福建深沪湾晚更新世古牡蛎滩的发育与留存古环境

福建深沪湾晚更新世古牡蛎滩以牡蛎原生、分布面积大 ,年龄主要在25800±2490aB P～15460±420aB P之间为其主要特征 ,在牡蛎生长期间 ,深沪湾地壳抬升速率与水动型海平面上升速率相当 ,深沪湾海水深度稳定 ,海岸环境稳定 ,古牡蛎繁盛生长 ,其后深沪湾地壳抬升成陆 ,古牡蛎滩脱离海水成为牡蛎滩台地 ,距今7000a和距今2000a的两次强古地震 ,使古牡蛎滩快速下沉到潮下带和潮间带海底 ,这是深沪湾晚更新世古牡蛎滩能留存到今天的重要原因。     

澜沧—耿马地震前后水氡状态吸引子初探

本文采用“根据时间序列数据重建复杂系统动力学特征”的方法,对澜沧—耿马地震前后澜沧、普洱、思茅和芒市台的水氡旬均值进行了处理,得到震前澜沧.普洱和芒市台水氡状态吸引子维数d在1.0—3.0之间,这从理论上说明了澜沧—耿马地震孕育过程中此三台站水氡变化遵从某些确定性规律,并指出了这些确定性规律所依赖的基本变量数目范围,这对认识大震孕育过程中水氡变化的动力学行为具有一定意义。     

Estimate of earthquake hazard in the Vrancea (Romania) region

A maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters maximum magnitudeM _max, annual activity rate , and theb value of the Gutenberg-Richter equation in the Vrancea (Romania) region. The applied procedure permits the use of mixed catalogs with incomplete historical as well as complete instrumental parts, the consideration of variable detection thresholds, and the incorporation of earthquake magnitude uncertainty.Our imput data, comprises 105 historical earthquakes which occurred between 984 and 1934, and a complete data file containing 1067 earthquakes which occurred during the period 1935–30 August, 1986. The complete part was divided into four subcatalogs according to different thresholds of completeness. Only subcrustal events were considered, and dependent events were removed.The obtained value (=0.65) is at the lower range of the previously reported results, but it appears concurrent with conceptual and observational facts. The same concerns inferred value of _max = 7.8 and activity rate _4.0 = 5.34.     

A method for estimating earthquake occurrence probability using first- and multiple-order Markov chain models

It is valuable in earthquake prediction to determine the occurrence probability of major earthquakes by making use of data obtained from precursory phenomena up to the time of the evaluation. In this study, the time evolution of the state determined by earthquakes and precursory phenomena was modelled using Markov chains. Various probabilities suitable for earthquake prediction were derived from the transition probability of the Markov chain with a chosen length of memory time. As an example, earthquake sequence records for northern China, which covered a period of about two thousand years, were examined and the results were also obtained from modern scientific observations of the radon anomaly which covered a period of about 10 years.Assuming moderate-sized earthquakes of two magnitude ranges 4 3/4 M 5 3/4, 6 M 6 3/4 as precursors to large earthquakes of a magnitude range, 7 M 8 1/2, transition probabilities were calculated for a time interval from 2 to 40 yr. The results showed that the precursory time of moderate-sized earthquakes is mainly distributed in a time span of around several years and that the earthquake occurrence probability is considerably large when the precursory earthquakes occur successively. Furthermore, it was shown that a larger moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 5 3/4) is a more effective precursor than an entire moderate-sized earthquake (4 3/4 M 6 3/4).Second, a multiple precursor case was tried by means of simulation based on the radon anomaly data obtained during a limited observation period. Simultaneous occurrence of two precursors makes the earthquake occurrence probability increase by 1.5–2.0 for a reasonable choice of a mean recurrence interval of the radon anomaly compared with the case where only a moderate-sized earthquake was treated as the precursor. However, the probability is much the same if the average recurrence interval of the radon anomaly is the same through time, including the preparatory period before the earthquake.     

The 24 May 2014 (Mw6.8) earthquake (North Aegean Trough): Spatiotemporal evolution,source and slip model from teleseismic data

We use teleseismic data to calculate the source model of the 24 May 2014 earthquake and regional catalogues to examine the spatial-temporal characteristics of the sequence. The sequence started in Saros Basin but almost simultaneously aftershocks spread along a ∼200 km zone, activating the entire North Aegean Trough. The aftershock sequence was rich in moderate (M < 4) size events, but very deficient in strong events – only two Mw4.9 aftershocks-a characteristic observed in previous sequences in the region. The teleseismic waveforms were best fit by two sub-events, which were lagged by 18 s in time and by a 50 km jump in space, along the same fault line. The centroid depth of the first sub-event is 22 km, at the base of the lower crust, and for the second is 14 km. The resolved total source time function is ∼30 s. The finite-fault slip model is characterized by an asymmetric bilateral rupture propagation, to the west and east of the hypocentre. The major slip is confined downdip from the hypocentre, within the deeper 12–25 km part. This deep slip migrated updip from the hypocentre to form the second slip patch, in the eastward segment. In all our models the maximum dislocation was of the order of 1 m. For our preferred model parametrization, the rupture speed is 3 km/s, and the scalar moment equal to 1.76 × 10¹⁹ Nm (Mw6.8). This earthquake highlighted the fact that strike-slip faulting in the North Aegean Sea, can attain large lengths and activate very wide zones, reaching densely populated regions.     

