Sea Surface Temperature Extremes of Different Intensity in the China Seas During the Global Warming Acceleration and Hiatus Periods

Based on the daily OISST V2 with 0.25o horizontal resolutions, we study the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) extremes in the China Seas for different segments of the period 1982-2013. The two segments include the warming acceleration period from 1982 to 1997 and hiatus period from 1998 to 2013 when the global surface mean temperature (GSMT) was not significantly warming as expected during the past decades, or even cooling in some areas. First, we construct the regional average time series over the entire China Seas (15o–45oN, 105o–130oE) for these SST extremes. During the hiatus period, the regionally averaged 10th, 1th and 0.1th percentile of SSTs in each year decreased significantly by 0.40°C, 0.56°C and 0.58°C per decade, respectively. The regionally averaged 90th, 99th and 99.9th percentile of SSTs in each year decreased slightly or insignificantly. Our work confirmed that the regional hiatus was primarily reflected by wintertime cold extremes. Spatially, the trends of cold extremes in different intensity were non-uniformly distributed. Cold extremes in the near-shore areas are much more sensitivity to the global warming hiatus. Hot extremes trends exhibited non-significant tendency in the China Seas during the hiatus period. In word, the variations of the SST extremes in the two periods were non-uniform spatially and asymmetric seasonally. It is unexpected that the hot and cold extremes of each year in 1998–2013 were still higher than those extremes in 1982–1997. It is obvious that relative to the warming acceleration period, hot extremes are far more likely to occur in the recent hiatus as a result of a 0.3°C warmer shift in the mean temperature distribution. Moreover, hot extremes in the China Seas will be sustained or amplified with the end of warming hiatus and the continuous anthropogenic warming.     

Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River,west coast of India

Abstract

A hydrological modelling framework was assembled to simulate the daily discharge of the Mandovi River on the Indian west coast. Approximately 90% of the west-coast rainfall, and therefore discharge, occurs during the summer monsoon (June–September), with a peak during July–August. The modelling framework consisted of a digital elevation model (DEM) called GLOBE, a hydrological routing algorithm, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model with Biogeochemistry (THMB), an algorithm to map the rainfall recorded by sparse raingauges to the model grid, and a modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. A series of discharge simulations (with and without the SCS method) was carried out. The best simulation was obtained after incorporating spatio-temporal variability in the SCS parameters, which was achieved by an objective division of the season into five regimes: the lean season, monsoon onset, peak monsoon, end-monsoon, and post-monsoon. A novel attempt was made to incorporate objectively the different regimes encountered before, during and after the Indian monsoon, into a hydrological modelling framework. The strength of our method lies in the low demand it makes on hydrological data. Apart from information on the average soil type in a region, the entire parameterization is built on the basis of the rainfall that is used to force the model. That the model does not need to be calibrated separately for each river is important, because most of the Indian west-coast basins are ungauged. Hence, even though the model has been validated only for the Mandovi basin, its potential region of application is considerable. In the context of the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) framework, the potential of the proposed approach is significant, because the discharge of these (ungauged) rivers into the eastern Arabian Sea is not small, making them an important element of the local climate system.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Suprit, K., Shankar, D., Venugopal, V. and Bhatkar, N.V., 2012. Simulating the daily discharge of the Mandovi River, west coast of India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 686–704.     

Empirical models of rain-spells characteristics – A case study of a Mediterranean-arid climatic transect

Environmental (geomorphological, hydrological and ecological) processes are controlled by rainfall, particularly in the Mediterranean, semi-arid and arid regions. Rainfall was analyzed using the concept of rain-spells, i.e., a period of successive rain days preceded and followed by at least one day without rainfall. Daily data from 13 stations along a climatic transect extending from the Judean Mountains with a Mediterranean climate to the Dead Sea arid region in Israel were studied. Rain-spell characteristics (number, yield and duration), based on these data, are presented for different rainfall thresholds, which might be used for different environmental processes such as rock weathering, soil organic matter dynamics, landslides, overland flow and floods and soil erosion. Three estimation models have been developed in order to predict the mean annual Number of Rain-Spells (NRS), mean Rain-Spell Yield (RSY), and mean Rain-Spell Duration (RSD) for the mean annual rainfall and for any given rainfall threshold. These models can be used for current climatic conditions and for scenarios in which the rainfall total changes.     

