城市地质信息系统建设的目标与解决方案

城市地质信息系统建设的基本功能目标是：支持多源异构地质空间数据的存储、管理、提取、传输与交叉访问,实现地下地质结构与关系的表达、分析和过程的三维可视化,支持政府决策并开展相关领域的信息社会化服务。为此,应当将其纳入“数字国土”和“数字城市”工程的统一规划中去,一方面借鉴地矿点源信息系统的设计思路与方法,研发并建造主题武的“城市国土资源基础数据平台”,以及相关的决策支持系统和服务应用系统;另一方面运用“多S”集成技术、联邦数据库技术、数据仓库技术、三维可视化技术和计算机网络技术,整合各种已有的和新建的多源异构的数据库、图形库、知识库、方法库、模型库和管理系统、决策系统。在具体设计时,可以将客户机／服务器(C／S)结构与浏览器／服务器(B／S)结构结合起来,并按市(局)—县(区、分局)两级联网的构架进行设置。     

基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论在霍尔古吐水电站坝址区泥石流危险性评价中的应用

泥石流危险性评价是灾情预测、防灾救灾决策中的重要内容,是国内外灾害科学研究的热点之一。本文以新疆开都河霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群沟泥石流为研究对象,在对泥石流区域地质环境研究的基础上,选取泥石流规模、爆发频率等8个因素作为评价因子,采用灰色关联度确定评价因子权重,运用可拓理论,通过定性和类比的方法对群发泥石流区域进行危险性评价。将评价结果与刘希林提出的单沟泥石流评价结果比较,清水沟与雪莲沟的可拓法评价危险度等级要高于单沟泥石流评价结果,这一结果和现场调查情况相吻合。因此,基于灰色关联度法的可拓理论对霍尔古吐水电站坝址区群发泥石流危险度评价结果合理可靠,进而为坝区泥石流危险性评估、规划防治提供合理的科学依据。     

Bootstrapping: A Fast Way to Simulate QTz Curves

The aim of this paper is to present a fast method based on bootstrapping, for simulating recoverable reserves for input to financial Monte Carlo simulations. In mining, the three parameters defining recoverable reserves are the cutoff grade, z, the ore tonnage above cutoff, T, and the metal quantity above cutoff, Q. After introducing the concept of 3-dimensional QTz curves, the statistical technique called bootstrapping is reviewed and applied to a set of South African gold grades. As selective mining is carried out on blocks not points, these curves have to be calculated for blocks. The QTz curves obtained by bootstrapping are compared to those obtained by conditionally simulating the same deposit. The procedure has been extended to incorporate geologists' ideas of the likely size of the ore volume. Lastly, the recoverable reserves obtained by bootstrapping are compared with those obtained by traditional risk analysis (base case ± 10% or 20%).     

Wildlife management and land reform in southeastern Zimbabwe: a compatible pairing or a contradiction in terms?

This paper examines the melding of two discourses in southeastern Zimbabwe: land reform and wildlife management. The former seeks to redistribute large, ‘under-utilized’ landholdings to smallholders whilst the latter needs extensive land holdings to be viable. These two discourses are rooted in very different models of development. The land reform exercise emphasizes direct redistribution, equity and land for crops; whilst the wildlife management discourse tends to stress maximizing foreign exchange earnings, encouraging public-private partnerships and trickle down. Yet there has been a recent flurry of interest in the development of ‘wildlife models’ for land reform which would combine the two. This paper investigates whether the competing discourses about land for smallholders and wildlife-based land reform are compatible or can be successfully reconciled. It traces the ways they have come together in Zimbabwe’s southeast lowveld and examines the ‘science’ and politics underlying their melding. Finally it explores the potential implications for rural people’s livelihoods of this development. It concludes that land reform and wildlife management can be reconciled, but probably not in a particularly equitable way: it is more likely to provide an opening for an equitable land reform agenda to be usurped by local and non-local elites with wildlife interests.     

纤维混凝土的低温性能和冻融损伤机理研究

研究了低温环境下(气温变化为-15~5℃),聚丙烯腈(PAN)纤维对混凝土力学性能增长趋势的影响,探讨了快速冻融试验条件下(-17.5~7.5℃)PAN纤维混凝土的抗冻融耐久性,通过扫描电子显微镜(SEM)观察了PAN纤维在混凝土中的分散性以及纤维和混凝土界面结合状况.结果表明:掺入PAN纤维增加了混凝土的含气量、改善了混凝土的微观结构,提高了混凝土抗裂阻力,因而有利于混凝土低温环境下的强度增长和提高了混凝土的抗冻融耐久性.混凝土经受冻融循环破坏实质上是疲劳损伤累积的过程.通过实验研究和理论分析,探讨了聚丙烯腈纤维混凝土冻融疲劳损伤的机理,研究了纤维对混凝土抵抗冻融破坏的影响,建立了聚丙烯腈纤维混凝土冻融损伤的演变方程.     

