2021年青海玛多7.4级地震前地震活动异常特征分析

结合青海玛多7.4级地震前日常跟踪工作中出现的地震活动异常,系统梳理羌塘块体6级地震成组、中国大陆5级地震低频活动、青藏高原东北缘中等地震活动显著增强以及青藏高原东北缘地区震群活动的时空异常特征,总结多项指标的预测意义,并对部分重要指标做了预测效能评估。同时,通过研究碌曲震群的时空分布特征,认为碌曲地区是一个应力敏感区域,对周边地区中强地震的发生有较好的预测意义,在后续震情监视过程中应该作为重要指标来跟踪。     

Spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of M9.0 megathrust earthquake sequences of wood‐frame houses in Victoria,British Columbia,Canada

Megathrust earthquake sequences, comprising mainshocks and triggered aftershocks along the subduction interface and in the overriding crust, can impact multiple buildings and infrastructure in a city. The time between the mainshocks and aftershocks usually is too short to retrofit the structures; therefore, moderate‐size aftershocks can cause additional damage. To have a better understanding of the impact of aftershocks on city‐wide seismic risk assessment, a new simulation framework of spatiotemporal seismic hazard and risk assessment of future M9.0 sequences in the Cascadia subduction zone is developed. The simulation framework consists of an epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, ground‐motion model, and state‐dependent seismic fragility model. The spatiotemporal ETAS model is modified to characterise aftershocks of large and anisotropic M9.0 mainshock ruptures. To account for damage accumulation of wood‐frame houses due to aftershocks in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, state‐dependent fragility curves are implemented. The new simulation framework can be used for quasi‐real‐time aftershock hazard and risk assessments and city‐wide post‐event risk management.     

The influence of earthquakes on the Chandler wobble during 1977–1983

Summary. A direct calculation is made of the effect on the Chandler wobble of 1287 earthquakes that occurred during 1977–1983. The hypocentral parameters (location and origin time) and the moment tensor representation of the best point source for each earthquake as determined by the 'centroidmoment tensor' technique were used to calculate the change in the Chandler wobble's excitation function by assuming this change is due solely to the static deformation field generated by that earthquake. The resulting theoretical earthquake excitation function is compared with the 'observed' excitation function that is obtained by deconvolving a Chandler wobble time series derived from LAGEOS polar motion data. Since only 7 years of data are available for analysis it is not possible to resolve the Chandler band and determine whether or not the theoretical earthquake excitation function derived here is coherent and in phase with the 'observed' excitation function in that band. However, since the power spectrum of the earthquake excitation function is about 56 dB less than that of the 'observed' excitation function at frequencies near the Chandler frequency, it is concluded that earthquakes, via their static deformation field, have had a negligible influence on the Chandler wobble during 1977–1983. However, fault creep or any type of aseismic slip that occurs on a time-scale much less than the period of the Chandler wobble could have an important (and still unmodelled) effect on the Chandler wobble.     

On the linear relation between mb and Ms for discrimination between explosions and earthquakes

Summary. The statistical capability of the m _b: M _s discriminant for the discrimination of earthquake and explosion populations is examined by application of discriminant functions to a group of 83 explosions and 72 earthquakes in Eurasia. Equations are derived for the probability that an event is an earthquake or an explosion. The positive sign of DIS in the decision index equation, DIS _i = 34.3383 – 11.9569 mb _t + 7.1161 M _si , indicates that the event i is an earthquake. Its negative sign indicates that event i is an explosion. The probability of correct classification for an event, P _i , is related to its DIS _i value, by P _i = [1-exp (DIS _i )]⁻¹, where a large, positive DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an earthquake and a large, negative DIS indicates a high probability that an event is an explosion. The discrimination line M _s = 1.680 m _b– 4.825, or m _b= 0.595 M _s+ 2.872 very successfully separates the explosion population from the earthquake population. The points on this line have an equal chance of being an earthquake or an explosion; moreover, for any event, the distance parallel to the M _s-axis from the point representing that event in the m _b: M _s plane to this line is a measure of the probability for the correct classification of that event.     

Likelihood analysis of earthquake catalogues

We apply several classes of stochastic multidimensional models to statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues using likelihood methods. We investigate the importance of including different earthquake parameters in the model: epicentral coordinates, hypocentral depth, time limits for interearthquake interaction, and especially spatial distribution of earthquakes as well as spatial aftershock patterns. Results of this study combined with other investigations, suggest that most distributions controlling earthquake interaction have a fractal or scale-invariant form. Developed models are used for statistical analysis of several earthquake catalogues to evaluate parameters of earthquake occurrence. These parameters are shown to be similar for shallow earthquakes of different magnitude ranges and seismogenic regions, confirming self-similarity of the earthquake process. Whereas intermediate earthquakes seem to emulate the pattern of shallow earthquake occurrence, albeit at a much smaller aftershock rate, deep earthquakes differ significantly in their properties. Predictability of standard shallow earthquake catalogues has been analysed; we present evidence that for the best available catalogues the predictability is close to 10 bits per earthquake. Several synthetic earthquake catalogues have been created and processed through the likelihood inversion scheme. The results from likelihood analysis of these catalogues confirm our approach.     

Fractal Dimension of the 1999 Chamoli Earthquake from Aftershock Studies in Garhwal Himalaya

The Aftershock sequence of Chamoli earthquake (M _w 6.4) of 29 March 1999 is analyzed to study the fractal structure in space, time and magnitude distribution. The b value is found to be 0.63 less than which is usually observed worldwide and in the Himalayas. This indicates that the numbers of smaller earthquakes are relatively less than the larger ones. The spatial correlation is 1.64, indicating that events are approaching a two-dimensional region meaning that the aftershocks are uniformly distributed along the trend of the aftershock zone. Temporal correlation is 0.86 for aftershocks of M 1, indicating a nearly continuous aftershock activity. However, it is 0.5 for aftershocks of M 1.75, indicating a non continuous aftershock activity. From the assessment of slip on different faults it is inferred that 70% displacement is accommodated on the primary fault and the remainder on secondary faults.