Saving lives in earthquakes: successes and failures in seismic protection since 1960

This paper will look at what we have and have not achieved in reducing the risks to human life from earthquakes in the last 50 years. It will review how success has been achieved in a few parts of the world, and consider what needs to be done by the scientific and engineering community globally to assist in the future task of bringing earthquake risks under control. The first part of the talk will re-examine what we know about the casualties from earthquakes in the last 50 years. Almost 80% of about 1 million deaths turn out to have been caused by just ten great earthquakes, together affecting a tiny proportion of the territory at risk from heavy ground shaking. The disparity between richer and poorer countries is also evident, not only in fatality rates, but also in their rates of change. But the existing casualty database turns out to be a very poor basis for observing such differences, not only because of the small number of lethal events, but also because of the very limited data on causes of death, types and causes of injury. These have been examined in detail in only a few, recent events. All that can be said with certainty is that a few wealthier earthquake-prone countries or regions have made impressive progress in reducing the risk of death from earthquakes, while most of the rest of the world has achieved comparatively little, and in some areas the problem has become much worse. The second part of the paper looks in more detail at what has been achieved country-by-country. Based on a new expert-group survey of key individuals involved in earthquake risk mitigation, it will examine what are perceived to be the successes and failures of risk mitigation in each country or group of countries. This survey will be used to highlight the achievements of those countries which have successfully tackled their earthquake risk; it will examine the processes of earthquake risk mitigation, from campaigning to retrofitting, and it will consider to what extent the achievement is the result of affluence, scientific and technical activity, political advocacy, public awareness, or the experience of destructive events. It will ask to what extent the approaches pioneered by the global leaders can be adopted by the rest. The final section of the talk will argue that it can be useful to view earthquake protection activity as a public health matter to be advanced in a manner similar to globally successful disease-control measures: it will be argued that the key components of such programmes—building in protection; harnessing new technology and creating a safety culture—must be the key components of earthquake protection strategies also. It will consider the contribution which the scientific and engineering community can make to bringing down today’s unacceptably high global earthquake risk. It will be suggested that this role is wider than commonly understood and needs to include: Building-in protection

Natural disasters as the end of the insurance industry? Scalar competitive strategies, Alternative Risk Transfers, and the economic crisis

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has piqued interest in the insurance industry, and this scrutiny has led to assumptions that the industry has become unstable and unprofitable with the increased incidence of disasters in highly-insured regions of the world. This paper challenges that assumption by arguing that the insurance industry has responded by spreading risk through scaled and networked recovery schemes. We found that because of competitive strategies of risk-spreading and displacement arrangements, the industry has actually profited as a whole. Regional insurance companies have always relied on the higher financial scales of the reinsurance industry in Munich, Zurich, and London. But with claims reaching into the billions of dollars, the reinsurance industry itself has raised premiums, spread risk farther afield, and jumped scale by spreading risk to futures markets called Alternative Risk Transfers (ARTs). However, the recession beginning in 2008 has called into question the viability of using futures markets as insurance. It is shown through a media analysis of four major business publications (The Economist, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal) how the industry responded to the costs of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 hurricane seasons. Because geography is rather new to this literature, this paper also offers a broad review of the insurance industry.     

Paper trails: The Outdoor Recreation Resource Review Commission and the rationalization of recreational resources

This article examines the history of the Outdoor Recreation Resource Review Commission (ORRRC) in the United States between 1955 and 1963 and efforts to make recreational resources legible for federal governance. By drawing on insights from Critical Resource Geography, I highlight the ways that the ORRRC systematically accounted for and categorized recreational resources, creating a “patchwork landscape” that zoned outdoor recreational resources and promoted efficient use and rational resource conservation. I argue that these efforts required a negotiation between abstraction and an awareness of the situated nature of recreational landscapes.     

