一个基于中尺度数值模式的城市分区空气污染预报方法

以深圳市为例，对污染物浓度与各种大气参数的定量联系进行了细致的统计及物理分析，在此基础上建立起分区的城市空气污染潜势等级预报方案。该方案定量考虑了地面和边界层共十几个因子的影响，特别是考虑了地理环境各向异性的效应，将风向作为一个独立的影响因子。方案还针对各污染物稀释特性的差异对不同污染物分别建立潜势预报方案。另外，方案还考虑了相同大气条件下大气对城市不同区域污染物稀释特性可能存在的差异，对不同区域分别建立潜势预报方案。最后用高分辨的中尺度数值模式对大气参数的未来演变作出高时空分辨的预报，进而作出分区、分时段的城市空气污染潜势预报。本方法完全客观定量，物理意义明确，可制作高时间分辨的空气污染潜势预报。     

阿勒泰冬季西部区域性偏东大风的成因分析

通过对阿勒泰地区1991～2000年西部区域性偏东大风天气的气候特征、环流形势及地形进行分析，归结出产生西部区域性偏东大风天气的成因及预报指标。     

鹤壁市春旱动态监测及分析

利用鹤壁市淇县1971～2000年降水、底墒、蒸发资料，建立了适用于对春旱进行实时业务监测的动态模型；根据干旱指数大小确定春旱等级，并通过实例对比分析证实干旱指数在分析干旱动态演变过程中的作用。     

内蒙古武川-四子王旗地区地下水中的NO-3污染

三氮对人体的危害已引起人们的关注，NO3^--N是三氮的主体。本文分析了武川一四子王旗地区NO3^-的污染现状及其在水平和垂向上的分布特征和规律，研究了污染原因和过程，提出了相应的防治对策。     

四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究

借鉴美国旧金山湾和香港地区的经验,提出了地质灾害监测预警试验区建设和研究思路。经过近两年的工作,初步建成了四川雅安地质灾害监测预警试验区。取得的阶段性成果主要有:(1)根据现场考察和试验区地质灾害数据库,统计研究了降雨型滑坡的几何特征;(2)建成了由20台遥测雨量计构成的降雨观测网,取得了2002年4月～2003年8月的降雨观测数据;(3)结合历史降雨资料分析,初步研究了雅安试验区的年、日、小时和十分钟最大降雨特征;(4)研制了斜坡岩土体含水量野外监测仪,取得了桑树坡试验点2003年4月～8月的实时监测数据;(5)自上而下分4层研究了斜坡岩土层含水量变化,发现了岩土层含水量变化对降雨过程的滞后性;(6)基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法(AMFP),利用地质灾害因子分析结果,分别计算了雅安试验区地质灾害"发育度"和"潜势度";(7)利用2003年8月23～25日的过程降雨观测资料,对雅安试验区在该降雨过程中发生的地质灾害事件进行了时空预警反演模拟研究,计算出的地质灾害"危险度"分布比较符合实际,"危险度"可以作为预警指数使用。     

Exploration Indices and Mineral Potential Map of the Kuroko Deposits in Northeast Japan

Abstract. Recent discoveries of seafloor hydrothermal mineralization in submarine volcanic centers of felsic magma in western Pacific island arcs are regarded as modern analogues of Kuroko type deposits. Studies of these deposits and their surrounding geology raised question whether the exploration activity for the Kuroko deposits on land which peaked in the 1960's was adequate or not. However, such an evaluation is not easy because the exploration data are about to be lost as a result of the closure of all the Kuroko mines in the area since 1994.
The Metal Mining Agency of Japan (MMAJ), therefore, decided to compile existing data on about 180 Kuroko deposits and related mineral occurrences in northeast Japan as a new Kuroko database.
This study extends a concept called "exploration indices" which was developed based on a case study of the thoroughly surveyed Hokuroku district to draw a potential map of the Kuroko occurrences for the entire northeast Japan quantitatively with a Geographical Information System (GIS). Effective exploration indices include: 1) distribution of dacitic-rhy-olitic submarine volcanic rocks of the Nishikurosawa and Onnagawa stages, 2) distribution of intrusive rocks of pre- and post-Kuroko horizon, 3) low aeromagnetic anomaly caused by hydrothermal alteration of magnetite, 4) low gravity anomaly which suggests depressions in the basement rocks such as a tectonic basin and/or caldera, and 5) nearby existence of vein type deposits. It is concluded that about 33 % of known Kuroko deposits fall within the high potential zone (score=4 and 5) that occupies only 4 % of the entire northeast Japan arc. The Kuroko potential map is, therefore, useful for limiting the target area for Kuroko type deposits in an island arc setting.     

