随机地震荷载作用下饱和粉土的液化特性

为了考虑随机地震荷载作用下饱和粉土的液化特性，研究了如何通过合理的地震响应分析确定饱和粉土层受到的随机地震荷载，进一步探讨了随机地震荷载作用下的动三轴试验技术，以及利用此种试验分析饱和粉土液化特性的方法。研究结果为形成判别饱和粉土层地震液化可能性的新方法提供了依据。     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Numerical modeling of 3-D terrain effect on MT field

Using the boundary element method, the numerical modeling problem of three-dimensional terrain effect on magnetotelluric (MT) field is solved. This modeling technique can be run on PC in the case of adopting special net division. The result of modeling test for 2-D terrain by this modeling technique is basically coincident with that by 2-D modeling technique, but there is a great difference between the results of 3-D and 2-D modeling for 3-D terrain. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.     

SH Wave Propagation in Viscoelastic Media

When comparing solutions for the propagation of SH waves in plane parallel layered elastic and viscoelastic (anelastic) media, one of the first things that becomes apparent is that in the elastic case the location of the saddle points required to obtain a high frequency approximation are located on the real p axis. This is true of the branch points also. In a viscoelastic medium this is not typical. The saddle point corresponding to an arrival lies in the first quadrant of the complex p-plane as do the branch points. Additionally, in the elastic case the saddle point and branch points lie on a straight line drawn through the origin (the positive real axis in the complex p-plane), while in the viscoelastic case this is generally not the case and the saddle point and branch points lie in such a manner as to indicate the degree of their complex values.In this paper simple SH reflected and transmitted particle displacement arrivals due to a point torque source at the surface in a viscoelastic medium composed of a layer over a half space will be considered. The path of steepest descent defining the saddle point in the first quadrant will be parameterized in terms of a real variable and the high frequency solutions and intermediate analytic results obtained will be used to formulate more specific constraints and observations regarding saddle point location relative to branch point locations in the complex p-plane.As saddle point determination for an arrival is, in general, the solution of a non-linear equation in two unknowns (the real and imaginary parts of the complex saddle point p ₀), which must be solved numerically, the use of analytical methods for investigating this problem type is somewhat limited.Numerical experimentation using well documented solution methods, such as Newton's method, was undertaken and some observations were made. Although fairly basic, they did provide for the design of algorithms for the computation of synthetic traces that displayed more efficient convergence and accuracy than those previously employed. This was the primary motivation for this work and the results from the SH problem may be used with minimal modifications to address the more complicated subject of coupled P-SV wave propagation in viscoelastic media.Another reason for revisiting a problem that has received some attention in the literature was to approach it in a fairly comprehensive manner so that a number of specific observations may be made regarding the location of the saddle point in the complex p-plane and to incorporate these into computer software. These have been found to result in more efficient algorithms for the SH wave propagation and a significant enhancement of the comparable software in the P-SV problem.     

几种空气质量预报方法的预报效果对比分析

目前应用于我国各个城市空气质量预报业务的预报方法主要有三种 :数值模式预报、统计预报和综合经验预报。这几种预报方法都有其各自的优势 ,同时也存在一些不足。应用以上方法对天津市市区进行空气质量业务预报 ,通过实测资料与预报结果进行对比分析 ,给出这几种方法在天津市区空气质量预报中的预报效果客观评价。     

2003年淮河流域大水期间体积降水量的研究

针对 2 0 0 3年梅雨期淮河流域大水提出了体积降水量的概念及其计算方法 ,在计算出淮河流域和其各子流域逐日和总体积降水量的基础上 ,将体积降水量与水文站的水位和流量进行了对比分析。结果表明 :水位对累计体积降水量有较好的即时响应 ,流量对体积降水量有较好的延迟响应。另外 ,讨论了流域体积降水量的预报问题 ,用国内外数值天气预报产品和中央气象台指导预报产品 ,进行了流域体积降水量预报试验 ,并对预报结果进行了检验分析。结果表明 :在目前天气预报水平条件下 ,利用数值天气预报和中央气象台业务预报产品制作体积降水量是可行的 ,能够延长洪水预报的预见期 ;而且 ,数值天气预报产品在预报体积降水量方面有明显的优势 ,因此可以直接利用数值天气预报产品进行体积降水量的客观预报 ,为防汛工作提供重要的依据。     

电法在探测岩溶上的应用

通过对电法中几种常用方法的分析，说明其在岩溶探测中有效，并提出了七种确定岩溶的方法。     

变形监测基准点的稳定性检验

基准点的稳定性评价，是变形观测数据处理时不可忽视的重要内容。该文对基准点构网和不构网2种情况时的数据处理方法进行了探讨。     

昌马水库右岸山体稳定性研究

昌马水库导流排砂洞塌方导致右岸山体发生松动 ,本文在大量地质资料的基础上 ,对右岸岩体裂隙网络进行模拟 ,同时 ,采用极限分析能量法和有限元数值模拟方法等对右岸山体的稳定性进行分析研究 ,并提出相应的加固方案。     

用于新生代定年的Ar-Ar法标准样品候选样品初测结果

Ar Ar法定年的特点是必须要有一套年龄从小到大的标准样。迄今用于新生代定年的国内标准样极少。为满足新生代矿物Ar Ar法定年的需要,初选了一个标准样候选者BT 1透长石。样品总重366g,粒级6080目,纯度100%,缩分为100瓶,每瓶3 66g。Ar Ar阶段加热法初测结果为:全部12个阶段给出的总气体年龄为30 8±0 9Ma,412阶段视年龄十分接近,年龄谱平坦,对应的39Ar析出量达96%,坪年龄为29 6±0 4Ma,等时年龄为29 6±0 6Ma,MSWD=1 01。40Ar/36Ar初始值为293 6±3 9,与尼尔值295 5相当。重复测定结果为:全部气体年龄为31 0±0 9Ma(全部9个阶段),坪年龄为29 5±0 4Ma,等时年龄为29 4±0 6Ma,MSWD=1 94,40Ar/36Ar初始值为282 2±6 3。这些结果表明,BT 1透长石不含过剩氩,作为新生代定年的Ar Ar法标准样品候选者是较为理想的。