浅谈石油钻井节能减排的途径与对策

石油天然气钻井肩负着油气资源勘探开发的国家使命和社会责任,同时又是能耗大户,节能潜力和责任很大。企业的科学发展当责无旁贷的把节能减排看作转变经济发展方式、节能挖潜、降本增效的重要抓手。只有坚持低碳生产,坚持节约发展、清洁发展、安全发展,才能实现企业又好又快地发展。     

水平长导线源瞬变电磁三维积分方程模拟

以体积分方程法模拟三维电磁正演问题的原理为基础,利用数值滤波方法实现了时间域水平长导线源的瞬变电磁三维问题的模拟,对电阻率、极化率、时间常数和频率相关系数的变化分别进行了三维数值模拟。为了提高计算的精度,变换过程中采用双精度数值滤波方法。利用偶极源的解析解和数值解的对比来检验数值滤波方法的可靠性。数值模拟结果表明,此种数值滤波方法精度高,结果稳定。高精度数值滤波结果为瞬变电磁法在石油、矿产、地热以及其他方面的应用提供了理论指导。     

输变电设施电磁辐射环境影响评价方法探讨

结合输变电设施周围电磁环境特点,对其电磁辐射环境影响评价方法进行探讨,提出相应的电磁辐射污染防治措施与建议,消除公众疑虑。在此基础上,总结当前电磁辐射环评工作中存在的问题,以期为后续同类问题深入研究提供思路。     

模糊综合评判在大水箐泥石流危险度评价中的应用

介绍了宾川县大水箐泥石流灾害的发育特征。选用了7个评价因子对大水箐泥石流危险度进行模糊综合评价,并在求解权重和隶属度中引入了灰色关联法和半梯形分布模型。结果表明,改进后的模糊综合评判法是正确可行的。     

中原油田高压注水诱发的油水井套管损坏原因分析

中原油田高压注水开发35年,套管损坏严重,严重的影响了油田的开发效果。据研究,油田水井套管损坏主要有错断、变形及破漏等三类,平面上主要分布在断层发育区、高地层水矿化度区、泥岩层和盐膏层发育区,剖面上主要分布在盐膏层段和主力生产井段。提出断层活动、地应力非均质演化、盐岩蠕变、油田开发历程和开采方式及油气流场、化学场演化是中原油田套损的主要控制因素,建立油田油藏油井多参数动态模式,优选与油藏模式匹配的开采方式及增产措施,改造套管动力学环境和化学环境将能防治套损地质灾害的发生。     

废弃矿山生态恢复工程地质灾害危险性评估方法探讨

废弃矿山一般地处地质环境较复杂的山区,人类工程活动强烈,加之废弃矿山植被恢复工程的特殊性,与常规建设工程的地质灾害危险性评估相比,其工作方法和内容等都具有明显的区别。本文以北京市房山区霞云岭乡废弃矿山地质灾害危险性评估为实例,着重探讨了此项评估技术的基本思路、方法和技术手段等内容,以期为类似工程地质灾害危险性评估工作提供参考。     

海岸带城市地下水分布特征

我国城市海岸带地下水类型和分布主要受控于陆地地质作用,尤以大地构造作用和河流地质作用为主导。松散沉积物类海岸带地下水为孔隙水,含水介质单一,空间变化大,地下水的赋存和分布规律亦相应复杂。以距今78万年晚更新世为界线,可将第四纪松散沉积物含水层组划分为上（浅）下（深）两层（部）。下部的全新统（Q4）和上更新统（Q3）含水岩组以微咸水、咸水多见;上部的中更新统（Q2）和下更新统（Q1）分布有淡水,部分地下淡水资源有一定的供水意义。基岩类海岸带地下水主要为裂隙水和岩溶水,多为淡水,其水资源量与当地的降水量和基岩入渗系数的大小有直接关系。除砂砾石台地的基岩类海岸带、少数溺谷型泥质海岸带的河谷内和碳酸盐岩分布区外,一般无集中供水意义。