Synthetic Model for Prediction Seismic Risk in About 10 Years

In this paper, the relation that strong earthquakes and seismo-geological conditions bear with precursory phenomena has been analyzed. The information content concerning the long-term (i.e., a decade) seismic risk that various precursors can provide has been estimated by using the quantitative judgment method. On such a basis, a synthetic probability model for predicting the strong earthquake risk in about 10 years has been suggested. With the northern part of North China used as the test region, the feasibility of the model which is used for medium-term to long-term prediction has been proved.     

赣北晚二叠世的层序地层及高频沉积旋回研究

本文依据露头剖面及钻孔资料，在对其沉积物进行详细的微相及沉积环境研究的基础上，将赣北上二叠统划分为４个三级层序，并详细地论述了各三级层序的特征，丰城长兴组的呈家坪初期近源缓坡，早期具深切谷的近源缓坡边缘，中期台盆相间的断裂边缘，长兴期具滩礁内陆地镶边陆架等４个发展阶段，表明这种复杂多变的五级高频沉积旋回形成的根源是地壳运动地地壳运行造成沉积背景的不同，与秦岭一别洋向北储冲消减的慢悉悉相关，根据更小级别的时断加积沉积旋回的研究，它们的时限与地球运行轨道的岁差和短偏心率旋回大体吻合，从而，认为控制间断加积沉积旋回的主导机制是地球轨道周期性变化导致的气候周期性变化。     

冀北地区中生代岩浆岩密度分布特征及其幔枝构造的研究

通过对河北省北部中生代岩浆岩岩石密度及空间分布的统计分析,发现偏酸性岩浆岩具有较低的密度,而偏基性岩浆岩具有较高的密度,喷出火山岩与侵入岩体的密度分布均具规律性。由此推断,河北省北部中生代岩浆活动可能是一个地幔热柱的幔枝,中心以偏基性岩浆活动为主,周围则以偏酸性岩浆活动为主,幔枝的结构控制了本区的成矿作用。     

冀北变质岩磁化率特征与变质原岩的初探

通过对冀北地区变质岩系中角闪岩、片麻岩以及遵化群、整个变质岩系磁化率的统计分析与空间分析,提出低磁化率可能是副变质岩、高磁化率是正变质岩的反映,并由此探讨利用岩石磁学指标恢复变质原岩的可能性。     

Crustal Movement in the Northern Part of North China Associated with Zhangbei Earthquake

Crustal Deformation Monitoring Center, China Seismological Bureau, Tianjin 300180, China Crustal deformation in the northern part of North China associated with Zhangbei earthquake is analyzed using GPS data collected during 1992, 1996 and 1999, precise re-leveling data collected during 1992, 1998 and 2000, and INSAR result (September 22, 1997～May 6, 1998). The results indicate: ① The vertical deformation is not remarkable since 1992. The vertical crustal deformation in the central and northern part of North China in recent 10 years is of inheritance. The scope of the significant deformation is 15km×15km with a magnitude of 250mm when the event occurred. ② The horizontal deformation is not remarkable in any unit of North China. ③ Before and after the event (1992～1996 and 1996～1999), there is kinematic change of horizontal motion between different units. The activity mode along Yinshan tectonic zone changed from relative static state to left-lateral strike slip; The dominant extensional movement along Shanxi rift zone changed to right-lateral strike slip; Yanshan tectonic zone changed from left-lateral strike-slip with extension to left-lateral strike slip; Yanshan-Hebei transitional zone formed before the event disappeared after the event. ④ The scale of the deformation is closely related to the physical property of media and geological structure environment. Further analysis indicates that ① Zhangbei earthquake does not mean that the earthquake activity begins to be strengthened in North China; ② The crustal movement is normal at present; ③ Next stronger earthquake in North China might be located in Yanshan tectonic zone, especially at its both ends, and Shanxi tectonic zone.     

