中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性评价

在调查和分析中国北方地区农业生产现状的基础上,选择水资源、农业经济、社会和防旱抗旱能力4个准则层共16个指标构建农业干旱脆弱性评价指标体系。运用主成分分析法对高维变量系统进行有效降维,根据方差贡献率建立中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性评价模型,获得中国北方地区水资源、农业经济、社会和防旱抗旱能力脆弱性评价结果,获得各省(自治区、直辖市)干旱脆弱性分级阈值和区划。结果表明:(1)通过主成分分析得到农业经济、水资源、防旱抗旱能力、社会等5个主成分,方差贡献率分别为41.99%、19.25%、14.06%、8.07%和5.32%。(2)中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性从小到大依次为北京、天津、山东、辽宁、吉林、山西、内蒙古、安徽、河北、河南、陕西、宁夏、青海、黑龙江、新疆和甘肃。     

1960—2017年中国北方气候干湿变化及其与ENSO的关系

基于中国北方424个气象站实测数据,应用FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算潜在蒸散（Potential evapotranspiration,ET₀）,使用降水和潜在蒸散数据计算得到标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）,以此研究了1960—2017年中国北方干湿时空变化特征,分析了ENSO对北方气候干湿变化的影响。结果表明：中国北方干湿变化的线性趋势总体不显著,四季中春季和冬季变湿趋势明显。空间上,西北西部存在明显的变湿趋势,干旱化趋势主要发生在黄土高原、内蒙古东部和东北东部地区。全区各级干旱事件呈减少趋势,各级湿润事件呈增加趋势,其中以中等干旱的减少最为显著。西北西部中等干旱和极端干旱明显减少,东北北部和新疆部分地区极端湿润明显增加。全区四季3类干旱事件均表现为减少的趋势,3类湿润事件均表现为增加的趋势,西北西部四季3类干旱事件均呈减少趋势。ENSO对北方干湿的影响存在一定程度的滞后性。El Ni?o翌年气候湿润,La Nina翌年气候干旱。在年际和春季2个尺度上,SSTA与翌年SPEI存在显著的正相关关系。     

北印度洋半日潮波的数值模拟研究

基于FVCOM(Finite Volume Coast and Ocean Model)模型,建立北印度洋海域(31^°~102^°E,16^°S~31^°N)的M₂和S₂分潮潮波数值模式,研究北印度洋半日潮潮汐、潮流分布特征。对底摩擦系数进行数值试验,利用代价函数梯度下降法,得到分潮调和常数向量均方根偏差(RMSE)的变化曲线,逼近并确定最优的底摩擦系数。将采用该系数的模拟结果与TOPEX/Poseidon卫星高度计交叉点的调和常数数据、国际海道测量组织(IHO)及部分文献中的验潮站数据进行比较与验证,一致性较好。其中对比卫星数据的振幅偏差为2~4 cm、迟角偏差为7^°~8^°,与验潮站数据的振幅偏差为3~6 cm、迟角偏差为8^°~9^°。根据模拟结果,分析了北印度洋海域M₂和S₂分潮潮波传播特征和潮流椭圆的空间分布特征等。M₂分潮潮波在阿拉伯海南部有1个无潮点,在波斯湾内有2个无潮点,最大振幅超过80 cm;潮流在西北印度洋和孟加拉湾中部大多为顺时针旋转,其余海域大多为逆时针旋转;流速在阿拉伯海东北部、安达曼海、波斯湾和孟加拉湾北部较大,最大流速为160 cm/s,其他海域较小。S₂分潮的潮波传播特征、无潮点的位置和潮流椭圆的空间分布特征等都与M₂分潮类似,但潮波振幅和潮流流速等都相对M₂分潮较小。研究完善了北印度洋海域2个主要半日分潮M₂和S₂的整体特征。     

长江口南、北港分汊口演变与治理

按输水输沙特征,中等潮汐长江口多年来保持“三级分汊,四口入海”地貌形态格局。第二级南、北港分汊口问题已成为当今发展重要障碍之一。近百年来南、北港分汊口呈周期性冲淤演变,1971年前后共约10年,中央沙头石头沙西10 km左右的分汊口位置最佳,河势归顺,河床稳定,南、北港都畅通。现今分汊口正处于剧烈变动时期,分汊口治理,南支及其下游河段的开发与工程须认真考虑其影响与对策。     

末次间冰段以来北极及北半球其他地区气候变化

Based on temperature reconstruction and proxy data from 14 sites in the Northern Hemisphere, this paper focused on comparing the cycles of temperature variations between the Arctic and other areas, including Atlantic, Europe, China, Asia, Pacific, Indian Ocean, and America during the transition from the last Interstade to the Last Glacial Maximum, from the Last Glacial Maximum to megathermal period in Holocene and the transition of the Little Ice Age （LIA） by the methods of Singular Spectrum Analysis （SSA） and Maximum Entropy Spectrum （MES）. The results showed that environmental changes in the Arctic are most similar to that in the North American and better similar to Asia, Atlantic and Pacific, the least similar to Indian Ocean and Europe. The 1500-year oscillation of temperature existed both in Arctic and Europe.     