L'archivage des activités humaines par les neiges et glaces polaires : le cas du plomb

The investigation of the occurrence of lead in dated snow and ice from Greenland and Antarctica has played a major role in our understanding of the history of the pollution of the atmosphere of our planet by this metal. Such studies have however proved to be very demanding, mainly because of the extreme purity of polar snow and ice. Reliable measurements can be obtained only if ultra-clean and highly sensitive procedures are used, as pioneered by Clair Patterson. The Greenland data show evidence of large-scale pollution of the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere for lead as early as two millennia ago during Greco–Roman times, especially because of mining and smelting activities in southern Spain. It peaked at the end of the 1960s, with lead concentrations in snow about 200 times higher than natural values, before declining during recent times because of the fall in the use of leaded gasoline. Lead pollution in Antarctica was already significant at the end of the 19th century as a consequence of whaling activities, the traffic of coal-powered ships crossing the Cape Horn, and mining activities in South America, South Africa and Australia. After declining because of the opening of the Panama Canal, the great economic depression and World War II, it reached a maximum during the 1980s, with lead concentrations 20 times higher than natural values. Other studies focus on past natural variations of lead in ancient ice dated from the last climatic cycles. To cite this article: C. Boutron et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Dérive à la surface de l'océan sous l'effet des vagues

We model the drift velocity near the ocean surface separating the motion induced by the local current, itself influenced by winds and waves, and the motion induced by the waves, which are generated by local and remote winds. Application to the drift of ‘tar balls’, following the sinking of the oil tanker Prestige-Nassau in November 2002, shows that waves contribute at least one third of the drift for pollutants floating 1 m below the surface, with a mean direction about 30° to the right of the wind-sea direction. Although not new, this result was previously obtained with specific models, whereas the formalism used here combines classical wave and circulation forecasting models. To cite this article: F. Ardhuin et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

沙尘天气等对西安市空气污染影响的研究

通过对西安市1981—2000年TSP、SO2和NOx年平均浓度资料,1998—2000年周报和日报环境监测资料以及相应的地面、高空常规气象观测资料的统计分析,研究了该市空气污染的时间变化特点以及沙尘天气等几种气象条件对其浓度变化的影响。结果表明:(1)颗粒污染物(TSP和PM10)是西安市的首要污染物,其次是SO2。1981—2000年期间,TSP年平均浓度降低了75%,SO2年平均浓度降低了77%,NOx年平均浓度总体上变化不大;这三种污染物月平均浓度的年变化都呈单周期型,冬季1月份最高,夏季最低(TSP是7月份最低,SO2和NOx是8月份最低)。(2)2001年春季3～4月份沙尘天气的频繁发生,使西安市空气污染日出现全年的第二个多发期(23d·月-1),这有别于正常年份仅在冬季1月份出现一个浓度峰值的特点;强沙尘暴天气过程会使西安市PM10浓度在非常短的时间内提高3倍左右,造成严重的颗粒物污染。(3)西安市冬半年出现轻度污染以上级别的几率明显大于夏半年。影响西安市的地面天气系统可归纳为12类,当受不同天气系统控制时,其污染状况会有较大差异。(4)西安市一年四季都有逆温存在,100m平均逆温强度为0.90℃;全年以低层逆温出现日数最多,但冬季贴地逆温出现日数最多,厚度最厚,强度最大,是造成西安市冬季空气污染严重的最重要气象因素之一。(5)西安     

RIVER SYSTEM AND DISTURBANCE FACTORS IN THE LAKE TOBA

Situated at an elevation of 905 m above sea level in the Province of North Sumatra, Lake Toba and its surrounding landscapes are regarded as a natural heritage in a certain extent, as a quoted national treasure. Unfortunately degradation of the land and water resources in the watershed along Lake Toba is taking place at an alarming and totally unacceptable rate. The quality of the lake is partly depended on input the quality of the rivers. When compared to the control area the water quality that influenced by the piggeries are highly polluted. It can be concluded that the Salbe River at the downstream of the piggeries has been polluted and apparently it is a serious problem to the catchment area management. It should be noted that the polluted river would influence the water quality of the Lake Toba. Based on calculation, the permissible BOD5 according to B- river standard is 238 mg/L, it means the river still in B standard but the condition and quality are decreasing continuously. Following the Indonesian health standard the permissible BOD is - 461 mg/L. It means BOD in the river should be reduced 461 mg/L or clean program is needed.