We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
Paleomagnetic determinations on lithologieal profiles of two paralleled long drillin gcores covering the past 130 kyr B.P., GT40 and GT60,from the Yanchi Playa in the arid Northwestern China indicate that a series of pronounced paleomagnetic excursions have been documented. By correlating our results with published regional and worldwide reports 4 excursion events out of 10 apparent reversal signals (labeled from GT-1 to GT-10) were identified as excursion events coeval with the Mono Lake Event (28.4 kyr-25.8 kyr), Laschamp Event (43.3 kyr-40.5kyr), Gaotai Event (82.8 kyr-72.4 kyr) and the Blake Event (127.4 kyr-113.3 kyr), respectively. GT-9 correlates with the above-mentioned Gaotai Event,GT-7 and GT-6 correspond to two stages of the Laschamp Event and GT-5 to the Mono Lake Event. It is noteworthy that the so-called Gaotai Event has not been reported as a pronounced paleomagnetic excursion in the Northwestern China. Every magnetic excursion event corresponds to paleointensity minima, anteceding those established abrupt paleoclimatic change events, such as the Younger Drays and the Heinrich Events (H1-H6). Here, we tentatively propose that these geomagnetic excursions/reversals can be viewed as precursors to climate abruptness. During the transitional stages when the earth‘s magnetic field shifted between a temporal normal and a negative period, the earth‘s magnetic paleointensity fell correspondingly to a pair of minima. Although more precise chronology and more convincing rock magnetic parameter determinations are essentially required for further interpretation of their intricate coupling mechanism, these results may have revealed, to some extent, that the earth‘s incessantly changing magnetic field exerts an strong influence on the onset of saw-tooth shaped abrupt climate oscillations through certain feedback chains in arid Central Asia or even North Hemispheric high latitude regions. 相似文献
A detailed computation on the equilibrium structure of an accretion disk around Saturn from which the regular satellites presumably originated is reported. Such a disk is the predecessor of the self-dissipating disk that is formed when the mass infall stops (Cassen and Moosman, 1981, Icarus48, 353–376). When determining the disk structure local energy balance was assumed. Convention was taken into account by introducing local energy dissipation and, in an approximate manner, sonic convection. Changes in the disk structure were investigated by varying the free parameters, i.e., the external flux from both the protosun and the protoplanet, the abundance of dust and the strength of turbulence. It has been verified that the external energy flux does not play an important role in the evolution of the disk structure. Models characterized by either longer times (?3 103 year) or a noticeable depletion of condensable elements (10?2 times less than the solar value) have a total mass of the order of 0.34?0.1 times the mass of the regular satellites increased by the mass of the light elements. Low turbulence models (Reynolds critical number ) are characterized approximately by a total mass twice as large the mass of the regular satellites. All the studied models present a temperature distribution that allows the condensation of iron, silicate, and, in the outer regions, ice grains. All models but the one with 10?2 of the solar value of condensable elements are characterized by a wide convective region that contains the formation zone of the regular satellites. 相似文献
The Jurassic granitoids (200–164 Ma) are distributed in the Korean Peninsula due to the Paleo-Pacific plate subduction. Early Jurassic (200–182 Ma) granitoids are mainly distributed in the southern Korean Peninsula. By contrast, Early to Middle Jurassic (182–164 Ma) granitoids are distributed in the central Korean Peninsula. In this study, we report detailed petrology, zircon U–Pb ages, and whole-rock geochemistry from the Seoul–Uijeongbu and Pocheon–Gimhwa pluton units in the central Korean Peninsula. The Seoul–Uijeongbu unit is dominated by biotite granite, with minor porphyritic biotite and garnet-biotite granite while the Pocheon–Gimhwa unit consists of biotite granite and porphyritic biotite granite, garnet-biotite granite, and two-mica granite. Zircon U–Pb age from those granites gives 180–167 Ma. The granitoids in the Pocheon-Gimhwa unit formed through fractional crystallization from biotite granite and porphyritic biotite granite to garnet-biotite granite, and two-mica granite based on gradually decreasing their Nb/Ta, Zr/Hf, and Eu/Eu* ratios. The strongly fractionated granitoids are garnet-biotite granite and two-mica granite. The LILE enrichment, Ta–Nb, Sr–P, and Eu–Ti troughs, and Ba depletion in most granitoids are similar to those of granitoids due to the subduction in the arc environment. Thus, these Jurassic granitoids (180–167 Ma) are mainly peraluminous granites with moderate crystal fractionation corresponding to I-type granite. Alkali feldspar granite associated with ore mineralization occurs in the Gwanaksan pluton from the southwestern Seoul–Uijeongbu unit. The alkali feldspar granite displays distinct negative Eu anomaly with high contents of Rb, Hf, Cs, and Nb compared with other granites. These characteristics imply that alkali feldspar granite experienced strong hydrothermal activity leading to feldspar ore mineralization compared to the other granites. The formation of a wide range of moderately evolved peraluminous granitoids is presumed to be related to rapid flat-subduction during 182–164 Ma, and the mineralization-related alkali feldspar granite indicates the termination of Jurassic granitoid magmatism in the central Korean Peninsula. 相似文献