effect on the critical Rayleigh number of the three-dimensional fault system, but the horizontal to vertical thermal conductivity ratio has little influence on the convective instability of the system, and (2) if the fault material is isotropic in the fault plane, the thermal conductivity ratio of the fault normal to plane has a considerable effect on the critical Rayleigh number of the three-dimensional fault system, but the effect of the permeability ratio of the fault normal to plane on the critical Rayleigh number of three-dimensional convective flow is negligible.     

长江流域夏季日面雨量精度与不同站数间关系研究

为探讨不同测量站配置数对统计长江流域夏季日面雨量精度的影响,选取金沙江下游、鄂东北、青弋水阳江3个流域作为研究对象,并挑选出不同站网分布,统计各站网分布计算的2016—2018年夏季日面雨量,运用平均绝对误差（MAE）、均方差（MSE）和相关系数（r）三个技术指标来评价各流域夏季日面雨量精度与站数之间的关系。结果表明：各流域夏季日面雨量精度均受站数变化的影响,MAE、MSE均随站数的增加而减小,但当站数增加到一定数量之后趋于稳定,r也有相同的变化规律,只是随站数增加而增大。同时,通过计算三个技术指标随站数平均变化值,定量揭示了以上变化规律并得到金下、鄂东北、青弋水阳江流域代表性站数分别为405站、293站、126站,与现有站数相比,分别减少25.1%、55.8%、56.6%,可为计算长江流域夏季日面雨量选用站数和站网布局提供参考。     

弹性介质边坡模糊有限元方法研究

针对弹性介质体边坡内存在的模糊特性,从弹性力学的基本方程式入手,应用模糊运算法则、模糊积分和模糊微分等方法,推导了弹性力学几何方程、物理方程和平衡方程的模糊表达形式。利用最小模糊位能原理,建立了考虑多参数模糊性的模糊有限元控制方程。数值算例表明,弹性介质体边坡考虑模糊特性影响的情况下的分析成果,能更全面地反映出计算参数模糊特性变化引起的边坡内力和位移的改变情况。     

多参数特征值问题的敏度分析

研究多参数系统单特征值及相应特征向量的向后误差及条件数。发展Hochstenbach和Plestenjak近期得到的一些结果。     

Lectotype Optimization of Offshore Platforms by Use of Three-Scale Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process

A Three-Scale Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (T-FAHP) is proposed by introducing the Three-Scale Analytical Hierarchy Process (T-AHP) and the trapezoid fuzzy number. A multi-objective optimization model based on the T-FAHP is presented subsequently, in which many factors influencing the lectotype of offshore platform are taken into account synthetically, such as the original investment, the maintenance cost, the ability of resisting fatigue and corrosion, the construction period, the threat to the environment, and so on. With this method, the experts can give the relatively precise ranking weight of each index and at the same time the requirement of consistence checking can be met. The result of a calculation example shows that the T-FAHP is practical.