全球资料同化中误差协方差三维结构的准确估计与应用Ⅱ:背景误差协方差调整与数值试验分析

利用NMC方法针对背景误差协方差的方差、三维相关与特征长度来揭示T213L31模式的误差主要特点,并与传统更新矢量方法的计算结果进行了对比与调整。结果表明NMC方法结果与更新矢量方法结果在大体特征上基本吻合,但细节上的差异不可忽视,特别是对背景误差方差与特征长度的估计存在显著的差异,其主要原因是NMC方法倾向于高估天气尺度波的背景误差,而低估次天气尺度到中尺度波的背景误差。通过对背景误差方差、特征长度的调整,显著改善了背景误差功率谱的分布特点,使得NMC方法结果与更新矢量方法结果更为吻合。通过三维变分同化与最优插值中观测与背景误差相对重要性的比较,发现两者结果基本一致,但三维变分同化在850 hPa以下的温度场和300 hPa以上的风场统计结果都表现出背景误差相对于观测误差偏小的特点。背景误差相对于观测误差偏小有助于保证分析场中质量场与风场平衡,消除了大气底层和高层质量场与风场不匹配现象。在数值试验中,针对不同的背景误差均方差与特征长度的特点,分析了分析增量和预报效果的差异,结果表明,准确的背景误差估计与优化工作改善了预报效果,使得北半球三维变分同化的120 h预报效果整体好于现有最优插值。     

THE TEST OF APPLYING RADAR TREC WIND IN THREE-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL ASSIMILATION

1 INTRODUCTIONThat the radar data are reasonably ingested into theassimilation analysis system to improve the analysisquality and prediction precision is one of the problemsmeteorologists currently try to resolve. Many scholarshave already obtained some r…     

NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF THE MECHANICS OF SOIL REINFORCEMENT

1 INTRODUCTION China is rich in mountains. The mountainous area occupies 69% of the total land of the country. Thus, landslides frequently occur in the mountain areas of China. Landslides originating in subsurface soils are typical, and constitute approxi…     

Upscaling: Effective Medium Theory, Numerical Methods and the Fractal Dream

Upscaling is a major issue regarding mechanical and transport properties of rocks. This paper examines three issues relative to upscaling. The first one is a brief overview of Effective Medium Theory (EMT), which is a key tool to predict average rock properties at a macroscopic scale in the case of a statistically homogeneous medium. EMT is of particular interest in the calculation of elastic properties. As discussed in this paper, EMT can thus provide a possible way to perform upscaling, although it is by no means the only one, and in particular it is irrelevant if the medium does not adhere to statistical homogeneity. This last circumstance is examined in part two of the paper. We focus on the example of constructing a hydrocarbon reservoir model. Such a construction is a required step in the process of making reasonable predictions for oil production. Taking into account rock permeability, lithological units and various structural discontinuities at different scales is part of this construction. The result is that stochastic reservoir models are built that rely on various numerical upscaling methods. These methods are reviewed. They provide techniques which make it possible to deal with upscaling on a general basis. Finally, a last case in which upscaling is trivial is considered in the third part of the paper. This is the fractal case. Fractal models have become popular precisely because they are free of the assumption of statistical homogeneity and yet do not involve numerical methods. It is suggested that using a physical criterion as a means to discriminate whether fractality is a dream or reality would be more satisfactory than relying on a limited data set alone.     

Seasonal fluctuations in the deep central equatorial Atlantic Ocean: a data–model comparison

Low-frequency current fluctuations in the deep central equatorial Atlantic are analyzed using current meter measurements recorded from November 1992 to November 1994. Current meters were located at about 14°W of longitude and 1° of latitude on both sides of the equator between 1,700 m depth and the ocean bottom. At all sampling depths, the velocity fluctuations are dominantly zonal and symmetrical with respect to the equator. At 1,700 and 2,000 m, the flow is dominated by annual period fluctuations, at 3,000 m, the velocity field amplitude presents a minimum, and at 3,750 and 3,950 m, the flow is modulated by annual and semiannual period variability. The annual signal exhibits an apparent upward phase propagation. When considering the phase and the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuations, the data compare well with the outputs of a realistic numerical simulation of the Atlantic Ocean. Together with a previous analysis of the model simulations, this supports the idea that the observed annual fluctuations are due to wind-forced vertically propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. Data and model do not provide deciding evidences of the presence of semiannual equatorial waves deeper than 3,500 m depth in the central equatorial Atlantic Ocean.     

