查表法设计华北地区最大震级时间序列模糊预测系统

本文介绍了查表法设计模糊系统(FSLE)的方法与原理,然后基于该方法建立了华北地区及主要地震带最大震级时间序列的预测模型,并进行了预测内符检验。分析认为,该方法的建模与预测精度较高,模型外推泛化能力较强,原理简单直观,计算结果稳健。因此,FSLE方法可作为地震趋势建模与预测分析工作中的一种有效工具。     

A high-resolution reconstruction of Storglaciären mass balance back to 1780/81 using tree-ring data and circulation indices

Storglaciären in northernmost Sweden has the world's longest ongoing continuous mass-balance record, starting in 1946. To extend this mass-balance record, we have reconstructed summer (b_S) and winter (b_W) mass balances separately back to the mass balance year 1780/81 with annual resolution. We used tree-ring data for b_S and a set of circulation indices, based on the sea-level pressure, for b_W. Both proxies have correlation coefficients with respective mass balance components of ca. 0.7. The reconstructed net balance (b_N) of Storglaciären was well correlated to the observations during 1946-1980 (r = 0.8, p < 0.05). Our reconstruction agrees well with previously obtained results of northern Sweden glacier variability, where the predominantly positive b_N years between 1890 and 1910 correspond to the well documented post-Little Ice Age advance of Storglaciären. Furthermore, the results suggest that b_S, as a function of summer temperatures, is more important than b_W in determining the b_N, which is contrary to glaciers in the maritime parts of western Scandinavia. In general, b_N has been negative over the last 220 yr, suggesting a predomination of continental conditions over northern Sweden. However, the influence of b_W increased in the late twentieth century, indicating a shift to a more oceanic climate regime.     

Excess in precipitation as a cause for settlement decline along the Israeli coastal plain during the third millennium BC

Although the relations between climate and settlement are not straightforward, there is a general agreement that arid conditions are less favorable for human settlement in the semiarid Near East than humid conditions. Here we show that humid conditions resulted in the abandonment of settlements along the Israeli coastal plain. We first present archaeological evidence for a drastic decline in settlement along the Israeli coast during most of the third millennium BC (Early Bronze Age II-III). Then, based on archaeological and climatic evidence, we link this decline to an environmental change occurring at that time. We propose that increased precipitation intensified the already existing drainage problems and resulted in flooding, which led to the transformation of arable land into marshes and to the spread of diseases, gradually causing settlement decline and abandonment.     

Enter the working forest: Discourse analysis in the Northern Forest

In 1988, four states in the northeastern USA commissioned a study to address land use changes in the Northern Forest, 26 million acres of temperate and boreal forest extending from Maine to eastern New York State. Against a backdrop of economic destabilization and concerns regarding social and ecological implications of a real estate boom, the sustained deliberative dialogue catalyzed by this study has come to rely heavily on the ambiguous concept of “working forest.” To clarify political and environmental dynamics in the region, we analyzed how people respond to and seek to capitalize on the interpretive flexibility of the term working forest. We combine an analysis of socio-political discourses of working forest based on a structured literature review with an assessment of local peoples’ definitions of working forest based on a survey conducted in a pair of contrasting New York State communities. The first study site represents an amenity-oriented community (i.e. a place where the forest supports a service economy including recreation and tourism) and the other study site represents a timber-dependent community. By linking data from community-level analysis to data derived from a general analysis of forest politics, we seek to develop a more robust perspective. By comparing discourses across differently structured communities, we investigate how local forest politics are mediated by local economic development processes. Our study empirically illustrates contested and geographically uneven processes of social construction of environment and rural development in a region confronting pressures of globalization. Results indicate that timber harvesting is a heavily privileged management objective, as a logic of ‘the forest that pays is the forest that stays’ dominates. Environmental politics in the region, and perhaps more generally, increasingly conforms to a form of pragmatism in which economic opportunities structure conservation planning and investment.     

