中层大气Rossby波与惯性重力波的非线性相互作用（Ⅱ）波包之间的相互激发

进一步讨论了大中尺度Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波与惯性重力波的非线性相互作用问题．从共振相互作用曲线来看，Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波和惯性重力波可以在相当广泛的角谱范围内发生共振非线性相互作用．在一定条件下，一个大振幅波包可以激发两个小振幅波包不稳定增长而出现参量不稳定现象，这三个波包可以是同种类型或不同类型的波包．当两个大振幅波包发生相互作用时，非线性过程会产生另一个波包并使它增长，并且增长速度大于仅有一个大振幅波包时的增长速度．大尺度Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波包税发两个较小尺度惯性重力波的过程是一种重要的能量串级（ｃａｓｃａｄｅ）过程．     

地球物理非线性反演模拟退火法的改进

在地球物理非线性反演方法中，模拟退火法是一种较先进的启发式蒙特卡洛（ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ）方法．但是，在处理实际资料时，该方法存在着计算效率不够高的缺点，有时还会失效．为此，从模拟退少法的关键问题──最低温度的选择入手，根据模拟退火法与统计力学的吉布斯－马尔柯夫（Ｇｉｂｂｓ－Ｍａｒｋｏｖ）模型之间的关系导出临界温度的近似表达式；用此式分析目标函数超曲面形状对模拟退火法计算的影响；提出利用模糊先验信息确定最低温度、改造目标函数等改进措施．     

双频道频谱激电非线性效应研究

利用双频道激发极化法，在封闭条件下和三维大水槽中，对４０余块各种天然矿物标本进行了频谱激电非线性效应研究．实验结果和理论分析表明，当电流密度增加到一定程度时，将出现激电非线性现象．用双频道频谱激电方法，将得到锯齿状频谱曲线．不同类型的矿物，锯齿状频谱曲线具有不同的特征，为评价激电异常源性质提供了新方法．     

自组织人工神经网络在地震综合预报中的应用

运用三维Ｔ·ｋｏｈｏｎｅｎ自组织人工神经网络进行地震综合预报，以云南多震区─滇西南地震区为例进行实际判别计算，预测成功率达１００％。结果表明．神经网络方法性能较好，可望成为进行地震实际预报的一种有效的辅助手段。     

On numerical earthquake prediction

Can earthquakes be predicted? How should people overcome the difficulties encountered in the study of earthquake prediction? This issue can take inspiration from the experiences of weather forecast. Although weather forecasting took a period of about half a century to advance from empirical to numerical forecast, it has achieved significant success. A consensus has been reached among the Chinese seismological community that earthquake prediction must also develop from empirical forecasting to physical prediction. However, it is seldom mentioned that physical prediction is characterized by quantitatively numerical predictions based on physical laws. This article discusses five key components for numerical earthquake prediction and their current status. We conclude that numerical earthquake prediction should now be put on the planning agenda and its roadmap designed, seismic stations should be deployed and observations made according to the needs of numerical prediction, and theoretical research should be carried out.     

Nonlinear and multifractal approaches of the geomagnetic field

Recent nonlinear dynamics techniques have been developed to analyse chaotic time series data. We first summarize the procedure which gives an appropriate reconstruction of the unknown dynamics from scalar measurements in a pseudophase space. It permits, firstly, the representation of the trajectories of the dynamical system—they define an attractor when the system is dissipative—by preserving its topological properties. We then present the invariant measures and ergodic quantities such as the multifractal spectrum and Lyapunov exponents which can be estimated on the reconstructed attractor. The multifractal analysis provides us with a characterization of the scaling energy of the process whereas the Lyapunov exponent gives another statistical measure of the stability of the dynamics. The estimation of these quantities was tested on synthetic data. The nonlinear and multifractal analyses were finally applied to the hourly mean values of the magnetic field recorded at the Eskdalemuir (ESK) observatory over 79 years (692,520 data measurements for each component). The estimations of a 5-dimensional pseudo-phase space and a positive Lyapunov exponent confirm the possibility of low-dimensional deterministic chaos in the magnetic field observations at ESK observatory. The correlation between the solar activity (the Wolf number), the unstable nature of the magnetic field, and the singularity spectrum points out the forcing of the solar cycles on the dynamics of the magnetic field at ESK observatory.     

残余位移反应谱的参数影响研究

从PEER强震数据库中选取4类场地的320条地震动记录作为输入,采用BISPEC程序对非线性单自由度（SDOF）体系（周期T=0.05—5s）进行非线性时程分析,得到相应的残余位移反应谱（Dres）,进而研究地震动特性和恢复力模型动力参数对Dres的影响,得到如下结论：①Dres谱值随震级和PGA的增加而增大;其他设防烈度的Dres可由PGA其他与PGA基准之比调整基准烈度的Dres得到。②场地土较硬时,场地类型对Dres的影响较小;场地土较软时,Dres谱值随土质的变软而增大。③当位移延性比μ较小时,屈服后刚度比η对Dres的影响可忽略;但当μ较大时,Dres谱值随η的增加而减小。另外,Dres谱值还随阻尼比ξ的增加而减小。④随着T或μ的增大,Dres谱值均呈递增趋势;但当μ>3后,μ对Dres谱值的影响有所下降。     

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of Meloland Road Overpass using three-dimensional continuum modeling approach

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) continuum nonlinear analysis of the Meloland Road Overpass (MRO) near El Centro, California. The modeling methodology and the computational tools are discussed in detail. The performance of the computational model is evaluated by comparing the computed responses with the responses recorded at the bridge site during the 1979 Imperial Valley and 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. Amongst the recorded earthquake events at the bridge site, these two events caused the strongest shaking. The comparison shows that the 3D model is potentially an effective tool for detailed analysis of a full bridge system including foundation soils, pile foundations, embankments, supporting columns, and the bridge structure itself in a unified system without relying on any ancillary models such as Winkler springs. Additional response parameters such as displacements, rockings, and bending moments are also evaluated although none of these was measured during the seismic events.     

单斜介质中方位NMO速度Thomsen参数反演方法研究

采用启发式共轭梯度法,即随机爬山法 + 共轭梯度法,利用单斜介质中P波方位NMO速度椭圆轴向偏转角度接近于零这一特性,简化P波方位NMO速度公式,并利用多方位P波NMO速度,反演出某一初始CMP观测线与自然坐标系之间的夹角,作为进一步进行Thomsen各向异性参数反演的基础. 根据各向异性介质中方位NMO速度与Thomsen参数之间的关系,建立了利用三种波的多方位NMO速度及垂直传播速度反演单层单斜各向异性介质Thomsen各向异性参数的目标函数. 对计算的理论值添加具有一定标准差的正态分布的随机噪声,用以模拟实际观测存在的误差,通过对加噪后的数据进行多次反演的误差分析,表明了所建立的目标函数及选用的反演方法是有效可行的,而且相对稳定.     

强震地面运动的解析解

本文用具有非线性Ｒａｙｌｅｉｇｈ阻尼的断裂动力学的控制方程组或方程来研究水平强震地面运动或垂直强震地面运动，并得出其解析解，数值计算结果显示，本文得出的结果与任意选择的两个强震记录是很相似的。