四川扎如沟旅游资源开发初探

扎如沟是九寨沟的一条支流，位于九寨沟东北角偏北方向，它以其丰富的自然和人文资源，良好的区位优势，成为九寨沟下一步最具有开发价值的区域。详细阐述了扎如沟现有的资源优势，提出了统一规划，分步实施，突出特色，突出主题，实施品牌战略，开发与保护并重的资源开发总体思路，并给出了一系列切实可行的旅游产品设计方案。     

我国西部国土资源及其开发对策

国土资源开发在我国西部地区经济发展中具有重要的地位和作用,但是也受许多因素的制约。西部国土资源开发必须突出重点、科学规划并采取多种优惠扶持政策。     

A land-use-based modelling chain to assess the impacts of Natural Water Retention Measures on Europe’s Green Infrastructure

This article details the process of integrating models to answer a specific policy-driven question: ‘What could be the impact of proposed Natural Water Retention Measures (NWRMs) on Europe’s Green Infrastructure (GI)?’ It describes the new Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP), now enabling a high spatial scale (100-m) and large coverage (pan-European), whereby several sector-specific models contribute to assessing the impact of regional-level policy on a given spatial topic of concern. The configuration (land claims and land allocations modules) and calibration (accessibility and biophysical suitability) of the LUMP are explained. Four NWRM scenarios (riparian areas, afforestation, grassland and baseline scenario) are configured to run the simulations. For the reference: year 2006, the spatial representation of GI is based on land-use features of a refined version of the CORINE Land Cover (CLC), and resumed as connected components made of nodes and links.

Mathematical morphological image processing and network graph theory model, available from the free software package GUIDOS (the Joint Research Center of the European Commission), enabled the measurement of the GI connectivity and identified most critical links. Results show that the competition for land claimed by different economic sectors, combined with policy-driven rule-sets for the implementation of different NWRMs, yields very different results for the 2030 land-use projections, and subsequently for the morphology of GI. Three indicators associated with the morphology of GI are computed in order to assess the model outputs for 2030. The indicators are computed to answer the following questions: (1) How is the quantity of GI affected by each of the NWRM, and what proportion of that GI is most valuable? (2) What is the location of the most critical nodes and connectors of GI, and what land-use conversions occur under these? (3) Are the average components getting larger or smaller?

Whereas the grassland measure results in the largest net increase of GI, the afforestation measure results in the overall largest number of hectares of key nodes and links within the network. Land conversions occur under the critical GI nodes and links, with a large increase in agricultural areas, especially for the riparian measure under critical nodes and the grassland measure under critical links. Also predominant is the swapping of land from pasture to forest under critical links with the afforestation measure. The riparian measure most increases the average size of GI components, and all three measures contribute to bridging two large components which were divided in the 2006 land-use map, thus increasing the size of the largest component by more than 50%.     

基于SWAT模型的汉江流域径流模拟

应用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)分布式水文模型对汉江流域1971-2000年30年逐月径流进行了模拟.结果表明:模型模拟精度高于评价标准(模拟效率Ens>0.5,相关系数r 2>0.6),SWAT模型适用于汉江流域的径流模拟;水量平衡各要素中,30年月、年平均蒸散发量、地表径流量、土壤对地下水补给量、土壤含水变化量、地下水侧流量分别占降水量的55.97%、25.88%、17.64%、0.26%、0.25%,蒸散发是该流域水量的主要输出项;各月30年平均降水量变化趋势与地表径流量变化趋势较一致,而与基流量变化趋势一致性较差;30年流域降水量年变化趋势与地表径流量、基流量的变化趋势较一致;30年月、年地表径流量对降水的响应程度高于基流.     

郸城小麦霜冻的危害及预防措施

根据郸城县1987--2007年小麦霜冻情况，分析了小麦霜冻害的影响因素及对小麦产量的影响；并根据观察和试验结果，提出了小麦霜冻的预测指标和预防、灾后补救措施。