Quantitative relationship between pollen and vegetation in northern China

205 surface pollen samples from different communities in Northern China were analyzed to understand the quantitative relationship between pollen and its original vegetation. Pollen analysis and vegetation investigation show that the pollen assemblages differ a lot in different vegetation regions. Arboreal pollen account for more than 30% in temperate broad-deciduous forests region. In temperate steppe regions, herb pollen percentages are more than 90%, where Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae are domi- nant pollen types with Artemisia percentages more than 30%. In temperate desert, Chenopodiaceae pollen percentages are more than Artemisia, where ferns are rare. Cyperaceae pollen percentages are more than 20% in sub-alpine or cold meadows. The relations between pollen percentages and vegeta- tion cover indicate that most arboreal pollen shows a close relationship with parent plant covers, most shrubby pollen types have more or less correlations, but most herbs do not show clear correlations. For arboreal pollen types, Picea pollen shows the closest correlation with spruce trees coverage, then is Quercus and Carpinus. Betula, Larix and Juglans have also high correlation coefficients with their plants coverage, but Betula pollen is of overrepresented pollen type and more than 40% in birch forest, while Larix and Juglans pollen is underrepresented and pollen percentages are more than 10% in Larix or Juglans pure forests. Pinus is of overrepresented pollen type, and pollen percentages have some relations with plants cover. Pine forest might present when Pinus pollen percentages are more than 30%. The relations between Ulmus and Populus pollen percentages and vegetation cover are not close, where they are mixed with other arbors, they cannot be recorded easily, but if their pollen percentages are more than 1%, Ulmus or Populus trees should exist. For shrubby pollen types, the correlation be- tween Vitex pollen percentages and vegetation cover is the highest, then is Corylus, Tamariaceae and Nitraria, and their pollen percentages are less than 1% where original plant are absent. Caragana and Spiraea pollen percentages have some relations with vegetation cover. The relations between pollen percentages and vegetation cover are not clear for Rosaceae and Saxifragaceae. For herb pollen types, Cyperaceae pollen has the closest correlation with vegetation cover, where pollen percentages are more than 20% when Cyperaceae are constructive or dominant species in vegetation, and pollen per- centages are less than 5% where Cyperaceae are not constructive or dominant species (cover less than 30%). Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen percentages mainly have close relations with ecological regions. The relations between pollen percentages and cover are not clear for Gramineae, Legumi- nosae and Compositae.     

Rock-magnetic properties of Neogene sediments, northern flank of Tianshan Mountains

Analyses of rock-magnetic properties of Neogene sediments of the Taxihe section, northern Tianshan Mountains, show that the section can be classified into three categories including lacustrine facies, fluvial facies and alluvial facies, which correspond to the lower, middle and upper of the Taxihe section respectively. The magnetic minerals of the lacustrine facies may be affected by the process of weath- ering, lithogenesis and biolithogenesis besides the source of the sediments. The natural remanence intensities are between 10-3 A/m and 10-2 A/m. The minerals are dominated by magnetite and the high coercive magnetic mineral may be goethite. The magnetic grains are the mixture of PSD SD or SD SP. The natural remanence intensities of the strata of fluvial facies are between 10-2 A/m and 10-1 A/m, about ten times that of the lacustrine facies. The magnetic minerals are mainly magnetite and hematite, and the magnetic grains are mainly PSD. The characteristic remanence (ChRM) carriers are magnetites. In the alluvial facies, the natural remanence intensities are mostly less than 1×10-2 A/m. The magnetic minerals of the series are dominated by magnetite and hematite, almost the same as the fluvial facies. But the difference is that most of the stepwise demagnetization can reveal two components and the ChRM carriers are hematites. The magnetic grains are PSD in terms of the hysteresis parameters.     

冀北小张家口超基性岩体的锆石U-Pb年龄和Hf同位素组成

采用离子探针(SHRIMPⅡ)测得小张家口基性-超基性岩体中的锆石主要有220±5Ma和491±7Ma两组年龄,以及一个很老的继承锆石年龄2453Ma。年龄为220±5Ma的一组锆石(A组)具有典型的岩浆型振荡环带,这组年龄应代表该岩体的侵位年龄。A组锆石的~(176)H/~(177)Hf比值从0.282557到0.282690,ε_(Hf)(220Ma)=-2.9～ 1.66。年龄为491±7Ma的一组锆石(B组)具有变质成因的蝴蝶结构(Butterfly structure)和熔蚀边,属于继承锆石。B组锆石的~(176)Hf/~(177)Hf比值从0.282239到0.282483,ε_(Hf)(491Ma)=-8.6～0.06。~(207)Pb/~(206)Pb年龄为2453Ma的锆石应该是岩浆侵位时从华北克拉通古元古代基底中捕获的锆石。A组锆石的Hf同位素数据表明,220Ma左右由于华北北缘岩石圈伸展,导致软流圈地幔上涌,亏损的软流圈地幔流/熔体与富集的岩石圈地幔相互作用并混合,这种混合地幔源区发生部分熔融而形成小张家口基性-超基性岩体。B组锆石可能是小张家口岩体在岩浆侵位过程中捕获的来源于富集地幔或大陆下地壳的锆石。     