基于PCA的地震官方微博影响力评价研究

随着政务微博用户规模及影响力的不断提升,微博作为地震部门传播平台,在地震信息传播方面发挥着巨大的作用。本文在充分考虑地震部门行业特点的基础上,对30个地震官方微博数据进行收集,利用主成分分析法(PCA)归纳出3种地震微博的主要影响指标,即服务力主成分、交互力主成分和创作力主成分,并由此构建出地震官方微博影响力评估指标体系,在此基础上计算得出各地震官方微博的主成分指标得分和影响力综合得分,最后根据得分情况对地震官方微博影响力提出了具可行性的提升策略。     

四川地震预警网外玛多7.4级地震预警分析研究

2021年5月22日2时4分青海省玛多县发生M7.4地震。四川地震预警台网成功地处理并产出了本次地震预警结果。本文针对四川地震预警系统产出的8次地震预警处理结果及预警减灾效能进行了分析。此次地震震中距四川地震预警网55km,首台触发后12.19s发布首次预警处理结果,前5次预警处理结果用时距离首台触发时间均小于35s。与正式地震目录对比,第1次预警处理结果震中位置偏差为17.1km,震级偏差为-1.8,盲区半径为121km。随着参与计算台站数量增多,震中位置偏差和震级偏差不断减小,盲区半径不断增大。由于地震破裂时间长和台站限幅等原因,8次预警震级均偏小。本次地震预警的有效获益区为震中距121～324km的环形区域,此区域内减灾效能显著。本次地震预警结果表明,四川地震预警系统在本次地震中预警产出效果较好,对于网外大地震预警有重要参考意义。     

中国地震预警延迟时间算法及其对预警盲区的影响研究

通过分析预警系统的预警步骤来探讨影响获得预警时间的因素,并与瑞士地震台网预警延迟各步骤进行对比,得出中国地震预警系统仪器延迟时间为7.6s。提出地震波到台站所需时间的算法,较震中假设在台站中间的传统算法更为准确,在此算法下采用双台法和四台法计算接收地震波所需时间,得到中国地震预警延迟时间。讨论双台法和四台法在不同震源深度和台站密度下对预警盲区大小的影响,在台间距小于20km时,2种方法预警盲区差异不大。通过理论计算得出,在台站到达一定密度时,预警系统仪器延迟时间缩短比台站加密对预警盲区的缩小更有效。     

防震减灾科普需求和满意度调查指标设计及结果分析

本文针对2020年全国公众防震减灾科普满意度调查工作,设计了防震减灾科普公众接触率、受众收获评价、公众满意度和需求等指标,量化衡量防震减灾科普在公众中的触达现状、公众的收获评价、反馈评价和需求。调查结果显示,公众与防震减灾科普的接触较普遍,受众收获评价和满意度评价总体得分较高。防震减灾科普公众接触率在不同城乡、年龄、学历、职业等层面的群体差异较明显。科普活动的公众接触率相对较低,受众收获评价较高,公众对活动新颖性的满意度评价低于活动组织管理。科普作品的公众接触率最高,但受众收获评价较低,在促进公众技能提升方面具有明显短板,公众对作品形式新颖性的满意度评价低于内容通俗易懂性。科普场所的公众接触率最低,但受众收获评价最高,对公众知识、技能、意识的提升作用较好。公众对科普场所信息查找便利性的满意度较低,导致科普场所满意度评价低于科普活动和科普作品。分析表明,需重视公众需求和反馈,采取有针对性的措施进一步提升防震减灾科普效率。     

卫星定位导航系统在地震应急救援中的应用

在对地震灾害特点综合分析的基础上,分析了地震应急响应与救援决策中的关键性问题。认为震害的规模、程度、空间分布和灾情发展趋势,以及快速获取灾情信息已成为整个地震应急响应和救援决策的关键;而对灾情空间分布及其不同灾情程度位置的确定是救援决策的先导与重要环节。卫星定位导航技术在地震应急搜救的信息快速获取、应急响应、救援决策、指挥、搜索与营救等救援行动的整个过程中,都将发挥其强大的功能。建议研发中国北斗灾害应急救援导航与指挥决策系统,包括地震灾情快速获取、快速判定和决策定位导航技术系统、地震救援指挥调度技术系统和应急救援物流定位导航技术系统建设;研发北斗灾害应急救援导航装备,包括自主定位导航幸存者搜索和营救设备研发和国内外巨灾救援专用定位与导航系统研发。