734年天水7级地震考证与发震构造分析

根据历史地震资料的考证结果,734年天水地震的极震区位于秦州中都督府、麦积都尉一带,今天水市秦城区、北道区和麦积山一带,震中烈度达Ⅹ度,震级71/2级左右。其等震线长轴方向为NW向,大致与西秦岭北缘断裂带的甘谷-武山断裂段相吻合,极震区正好位于甘谷-武山断裂段的东端。综合分析认为,734年天水71/2级地震的发震构造为西秦岭北缘断裂带的甘谷-武山断裂段东端     

粤北凡口黄铁铅锌矿床地球化学特征

粤北凡口黄铁铅锌矿床是我国著名的以铅锌为主的超大型矿床之一。本文对该矿床岩石和矿石的元素含量,硫,铅,碳,氢,氧同位素组成,以及包裹体化学成分特征进行了分析,并采用对应分析了研究了其元素组合特征。     

哈密盆地北缘活动断裂带微地貌

哈密盆地北线活动断裂带走向北西西,断续长180km。8条剖面的GPS测量结果显示,断坎坡度为15°～18°及31°～33°．单个断崖高3～10m。由年代学资料计算出该断裂带中全新世垂直活动速率为0．65±0．08mm／a,比晚更新世晚期垂直活动速率有所增大。     

Studies on the Blueschist Belt in the Shuanghu Region, Central Northern Tibet and Its Tectonic Implications

l.IntroductionThebIueschistblocksextenddiscontinuouslyover3oOkintrendinginE-WinthecentTalnorthernTibetfromtheeastemQageIelatown,l3kmwestofShuanghu,XiyaergangineasternTibet,throughNaro,Jiaomuri,GuoganjianianShan(GuoganjianianMt.)towesternGangmarCo-LungmuCo.Theblueschistblocksoccurinasuiteofassemblageofclasticrock,basalticrock,diamictiteandpebblysandyslate(namedBulannisedimentsbefore).TheageisprobablytheMiddle-LateCarboniferous-LatePermianepochinthelightofthecoldwaterfauna-Eurydesmaan…     

Sangay volcano, Ecuador: structural development, present activity and petrology

Sangay (5230 m), the southernmost active volcano of the Andean Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ), sits 130 km above a >32-Ma-old slab, close to a major tear that separates two distinct subducting oceanic crusts. Southwards, Quaternary volcanism is absent along a 1600-km-long segment of the Andes. Three successive edifices of decreasing volume have formed the Sangay volcanic complex during the last 500 ka. Two former cones (Sangay I and II) have been largely destroyed by sector collapses that resulted in large debris avalanches that flowed out upon the Amazon plain. Sangay III, being constructed within the last avalanche amphitheater, has been active at least since 14 ka BP. Only the largest eruptions with unusually high Plinian columns are likely to represent a major hazard for the inhabited areas located 30 to 100 km west of the volcano. However, given the volcano's relief and unbuttressed eastern side, a future collapse must be considered, that would seriously affect an area of present-day colonization in the Amazon plain, 30 km east of the summit. Andesites greatly predominate at Sangay, there being few dacites and basalts. In order to explain the unusual characteristics of the Sangay suite—highest content of incompatible elements (except Y and HREE) of any NVZ suite, low Y and HREE values in the andesites and dacites, and high Nb/La of the only basalt found—a preliminary five-step model is proposed: (1) an enriched mantle (in comparison with an MORB source), or maybe a variably enriched mantle, at the site of the Sangay, prior to Quaternary volcanism; (2) metasomatism of this mantle by important volumes of slab-derived fluids enriched in soluble incompatible elements, due to the subduction of major oceanic fracture zones; (3) partial melting of this metasomatized mantle and generation of primitive basaltic melts with Nb/La values typical of the NVZ, which are parental to the entire Sangay suite but apparently never reach the surface and subordinate production of high Nb/La basaltic melts, maybe by lower degrees of melting at the periphery of the main site of magma formation, that only infrequently reach the surface; (4) AFC processes at the base of a 50-km-thick crust, where parental melts pond and fractionate while assimilating remelts of similar basaltic material previously underplated, producing andesites with low Y and HREE contents, due to garnet stability at this depth; (5) low-pressure fractionation and mixing processes higher in the crust. Both an enriched mantle under Sangay prior to volcanism and an important slab-derived input of fluids enriched in soluble incompatible elements, two parameters certainly related to the unique setting of the volcano at the southern termination of the NVZ, apparently account for the exceptionally high contents of incompatible elements of the Sangay suite. In addition, the low Cr/Ni values of the entire suite—another unique characteristic of the NVZ—also requires unusual fractionation processes involving Cr-spinel and/or clinopyroxene, either in the upper mantle or at the base of the crust.