Metals content in sediments of ephemeral streams with small reservoirs(the Negev Desert)

The content of 19 metals(chromium,cobalt,nickel,strontium,arsenic,magnesium,barium,cesium,gallium,rubidium,uranium,vanadium,zinc,lead,copper,cadmium,iron,manganese,and aluminum) in sediment in three ephemeral streams(Nahal Sansana,Nahal Revivim and Nahal Pura) with reservoirs in the Negev Desert is studied herein.The study was done in September 2016.The samples were collected from the surface layer of sediment(up to 10 cm) in the reservoirs and in the channels upstream and downstream of the reservoirs.Silt,which on average,accounted for 72% dominated in the sediment.In the spatial distribution of the particle size,sand and gravel fractions were deposited in the reservoirs.Aluminum,iron,and magnesium accounted for 99% of all analyzed metals.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA) and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis(HCA) showed that sediment in the Negev Desert channel upstream of the reservoirs had similar concentrations of metals.Similarities were also found between the analyzed reservoirs.The bottom sediment in reservoirs had higher concentrations of metals than sediment upstream and downstream of the reservoirs.The comparison of concentrations in upstream and downstream locations did not show any unambiguous trends because metal concentrations downstream from the reservoirs were not always lower than upstream of the reservoirs.The analysis of the sediment enrichment factor(EF) showed the highest value in the reservoirs and the lowest downstream of the reservoirs.The concentrations of most analyzed metals did not indicate the possibility of potential ecological risk(SQG).     

辽北地区早石炭世变质火山岩年代学和地球化学特征:对华北板块北缘东段构造演化的启示

华北板块北缘东段分布的构造混杂岩带为研究古亚洲洋的演化提供了重要的依据,"下二台岩群"作为该构造混杂岩带的重要组成部分,其形成时代和构造属性仍存在争议。详细的研究表明下二台地区变质火山岩原岩包括流纹岩、英安岩、安山岩,为一套钙碱性火山岩,属于准铝质-弱过铝质岩石,根据岩相学和地球化学特征将其分为变质酸性火山岩和变质中性火山岩;二者均相对富集轻稀土元素,亏损重稀土元素,轻重稀土元素分馏明显,Eu负异常不明显,但变质中性火山岩稀土总量低于变质酸性火山岩,变质酸性火山岩明显亏损Sr、P元素,结合野外产出面积和高场强元素相关性特征,认为二者不是同一基性岩浆分异的产物。变质火山岩锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年龄为341～348Ma,代表其原岩结晶年龄。变质酸性火山岩原始岩浆来自于地壳物质的部分熔融,变质中性火山岩原始岩浆来自于俯冲带附近岩石圈地幔,并遭受了地壳物质的混染,二者均形成于活动大陆边缘火山弧环境。最新研究成果表明"下二台岩群"由不同时代、不同构造环境下形成的地质单元叠置混杂而成,称其为"下二台"构造杂岩更为准确。下二台地区变质火山岩表明在早石炭世初,古亚洲洋板块已经南向俯冲,在华北板块北缘形成活动大陆边缘弧环境,早石炭世变质火山岩原岩为这一俯冲阶段的产物。     

简论90年代以色列的经济政策

现代以色列经济是外向型经济。90年代以来,中东和平进程在前进,以色列经济在发展,工党政府和利库德集团政府都把进一步改革开放、奠定以色列的中东经济强国地位作为主要目标,为此,制定了推进私有化、吸引外资、扩大对外贸易的政策以及一系列相关政策,对以色列经济的现状和将来有着重大影响,也对中东区域经济的发展有着促进作用,同时也存在着某些问题。