Limnological conditions in a subarctic lake (northern Québec, Canada) during the late Holocene: analyses based on fossil diatoms

A fossil diatom record covering the past 3000 cal. years BP wasanalyzed from a small lake in northwestern Québec near the northernlimit of present-day tree-line. Fragilaria virescens var.exigua Grunow in Van Heurck was the dominant speciesthroughout the core with abundances ranging between 13–35% of thetotal valve count. There was a replacement of alkaliphilous taxa byacidophilous taxa beginning ca. 1300 cal. yr ago, probably reflectinglong-term, natural acidification processes. A diatom-based transfer functionwas used to provide quantitative estimates of variations in lakewater dissolvedorganic carbon (DOC). These inferred values showed that DOC concentrations haveremained stable over the past 3000 years (mean ± S.D. = 5 ± 0.43 mg C l^–1), suggesting relatively constant allochthonouscarbon inputs and underwater light conditions during the late Holocene. Thereconstructed DOC data were compared to the palynological record from the samelake. Our study indicates that, in contrast to paleolimnological records fromlakes in central and western Canada, climatic variations and associatedvegetational shifts have been too subtle to cause pronounced variations in DOCin this northern Québec site.     

Environmental changes in the central Po Plain (northern Italy) due to fluvial modifications and anthropogenic activities

The fluvial environment of the central Po Plain, the largest plain in Italy, is discussed in this paper. Bounded by the mountain chains of the Alps and the Apennines, this plain is a link between the Mediterranean environment and the cultural and continental influences of both western and eastern Europe. In the past decades, economic development has been responsible for many changes in the fluvial environment of the area.This paper discusses the changes in fluvial dynamics that started from Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene due to distinct climatic changes. The discussion is based on geomorphological, pedological, and archaeological evidences and radiocarbon dating.In the northern foothills, Late Pleistocene palaeochannels indicate several cases of underfit streams among the northern tributaries of the River Po. On the other hand, on the southern side of the Po Plain, no geomorphological evidence of similar discharge reduction has been found. Here, stratigraphic sections, together with archaeological remains buried under the fluvial deposits, show a reduction in the size of fluvial sediments after the 10th millennium BC. During the Holocene, fluvial sedimentation became finer, and was characterised by minor fluctuations in the rate of deposition, probably related to short and less intense climatic fluctuations.Given the high rate of population growth and the development of human activities since the Neolithic Age, human influence on fluvial dynamics, especially since the Roman Age, prevailed over other factors (i.e., climate, tectonics, vegetation, etc.). During the Holocene, the most important changes in the Po Plain were not modifications in water discharge but in sediment. From the 1st to 3rd Century AD, land grants to war veterans caused almost complete deforestation, generalised soil erosion, and maximum progradation of the River Po delta. At present, land abandonment in the mountainous region has led to reafforestation. Artificial channel control in the mountain sector of the basins and in-channel gravel extraction (now illegal but very intense in the 1960s and 1970s) are causing erosion along the rivers and along large sectors of the Adriatic coast. These changes are comparable with those occurring in basins of other Mediterranean rivers.     

胶东—苏北石榴石二辉橄榄岩形成条件及年代

在胶东—苏北地区,由石榴石二辉橄榄岩、尖晶石二辉橄榄岩、石榴石辉石岩、榴辉岩、斜辉辉橄岩和纯橄岩组成的杂岩成群和成带分布,延长590km。该岩带越过郯庐断裂带延伸至大别山,全长约1200km。岩带内石榴石二辉橄榄岩与尖晶石橄榄岩伴生,组成较大的岩块,并且与榴辉岩伴生,曾被作者确定为一种有层序的岩套。石榴石二辉橄榄岩的Sm-Nd同位素年龄为925±53Ma,矿物地质温度计和压力计表明其形成于115—160km深部,温度为800—1371℃。该石榴石二辉橄榄岩平衡温度和压力符合大陆地温线,而不同于中国东部沿海地区玄武岩中包体石榴石二辉橄榄岩,后者的平衡温度压力符合于大洋地温线。     

浅谈华北地台北界中段划分问题

作者在研究华北地台航磁资料推断解释的过程中,综合对比各种资料,发现该地台北界中段(即东经112°—117°之间)应沿北纬42°35′—40′通过。这就扩大了该地台北缘范围,也对扩大地台北缘找矿远景有重要意义。     

Reappraisal of great historical earthquakes in the northern Chile and southern Peru seismic gaps

A critical reappraisal of great historical interplate earthquakes in the occidental margin of South America, including southern Peru and northern Chile, is carried out.A spacetime distribution of the earthquakes associated to the seismotectonics regions defined by the rupture zones of the greatest events (1868, Mw = 8.8 and 1877, Mw = 8.8) is obtained. Both regions are seismic gaps that are in the maturity state of their respective earthquake cycles. The region associated to the 1868 earthquake presents a notable seismic quiescence in the present century.