Younger Dryas气候突变事件及可能机理

国际地圈─生物圈计划（ＩＧＢＰ）的中心议题之一就是研究过去的全球变化（ＰＡＧＥＳ），而对过去短期气候突变事件特别是对末次冰期─间冰期过渡时期的ＹｏｕｎｇｅｒＤｒｙａｓ事件的研究更受全球变化研究者的关注．然而，到目前为止，对ＹｏｕｎｇｅｒＤｒｙａｓ的成因及是否为全球性事件等问题，依然争论不休。本文即是对近年来国际上对此事件研究的综述。     

Analysis of biodegradation in a 3-D heterogeneous porous medium using nonlinear stochastic finite element method

Probabilistic analysis by Monte Carlo Simulation method (MCSM) is a computationally prohibitive task for a reactive solute transport involving coupled PDEs with nonlinear source/sink terms in 3-D heterogeneous porous media. The perturbation based stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is an attractive alternative method to MCSM as it is computationally efficient and accurate. In the present study SFEM is developed for solving nonlinear reactive solute transport problem in a 3-D heterogeneous medium. Here the solution of the biodegradation problem involving a single solute by a single class of microorganisms coupled with dynamic microbial growth is attempted using this method. The SFEM here produces a second-order accurate solution for the mean and a first-order accurate solution for the standard deviation of concentrations. In this study both the physical parameters (hydraulic conductivity, porosity, dispersivity and diffusion coefficient) and the biological parameters (maximum substrate utilization rate and the coefficient of cell decay) are considered as spatially varying random fields. A comparison between the MCSM and SFEM for the mean and standard deviation of concentration is made for 1-D and 3-D problem. The effects of heterogeneity on the degradation of substrate and growth of biomass concentrations for a range of variances of input parameters are discussed for both 1-D and 3-D problems.     

Transmission of obliquely incident waves at low-crested breakwaters: Theoretical interpretations of experimental observations

The paper presents a series of analytical and numerical investigations of oblique wave transmission at low-crested breakwaters. For a smooth breakwater, two important features of wave height and direction are analyzed to establish the generic nature of the wave transmission process at oblique incidence. The proposed framework of research is validated against laboratory data from the EU-sponsored project, DELOS. The numerical simulations exhibit a significant decrease of the transmission coefficient with increasingly oblique incidence at a smooth breakwater. The roles of wave-breaking, nonlinearity, wave-induced currents and set-up in determining the characteristics of oblique wave transmission are demonstrated in the paper. It is found that both the amplitude-dependent phase velocity and the decrease of mean wave period contribute to the change of mean wave direction on the transmission side. An attempt has also been made to qualitatively explain the different behaviour of oblique wave transmission at a rubble-mound breakwater.     

Occurrence probability of a freak wave in a nonlinear wave field

The Edgeworth’s form of a cumulative expansion of the probability density function (PDF) of surface elevation expands the maximum wave height distribution to predict the occurrence probability of freak waves. This study investigated the enhancement of the occurrence probability of freak waves due to the fourth order moment of surface elevation, kurtosis, change and found that the nonlinear effects on the occurrence probability of a freak wave linearly depends on kurtosis for a small number of waves N=250. The statistical theory was compared with field data, and freak waves sometimes appear when not expected by the Rayleigh theory, but they were predicted by the proposed theory.     

Probability distribution of random wave forces in weakly nonlinear random waves

Based on the second-order random wave theory, the joint statistical distribution of the horizontal velocity and acceleration is derived using the characteristic function expansion method. From the joint distribution and the Morison equation, the theoretical distributions of drag forces, inertia forces and total random wave forces are determined. The distribution of inertia forces is Gaussian as that derived using the linear wave model, whereas the distributions of drag forces and total random forces deviate slightly from those derived utilizing the linear wave model. It is found that the distribution of wave forces depends solely on the frequency spectrum of sea waves associated with the first order approximation and the second order wave–wave interaction.     

