山东省层状云系中湍流扩散系数的分布特征

计算了山东省不同天气系统、不同时间云中和晴空中的湍流扩散系数,主要结果为：云中３～４ｋｍ高度层间的扩散系数主要在２０～７０ｍ２ｓ－１间,晴空小于３０ｍ２ｓ－１;云中扩散系数的平均值一般随高度增加而增大,冬、夏半年各高度层上的Ｋ值相关不大。     

Observational Study on the Supercooled Fog Droplet Spectrum Distribution and Icing Accumulation Mechanism in Lushan,Southeast China

A fog monitor, hotplate total precipitation sensor, weather identifier and visibility sensor, ultrasonic wind speed meter,an icing gradient observation frame, and an automated weather station were involved in the observations at the Lushan Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi Province, China. In this study, for the icing process under a cold surge from 20–25 January2016, the duration, frequency, and spectrum distribution of agglomerate fog were analyzed. The effects of rain, snow, and supercooled fog on icing growth were studied and the icing and meteorological conditions at two heights(10 m and 1.5 m)were compared. There were 218 agglomerate fogs in this icing process, of which agglomerate fogs with durations less than and greater than 10 min accounted for 91.3% and 8.7%, respectively. The average time interval was 10.3 min. The fog droplet number concentration for sizes 2–15 μm and 30–50 μm increased during rainfall, and that for 2–27 μm decreased during snowfall. Icing grew rapidly(1.3 mm h-1) in the freezing rain phase but slowly(0.1 mm h-1) during the dry snow phase. Intensive supercooled fog, lower temperatures and increased wind speed all favored icing growth during dry snow(0.5 mm h-1). There were significant differences in the thickness, duration, density, and growth mechanism of icing at the heights of 10 m and 1.5 m. Differences in temperature and wind speed between the two heights were the main reasons for the differences in icing conditions, which indicated that icing was strongly affected by height.     

Behaviour of Coupled Modes in a Simple Nonlinear Air-Sea Interaction Model

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导致区域性雷暴大风天气的云型分类及统计特征分析

利用2005—2011年的静止卫星、常规探空和重要天气报资料,文章选取了18次典型区域性雷暴大风过程,在分析500 hPa天气形势基础上对导致雷暴大风的强对流云型进行了分类分析,其发展过程可划分为初始、发展、成熟和消亡四个阶段。对静止卫星观测的定量特征分析表明,对流云团中IR1通道和水汽(WV)通道的亮温差基本为负值,其值的不断减小预示着强对流在持续发展;在监测和预报雷暴大风天气时,需要特别关注长椭圆形强对流云带的右侧和其右侧的孤立对流云团,尤其是TBB(红外亮度温度)低负值区、TBB高梯度区、IR1和WV通道亮温差值区及大梯度区均配合的区域。在定性分析的基础上对静止卫星IR1与WV通道的亮温特征进行了定量统计分析,获得了雷暴大风出现站点附近的红外亮温、水汽亮温、IR1与WV通道亮温差和红外亮温梯度的分布情况,结果发现大部分站点的雷暴大风天气出现在以下时段:红外亮温由急剧下降到平缓下降之间的过渡期;IR1与WV通道亮温差由迅速下降转为缓慢下降或稳定少变的时间点前后,且多数处于IR1和WV通道亮温差由正转负临近的时间段内;红外亮温梯度达到最大的时间点附近或开始下降的时候。     

一次西南低涡引起的杭嘉湖地区特大暴雨分析

通过对１９９７年８月１３日特大暴雨过程的分析,揭示了暴雨发生前环境场各烦物理量分布特征,发现物理量的强梯度带对暴雨的发生发展起了十分重要的作用,而且物理量强梯度带的形成,加强和移动对暴雨落区预报提供了依据。     

Localized multi-scale energy and vorticity analysis: II. Finite-amplitude instability theory and validation