Determination of the 3D structure of an earthflow by geophysical methods: The case of Super Sauze, in the French southern Alps

In order to evaluate the risk associated by an earthflow to abruptly evolve into a torrential flow, the knowledge of its internal structure is necessary. Geotechnical methods are important to reach this goal. However, because of the rough topography associated with earthflows, their surface heterogeneities, and the spatial variations of the thickness of the potentially moving mass, non-intrusive geophysical methods offer a very useful tool that complements traditional geotechnical methods. We report the results of a comprehensive study covering a 150 m by 200 m area of the Super Sauze earthflow. This earthflow developed in black marls in the southern French Alps. Shallow electrical conductivity investigations, derived using low frequency domain electromagnetics, maps hidden gullies and crests and lateral variations of the clay and the water content within the first 5 m below the ground surface. Electrical resistivity tomography allows to extrapolate this information down to 10 m below the ground surface along selected transects. The vertical structure of the earthflow, down to the substratum, is defined precisely thanks to joint inversion of DC and TDEM vertical soundings along one profile: the flowing upper layer and the position of the substratum are clearly evidenced. Combining this geophysical datasets with geotechnical tests and drill holes, we provide an estimate of both the location and the volume of the potentially most dangerous areas of the earthflow.     

Conditional Entropy

In this paper we show that the Conditional Entropy of nearby orbits may be a useful tool to explore the phase space associated to a given Hamiltonian. The arc length parameter along the orbits, instead of the time, is used as a random variable to compute the entropy. In the first part of this work we summarise the main analytical results to support this tool while, in the second part, we present numerical evidence that this technique is able to localise (stable) periodic and quasiperiodic orbits, 'aperiodic' orbits (chaotic motion) and unstable periodic orbits (the 'source' of chaotic motion). Besides, we show that this technique provides a measure of chaos which is similar to that given by the largest Lyapunov Characteristic Number. It is important to remark that this method is very simple to compute and does not require long time integrations, just realistic physical times. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

《地球学报》2005—2018年主要期刊评价指标变化趋势分析

期刊评价指标能定量评价期刊的相互影响和相互作用,正确评估期刊在科学交流体系中的作用和地位.本文基于2006—2019年版《中国科技期刊引证报告(核心版)》收录的统计数据,选取了《地球学报》期刊被引用计量指标(核心总被引频次、核心影响因子)、期刊来源计量指标(来源文献量、平均引文数、基金论文比)、学科分类内期刊计量指标(综合评价总分、学科扩散指数、学科影响指标),分析了其变化趋势,结论如下:核心总被引频次、平均引文数、学科扩散指数、学科影响指标显著提高;核心影响因子和综合评价总分波动式上升;来源文献量、基金论文比基本保持稳定.上述研究表明,《地球学报》学术质量和影响力不断提升,科学交流程度和吸收外部信息能力显著增强,这与其近年来实施的一系列影响力提升措施密切相关,如注重文章质量和原始创新性,树立精品意识;辟特色栏目,推优秀专辑;独特的封面设计理念及"封面故事";注重编辑与出版质量;关注出版行业和期刊发展动态等.     

弹性介质中密度ρ与拉梅常数λ、μ的衍射层析成像方法研究

利用接收到的纵波信息，通过解纵波方程得到介质的密度和拉梅常数分布函数．首先，在频率波数域建立了描述入射纵波信号、接收纵波信号和介质三参数扰动量之间关系的积分方程．然后，建立了关于接收信号的各频率成份的方程组．经过正反傅氏变换求解此方程组即可得到介质三参数的分布函数．最后，就跨孔观测系统进行了数值模拟成像试验。结果表明方法有效．     

南极乔治王岛象海豹数量的初步估计

本文通过对南极乔治王岛象海豹数量的观察,初步估计了该处的种群数量;期望能为南极象海豹资源的开发和利用提供依据。     

Advances in Polar Science CONTENTS(Volume 25,2014)

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Development of a robust runoff-prediction model by fusing the Rational Equation and a modified SCS-CN method

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop a Modified Rational Equation (MoRE) that combines the advantages of the Rational Equation (e.g. simplicity and global acceptance) and those of the standard US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method (e.g. easy parameterization and extensive verification across the world). Herein, the hypothesis is that the MoRE is more accurate, consistent and robust than the SCS-CN method and its improved versions in predicting runoff in watersheds with limited data. The MoRE was designed to have a simple structure that is described by four intrinsic parameters: CN, permanent wilting point, field capacity and saturation soil moisture, and does not include initial abstraction as a variable. An evaluation of 77 USDA small agricultural watersheds indicated that CN of the MoRE has different physical meanings from CN of the SCS-CN method. The MoRE (mean Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, E > 0.73) performed better than the SCS-CN (mean E < 0.32) and the four improved models (mean E < 0.56) in reproducing the runoff of the study watersheds. Performance of all six models varied greatly between watersheds, as well as between events, but was independent of watershed drainage area. However, the model performances tend to be better for watersheds and/or events with a runoff-to-rainfall ratio of between 0.1 and 0.3 than for those with a ratio outside this range. The MoRE has the most consistent and robust performance.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor I. Nalbantis

Citation Wang, X., Liu, T., and Yang, W., 2012. Development of a robust runoff-prediction model by fusing the rational equation and a modified SCS-CN method. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1118–1140.