Environmental controls on phytoplankton community composition in the Thames plume, U.K.

The aim of this study was to investigate controls on the phytoplankton community composition and biogeochemistry of the estuarine plume zone of the River Thames, U.K. using an instrumented moored buoy for in situ measurements and preserved sample collection, and laboratory-based measurements from samples collected at the same site. Instrumentation on the moored buoy enabled high frequency measurements of a suite of environmental variables including in situ chlorophyll, water-column integrated irradiance, macronutrients throughout an annual cycle for 2001 e.g. nitrate and silicate, and phytoplankton biomass and species composition. The Thames plume region acts as a conduit for fluvial nutrients into the wider southern North Sea with typical winter concentrations of 45 μM nitrate, 17 μM silicate and 2 μM phosphate measured. The spring bloom resulted from water-column integrated irradiance increasing above 60 W h m^− 2 d^− 1 and was initially dominated by a diatom bloom mainly composed of Nitzschia sp. and Odontella sinesis. The spring bloom then switched after  30 days to become dominated by the flagellate Phaeocystis reaching a maximum chlorophyll concentration of 37.8 μg L^− 1. During the spring bloom there were high numbers of the heterotrophic dinoflagellates Gyrodinium spirale and Katodinium glaucum that potentially grazed the phytoplankton bloom. This diatom–flagellate switch was predicted to be due to a combination of further increasing water-column integrated irradiance > 100 W h m^− 2 d^− 1 and/or silicate reaching potentially limiting concentrations (< 1 μM). Post spring bloom, diatom dominance of the lower continuous summer phytoplankton biomass occurred despite the low silicate concentrations (Av. 0.7 μM from June–August). Summer diatom dominance, generally due to Guinardia delicatula, was expected to be as a result of microzooplankton grazing, dominated by the heterotrophic dinoflagellate Noctiluca scintillans, controlling 0.7–5.0 μm ‘flagellate’ fraction of the phytoplankton community with grazing rates up to 178% of ‘flagellate’ growth rate. The Thames plume region was therefore shown to be an active region of nutrient and phytoplankton processing and transport to the southern North Sea. The use of a combination of moorings and ship-based sampling was essential in understanding the factors influencing nutrient transport, phytoplankton biomass and species composition in this shelf sea plume region.     

Rapid invasion of Crassostrea gigas into the German Wadden Sea dominated by larval supply

Invasions of non-indigenous species into coastal habitats have been a frequent phenomenon in the last decades, sometimes with significant impact on the receiving ecosystem. However, the understanding of the entire process and especially the relative importance of larval supply and local recruitment remains unclear. In this study, we simulate the invasion of a benthic invertebrate into a previously uncolonised habitat over several years and validate the results with field data. Therefore, we present field data from a monitoring programme revealing the rapid invasion of the oyster Crassostrea gigas into the East Frisian Wadden Sea, North Sea, between 2003 and 2005. The applied model combines a simple, spatially-explicit population dynamics model for the adult stage with a particle tracking model for the larval stage of the life cycle. Simulation results are able to reproduce the large-scale pattern of the field data and indicate a domination of larval supply on the population dynamics in the early stage of the invasion. Though monitoring and simulations suggest a single larval source outside the study area in the west, the population dynamics in the eastern part is only explainable with an additional source within the study area attributed to an unintentional input of juveniles by mussel fishery. High sensitivities to uncertain parameters result in distinct deviations between monitoring and simulations at particular sites. Especially the impact of site-specific variations of the post-settlement mortality underlines the variability of local recruitment conditions and indicates the need for spatially resolved information for exact predictions.     

A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.     

Results of recent Pacific-Arctic ice-ocean modeling studies at the Naval Postgraduate School

Summary of results from a high - resolution pan - Arctic ice - ocean model are presented for the northern North Pacific, Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. The main focus is on the mean circulation, communication from the Gulf of Alaska across the Bering Sea into the western Arctic Ocean and on mesoscale eddy activity within several important ecosystems. Model results from 1979 -2004 are compared to observations whenever possible. The high spatial model resolution at 1/12o （or -9 - km） in the horizontal and 45 levels in the vertical direction allows for representation of eddies with diameters as small as 36 km. However, we believe that upcoming new model integrations at even higher resolution will allow us to resolve even smaller eddies. This is especially important at the highest latitudes where the Rossby radius of deformation is as small as 10 km or less.     

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