On the evaluation of sediment transport models in tidal environments

The application of numerical models for the simulation of coastal hydro-and sediment dynamics requires model verification, calibration and validation with field data. Yet, no commonly accepted rules for the evaluation of sediment transport models exist. This paper discusses the significance of statistical parameters and their limitations considering common time lags in tidal environments. It is shown that the occasionally used discrepancy ratio lacks quantitative and qualitative information on model performance, as the time context information on time series characteristics is lost. As an initial measure of association, the simple linear correlation coefficient r² is proposed. To account for time lag errors in suspended transport models, a separate cross-correlation analysis for the flood and ebb tidal phase is proposed. For a comparison with other model applications, a concluding rating of model performance can be expressed by a dimensionless error definition which takes into account the quality of field data.     

以高斯理论为基础计算弯曲钻孔节点空间坐标

为了拟合出更加接近钻孔实际的曲线,结合钻孔测斜实际,以严密的高斯理论为基础,给出了以钻孔天顶角和倾角为参数的弯曲钻孔的参数方程。并在此基础上,推出了钻孔曲线各点的计算公式,更准确地描述了钻孔的实际情况,为后续工作剖面图的绘制和储量计算提供了基础。这里使用高斯和折线法作为一个实例,对比计算了赤土店铅锌矿区ZK13002钻孔。计算结果表明:在钻孔曲线形状、累计弧长、插值点特征等多个方面的高斯法都优于折线法,而因算法的改变引起的工作量又是很小的。     

Shallow landslides in deeply weathered slates of the Sierra de Collcerola (Catalonian Coastal Range, Spain)

Stability conditions in an area located NW of Barcelona (Spain) are discussed. Here, several mass movements were observed, mainly affecting weathered Paleozoic slates. Many of these failures involved slopes cut along recent infrastructures: debris flows, wedge and plane failures, generally surficial, occurred more frequently. After a detailed geological and geomorphologic survey, geomechanic characterization was carried out, according to RMR and SMR classifications. This rating gave a prediction of slope behaviour, in fairly good agreement with the real observed one.

Stability numerical analysis was carried out for the main cut slopes, based upon the Limit Equilibrium Method. First of all, the deterministic factor of safety was computed using the mean values of parameters. After that, a simulation technique based upon the Monte Carlo Method was applied in order to obtain factor of safety distributions. The probability of failure was estimated as P(F<1).

Finally, results from deterministic and probabilistic approaches were compared. The effectiveness of different possible remedial measures was highlighted by means of a sensitivity analysis, which showed that the more important parameters in the study area are the geometrical ones (height, slope and failure plane angles). The final technical solutions adopted are briefly outlined.     

Application of the DDM and fracture mechanics model on the simulation of rock breakage by mechanical tools

A DDM (displacement discontinuity method) program coupled with a modified energy criterion is used to simulate the development of cracks and chips by indentation tools. In our analysis a cavity model is applied to represent the expansion of crushed rock to the surrounding rock and the cracks are formedin two-dimensional and quasi-static conditions. The model parameters, rock properties and load magnitudes are varied in the numerical calculations. The results show that chips are formed by multiple mechanisms of either tension or shear, or their combinations. The cracks may either propagate to the free surface to form chips or rest in the rock subsurface. The crack development is dependent upon rock and fracture properties, loading force and tool characteristics. The DDM is a convenient tool in the study of rock fragmentation and cracks.     

A hybrid discrete-continuum approach to model hydro-mechanical behaviour of jointed rocks

A hybrid discrete-continuum approach has been presented in this paper to simulate water flow in the near and far fields of deformable fractured rocks. In the near field, the discrete model is used; while in the far field, the equivalent continuum model is employed. The discrete element method (with the static relaxation algorithm) is used in the near field and the boundary integral equation method in the far field. Along the interface of these two domains, both mechanical and hydraulic compatibility conditions are satisfied. Fully coupled hydro-mechanical analysis can be conducted in the combined near and far fields. Application to a dam foundation problem has demonstrated the capability of the developed approach.