Earthquake detection probability within a seismically quiet area: application to the Bruchsal geothermal field

In applications such as oil and gas production, deep geothermal energy production, underground storage, and mining, it is common practice to implement local seismic networks to monitor and to mitigate induced seismicity. For this purpose, it is crucial to determine the capability of the network to detect a seismic event of predefined magnitude in the target area. The determination of the magnitude of completeness of a network is particularly required to properly interpret seismic monitoring results. We propose a method to compute the detection probability for existing local seismic networks, which (i) strictly follows the applied detection sequence; (ii) estimates the detection capability where seismicity has not yet occurred; and (iii) delivers the results in terms of probabilities. The procedure includes a calibration of a local magnitude scale using regional earthquakes recorded by the network and located outside the monitored area. It involves pre‐processing of the seismograms recorded at each station as performed during the triggering sequence, which is assumed based on amplitude thresholds. Then, the calibrated magnitude–distance–amplitude relations are extrapolated at short distances and combined to reproduce the network detection sequence. This generates a probability to detect a seismic event of a given magnitude at a specified location. This observation‐based approach is an alternative to a fully theoretical detection capability modelling and includes field conditions. Seismic wave attenuation by geometrical spreading and intrinsic attenuation, site effect, and instrumental responses are partly accounted for by the calibration. We apply this procedure on the seismic network deployed in the Bruchsal geothermal field (Germany). Although the system was in good working order, no induced seismicity was identified in the area between June 2010, when monitoring started, and November 2012. The recording of distant seismicity during this time period, however, allowed the application of the proposed procedure. According to the applied network detection parameters, the results indicate that the absence of seismicity can be interpreted as a 95% probability that no seismic event with M_L ≥ 0.7 occurred below the network at 2.4‐km depth, i.e., in the geothermal reservoir.     

一种基于全局优化的交错网格有限差分法

在地震波场数值模拟中, 交错网格有限差分技术得到了广泛的应用, 但是在弹性模量变化较大时, 通常会因插值而导致模拟误差增大. 旋转交错网格可以很好地克服这个缺点, 因而适合于各向异性介质正演模拟. 但是对于同样大小的网格单元, 旋转交错网格需要的步长比常规交错网格要大, 这会使梯度和散度算子的误差增大因而更易产生空间数值频散. 针对这些问题, 本文提出了旋转交错网格与紧致有限差分相结合的方法, 并基于模拟退火算法进行全局优化, 压制数值频散, 拓宽波数范围. 数值模拟结果表明, 此方法可以有效地压制数值频散, 且具有较高的模拟精度.      

基于植被动态的黄土高原生态地理分区

生态地理区划作为自然区划的新分支,近年来受到国内外地理学者的广泛关注,其在认识地理分异规律及区域规划活动中发挥着重要作用。传统生态地理分区多依据自上而下的三级演绎途径,且对于多分区方案的对比与优选缺乏定量化准则。黄土高原作为中国典型的生态脆弱区,植被生长与恢复对缓解当地生态困境十分重要,因此以植被多年动态一致性特征作为分区合理性的评价指标,有助于准确揭示当地生境特点及分异规律。为此,选取热量类、水分类、地形类及地表覆被类共9个指标,采用自组织映射网络（SOFM）与GIS空间分析技术,基于黄土高原近30年来自然本底与覆被状况进行生态地理分区;并依循植被动态一致性准则,依据两步筛选法对多种方案进行优选,最终将黄土高原分为六大生态地理区。研究表明：黄土高原修正6分区方案在12个备选分区方案中效果最好;同时,修正6分区方案多年平均NPP离散系数最低,表明该分区内部离散程度最小。分区方案与既有分区方案相比具有较好的一致性,但由于区划尺度存在一定的差异,整体区域划分更为清晰。对生态地理分区方案优选定量方法的探索,有助于提升自下而上生态地理区划的客观性。     

基于公平最大化目标的2020年北京市养老设施布局优化

北京市正快速步入老龄化社会,机构养老作为一种重要的养老模式,对其布局公平性和合理性的研究具有重要的科学和现实意义。本文首先预测了自然增长状态下2020年北京市老龄人口的空间分布,然后建立设施布局优化模型,该模型以各需求点到养老设施的可达性差异最小化为目标;并采用粒子群优化算法求解,对北京市养老设施进行以公平最大化为目标的布局优化。研究结果表明,在公平最大化的目标下,首都功能核心区和城市功能拓展区(即中心城区)所提供的机构养老资源不能完全满足本地需求。城市发展新区在满足当地的机构养老需求之外,还将为中心城区提供大量机构养老服务,生态涵养发展区在满足本地需求的基础上还可为其他地区提供少量机构养老服务。该布局导向与《北京市养老设施专项规划》提出的布局建议相一致,且符合中心城区用地紧张、郊区自然环境较舒适的现实情况。研究结果能为养老政策的制定提供科学建议,所采用的方法也能为其他类型公共服务设施的布局优化提供借鉴。     

一种基于改进蚁群算法与GIS的多约束配送中心选址方法

针对单一指派约束和容量约束的设施选址问题（Single Source Capacitated Facility Location Problem, SSCFLP）,建立了一种基于改进蚁群算法与GIS的配送中心选址方法。构建了以总成本费用最小为目标的配送中心选址模型;提出了适合求解SSCFLP问题的改进双层蚁群算法,将求解过程划分为彼此关联的设施选择层和需求指派层2层蚁群,采用改进的全局信息素更新策略加强双层蚁群交流,并对迭代最优解的指派关系进行局部优化;将方法应用于汽车配送中心的选址,利用GIS工具构建选址空间。实验结果表明,该选址方法能找到质量较好的选址及指派结果,对于求解同类问题具有较强的借鉴意义。     