偶极子型热源和地形共同强迫下局域流型的演变特征

用带有热源强迫和地形强迫的准地转正压模式,实施了6组时间积分为72个模式日的数值积分。结果指出：不同的初始状态,会产生不同的渐近行为,包括准平衡态、阻尼振荡和非阻尼振荡,显示出明显的非线性特征。热源强迫场空间结构的复杂程度,对系统时间演变特征也有重要影响。     

线性化与形式分析丢失的世界

本文以罗斯贝方程和爱因斯坦的引力波方程为例,讨论线性化和形式分析构成的物理实在性的失落,及相应“长波”和“引力波”理论存在的问题。     

长江下游旱涝与夏半年欧亚环流30～60天振荡的年际变化

对 2 5a(1 971～ 1 995年 )逐候东半球热带外 50 0 h Pa高度距平场进行小波分析和旋转主成分分析 ,研究了 30～ 60 d低频振荡的时空变化及其与长江下游夏季旱涝和暴雨频数年际变化的关系。结果表明 :6～ 1 0月欧亚型 (EU)低频振荡强度与长江下游暴雨频数成显著负相关 ,同时 ,提出了能揭示变量间非线性关系的对比函数分析 (CFA)方法 ,发现当 5～ 8月西太平洋型 (WP)低频流型偏强时 ,长江下游暴雨频数增加 ,容易发生洪涝 ;反之 ,无明显影响。仅当前期 3～ 5月南亚大陆型偏强时长江下游降水量偏少 ,而 3～ 5月南亚大陆型偏弱时暴雨频数明显增加。因此 ,长江下游旱涝与低频流型异常之间同时存在线性和非线性相关。     

Dynamic analysis of stacked rigid blocks

The dynamic behavior of a structural model of two stacked rigid blocks subjected to ground excitation is examined. Assuming no sliding, the rocking response of the system standing free on a rigid foundation is investigated. The derivation of the equations of motion accounts for the consecutive transition from one pattern of motion to another, each being governed by a set of highly nonlinear differential equations. The system behavior is described in terms of four possible patterns of response and impact between either the two blocks or the base block and the ground. The equations governing the rocking response of the system to horizontal and vertical ground accelerations are derived for each pattern, and an impact model is developed by conservation of angular momentum considerations. Numerical results are obtained by developing an ad hoc computational scheme that is capable of determining the response of the system under an arbitrary base excitation. This feature is demonstrated by using accelerograms from the Northridge, CA, 1994, earthquake. It is hoped that the two-blocks model used herein can facilitate the development of more sophisticated multi-block structural models.     

Two-dimensional nonlinear site response analysis of Adapazarı plain and predictions inferred from aftershocks of the Kocaeli earthquake of 17 August 1999

The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of local site conditions in the Adapazarı plain crossing the severely damaged central part of Sakarya during the 17th August earthquake. A two-dimensional model has been used to obtain the free-field motions in the valley and on surface formations. A preliminary geotechnical profile model developed from available but limited soil data was checked using recordings of some specific locations where a strong ground motion accelerometer array was in operation after the main earthquake. The range of validity of the model was assessed and modifications were made to compare with the actual recorded motions. The purpose of building such a model, which was used to study the aftershocks in Adapazarı, is to provide an improved database to be used for the design of structures in the city. This study also attempts to provide greater insight into the local site response phenomena through the use of a two-dimensional nonlinear analysis. Simulated site responses are in global agreement with the recorded data. In general agreement between the amplification functions of the computed and recorded data is satisfactory for the frequencies of engineering interest. Alluvial sites show amplification factors in the range of 4–6 in the frequencies between 0.6 and 2 Hz. A relatively shallow alluvial station, HASTAHANE, experienced considerable amplification for small aftershocks and deamplification for the strongest aftershock in frequencies between 0.5 and 2 Hz. Another station, TOYOTA, with significant deamplification characteristics and a clearly observed peak response frequency shift at the soil resonant frequency may have experienced soil shear failure during the strongest aftershock. Other alluvial stations, SEKER and GENC, show deamplification characteristics at 0.55 and at around 1 Hz. with the peak frequency shifts during the magnitude 5.8 aftershock. In general, site responses are larger in the alluvial basin for all aftershocks except the magnitude 5.8 event.