A novel localized finite-amplitude hydrodynamic stability analysis is established in a unified treatment for the study of real oceanic and atmospheric processes, which are in general highly nonlinear, and intermittent in space and time. We first re-state the classical definition using the multi-scale energy and vorticity analysis (MS-EVA) developed in Liang and Robinson [Liang, X.S., Robinson, A.R., 2005. Localized multiscale energy and vorticity analysis. I. Fundamentals. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 38, 195–230], and then manipulate certain global operators to achieve the temporal and spatial localization. The key of the spatial localization is transfer-transport separation, which is made precise with the concept of perfect transfer, while relaxation of marginalization leads to the localization of time. In doing so the information of transfer lost in the averages is retrieved and an easy-to-use instability metric is obtained. The resulting metric is field-like (Eulerian), conceptually generalizing the classical formalism, a bulk notion over the whole system. In this framework, an instability has a structure, which is of particular use for open flow processes. We check the structure of baroclinic instability with the benchmark Eady model solution, and the Iceland–Faeroe Frontal (IFF) intrusion, a highly localized and nonlinear process occurring frequently in the region between Iceland and Faeroe Islands. A clear isolated baroclinic instability is identified around the intrusion, which is further found to be characterized by the transition from a spatially growing mode to a temporally growing mode. We also check the consistency of the MS-EVA dynamics with the barotropic Kuo model. An observation is that a local perturbation burst does not necessarily imply an instability: the perturbation energy could be transported from other processes occurring elsewhere. We find that our analysis yields a Kuo theorem-consistent mean–eddy interaction, which is not seen in a conventional Reynolds stress framework. Using the techniques of marginalization and localization, this work sets up an example for the generalization of certain geophysical fluid dynamics theories for more generic purposes.     

误差扣除法在云南中尺度数值模式中对气压梯度力的计算试验

使用云南中尺度数值预报试验模式^[1]，引入实际地形，选用静力扣除格式、回插格式、局地等温格式、经典修正格式以及模式中原计算格式（Corby格式）等5种计算格式计算气压梯度力，对气压梯度力的误差和扣除法进行了模拟试验。比较了这5种格式在有、无误差扣除时的模拟结果之后，发现误差扣除法与上述格式结合使用时，均能够不同程度地提高预报效果，尤其是在与经典修正格式结合使用以后，预报效果进一步改善，得到了较满意的模拟效果。     

未来半个世纪江淮流域夏季降水变化趋势的数值模拟结果分析

基于政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)A2和B2温室气体排放方案下全球海气耦合模式模拟结果,分析了未来半个世纪中国江淮流域夏季降水变化趋势,发现江淮流域在经历21世纪开始10年降水偏多时期后,从2010年开始该地区将经历一段降水偏少的时期,在温室气体和SO2排放量较多的A2方案下,该时期将维持较长时间.这些地区夏季降水的减少与夏季西北太平洋副热带高压环流的减弱东撤有关,由此伴随这些地区夏季风和对流层中大气上升运动的减弱,而西北太平洋副热带高压环流的减弱东撤与北太平洋海表面南高北低的温度梯度的减小有关.     

有地形坡度的非线性Kelvin行波

提出了一个考虑地形坡度的非线性Kelvin行波解的模型，在假定了地形坡度沿山脉走向不变而仅在垂直于山脉走向的方向有改变的情况下，求得了该模型的解析解，这有助于加深对沿海山地捕获波的认识。文中还将该解与经典情形(即侧边界取为垂直刚壁而底面为水平)的解作了比较，发现前者的波速与扰动振幅均较后者要小，这与我国东南沿海武夷山区的沿海山地捕获波的情况相一致。     

Effect of tropospheric temperature change on the zonal mean circulation and SH winter extratropical cyclones

This study aims to understand the mechanisms which cause an overall reduction of SH extratropical cyclone activity with a slight increase in the high latitudes in a warmer climate simulated in general circulation models (GCMs) with increasing CO₂. For this purpose, we conducted idealized model experiments by forcing warm temperature anomalies to the areas where climate change models exhibit local maximum warming—the tropics in the upper troposphere and the polar regions in the lower troposphere—simultaneously and separately. The Melbourne University atmospheric GCM (R21) coupled with prescribed SST was utilized for the experiments. Our results demonstrate that the reduction of SH extratropical cyclone frequency and depth in the midlatitudes but the slight increase in the high latitudes suggested in climate change models result essentially from the tropical upper tropospheric warming. With this tropical warming, the enhanced static stability which decreases baroclinicity in the low and midlatitudes turns out to be a major contributor to the decrease of cyclone activity equatorward of 45°S whereas the increased meridional temperature gradient in the high latitudes seems an important mechanism for the increase of cyclone activity over 50°–60°S.