空间约束对概念的提出与实现

等价类对数据库查询计划的生成与优化有重要作用。为了减少查询计划的搜索空间,空间数据库管理系统（Ingres）,将空间拓扑关系视为等价关系,并将空间拓扑关系沉入查询树底端先执行。由于非等值空间关系谓词不具备等价类的传递性,常常导致一些空间查询不能正确执行。本文提出了空间约束对的概念,即将非等值空间谓词连接的2个空间列、或某表的空间列与其空间索引表中的KEY列（记录了MBR）视为空间约束对。空间约束对除不具备等价关系的自反性、对称性和传递性外,其启发式策略仍可沿用等价类的相关规则。此外,本文还探讨了空间约束对在Ingres中的实现,并开展了相关的实证研究。实验表明：将空间拓扑谓词两端的属性视为空间约束对后,原本不能正确执行的查询语句,在改后的Ingres中能正确地找到较优执行计划。     

土壤重金属连续提取方法的优化

重金属在污染土壤中的形态分布决定着重金属的迁移性和危害的程度。土壤重金属形态分析应用最多的是Tessier和BCR连续提取法。Tessier和BCR连续提取法没有考虑土壤样品的特征。美国环保署危险废物浸出毒性鉴别标准法虽然考虑土壤pH值,但没有划分形态。采集不同pH土样,结合Tessier、BCR和毒性浸出鉴别方法的特征,优化出针对不同pH值土壤的连续提取方法,将土壤中重金属划分为活性态、次生碳酸盐结合态、次稳定态和稳定态。用优化的连续提取方法对土样进行连续提取,重金属回收率为85%~115%。优化连续提取方法的结果与Tessier和BCR结果对比显示优化连续提取方法克服了Tessier连续提取法对非石灰质土壤提取过量BCR连续提取法对石灰质土壤提取不足的缺点。优化后的连续提取方法数据稳定可靠,可作为重金属形态分析方法使用。     

Structure of residual oil as a function of wettability using pore-network modelling

In the water flooding of mixed-wet porous media, oil may drain down to relatively low residual oil saturations (S_or). Various studies have indicated that such low saturations can only be reached when oil layers in pore corners are included in the pore-scale modelling. These processes within a macroscopic porous medium can be modelled at the pore-scale by incorporating the fundamental physics of capillary dominated displacement within idealised pore network models. Recently, the authors have developed thermodynamic criteria for oil layer existence in pores with non-uniform wettability which takes as input geometrically and topologically representative networks, to calculate realistic S_or values for mixed-wet and oil-wet sandstones [16, 21]. This previous work is developed in this paper to include (i) the visualisation of the 3D structure of this residual oil, and (ii) a statistical analysis of this “residual/remaining” oil. Both the visualisation and the statistical analysis are done under a wide range of wettability conditions, which is reported for the first time in this paper.The structure of residual oil for strongly water wet systems is well known (where residual = remaining oil) and our model agrees with this but this structure changes radically for mixed wet systems (where residual ≠ remaining) and this has not yet been visualised experimentally. We find that for more water-wet systems high final residual oil saturations are reached at relatively small amounts of water injected and this oil is present in the pores as bulk oil. On the other hand, for more oil-wet systems we find a slow decrease of the amount of remaining oil with increasing amounts of injected water. During the process, the remaining connectivity of the oil phase is increasingly provided by oil layers only, hence the slow drainage. The final residual oil saturation, only reached in the theoretical limit of an infinite amount of injected water, is almost entirely contained in large number of (relatively low volume) oil layers, which are present in pores of most radius sizes.     

A parallel dynamic programming algorithm for multi-reservoir system optimization

This paper develops a parallel dynamic programming algorithm to optimize the joint operation of a multi-reservoir system. First, a multi-dimensional dynamic programming (DP) model is formulated for a multi-reservoir system. Second, the DP algorithm is parallelized using a peer-to-peer parallel paradigm. The parallelization is based on the distributed memory architecture and the message passing interface (MPI) protocol. We consider both the distributed computing and distributed computer memory in the parallelization. The parallel paradigm aims at reducing the computation time as well as alleviating the computer memory requirement associated with running a multi-dimensional DP model. Next, we test the parallel DP algorithm on the classic, benchmark four-reservoir problem on a high-performance computing (HPC) system with up to 350 cores. Results indicate that the parallel DP algorithm exhibits good performance in parallel efficiency; the parallel DP algorithm is scalable and will not be restricted by the number of cores. Finally, the parallel DP algorithm is applied to a real-world, five-reservoir system in China. The results demonstrate the parallel efficiency and practical utility of the proposed methodology.     

北京地区主要活断层活动参数的重力反演

采用1991~1999年首都圈重力测网的重力测量资料,根据地质调查结果确定断层初始运动模型,利用稳健—贝叶斯最小二乘方法反演北京地区4条活断层的活动参数(走滑、倾滑、引张)。反演结果表明:在1991~1999年间,北京地区活断层的运动性质均以走滑和垂直升降为主,兼有伸展特征,但运动速率都不大,约为2 mm/a。北京地区北西走向断层反演的运动特征为左旋走滑正断层,北东走向断层反演的运动特征为右旋走滑正断层。