The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.     

历次核试验进入海洋的~(137)Cs对中国近海影响的模拟研究

1945年以来,世界各主要核国家进行了数千次核试验,这些核试验产生的绝大部分放射性物质通过多种途径进入海洋,对海洋环境造成放射性污染。本文建立了一个准全球海洋的放射性物质输运和扩散数值模式,通过数值模拟手段评估了历史核试验释放的放射性物质137 Cs对中国近海海洋环境的影响。本文借助前人工作评估了核试验释放137Cs进入海洋的途径和总量;通过比较模拟结果与观测资料,表明本文建立的放射性物质模式能够较好地模拟出137Cs在中国近海及其邻近海域的分布情况和随时间演变特征;模拟结果表明中国近海里的137Cs浓度在20世纪50年代中期达到最大,其中吕宋海峡海域137Cs浓度最高,达80.99Bq/m3;进一步分析了2011年3月份日本福岛核事故前中国近海137Cs浓度分布状况,2011年整个中国近海137Cs浓度介于1.0~1.6Bq/m3间,且其浓度垂向分布较均匀,相对封闭的南海浓度略高于其他海域。     

Oil migration driven by exhumation of the Canol Formation oil shale: A new conceptual model for the Norman Wells oil field,northwestern Canada

Thermal history, petroleum system, structural, and tectonic constraints are reviewed and integrated in order to derive a new conceptual model for the Norman Wells oil field, and a new play type for tectonically active foreland regions. The thermal history recorded by Devonian rocks suggests that source rocks experienced peak thermal conditions in the Triassic–Jurassic, during which time oil was likely generated. After initial oil generation and expulsion, the Canol Formation oil shale retained a certain fraction of hydrocarbons. The shallow reservoir (650–350 m) is a Devonian carbonate bank overlain by the Canol Formation and resides within a hanging wall block of the Norman Range thrust fault. Both reservoir and source rocks are naturally fractured and have produced high API non-biodegraded oil. Thrust faults in the region formed after the Paleocene, and a structural cross-section of the field shows that the source and reservoir rocks at Norman Wells have been exhumed by over 1 km since then.The key proposition of the exhumation model is that as Canol Formation rocks underwent thrust-driven exhumation, they crossed a ductile–brittle transition zone and dip-oriented fractures formed sympathetic to the thrust fault. The combination of pore overpressure and new dip-directed subvertical fractures liberated oil from the Canol Formation and allowed for up-dip oil migration. Reservoir rocks were similarly fractured and improved permeability enhanced charging and pooling of oil. GPS and seismicity data indicate that strain transfer across the northern Cordillera is a response to accretion of the Yakutat terrane along the northern Pacific margin of North America, which is also the probable driving force for foreland shortening and rock exhumation at Norman Wells.     

曹县梁堤头地区第四系地裂缝成因及防治

鲁豫交界的曹县黄河故道地区,地势较高的自然堤堤缘区是地裂缝等地质灾害的高发区。地裂缝主要由地表厚粘土层干湿胀缩产生,有一定的隐蔽性,并受地形和大气影响。地下水动态变化对地裂缝影响不大。地表裂隙张力的直接作用、建筑物的非均质土地基不均匀沉陷等因素的存在共同导致了该区民房开裂。可以采取加固地基和搬迁避让等方法进行防治。     

Natural disasters as the end of the insurance industry? Scalar competitive strategies, Alternative Risk Transfers, and the economic crisis

The aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has piqued interest in the insurance industry, and this scrutiny has led to assumptions that the industry has become unstable and unprofitable with the increased incidence of disasters in highly-insured regions of the world. This paper challenges that assumption by arguing that the insurance industry has responded by spreading risk through scaled and networked recovery schemes. We found that because of competitive strategies of risk-spreading and displacement arrangements, the industry has actually profited as a whole. Regional insurance companies have always relied on the higher financial scales of the reinsurance industry in Munich, Zurich, and London. But with claims reaching into the billions of dollars, the reinsurance industry itself has raised premiums, spread risk farther afield, and jumped scale by spreading risk to futures markets called Alternative Risk Transfers (ARTs). However, the recession beginning in 2008 has called into question the viability of using futures markets as insurance. It is shown through a media analysis of four major business publications (The Economist, The New York Times, The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal) how the industry responded to the costs of the 2004, 2005, and 2006 hurricane seasons. Because geography is rather new to this literature, this paper also offers a broad review of the insurance industry.     

Paper trails: The Outdoor Recreation Resource Review Commission and the rationalization of recreational resources

This article examines the history of the Outdoor Recreation Resource Review Commission (ORRRC) in the United States between 1955 and 1963 and efforts to make recreational resources legible for federal governance. By drawing on insights from Critical Resource Geography, I highlight the ways that the ORRRC systematically accounted for and categorized recreational resources, creating a “patchwork landscape” that zoned outdoor recreational resources and promoted efficient use and rational resource conservation. I argue that these efforts required a negotiation between abstraction and an awareness of the situated nature of recreational landscapes.     

云南东川新山含金剪切带型金矿

新山金矿属构造剪切带控制的典型金矿床,产于中元古界昆阳群美党组(Pt2m)中部变质石英砂板岩中。规模大、品位富、易采易选。矿区构造——含金剪切带与土壤地球化学金异常,是寻找该类金矿的重要标志。     

Socio-economic drivers of deforestation in Roghani Valley,Hindu-Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan

Deforestation and associated ecological disturbances are the issues of global concern.Researchers have investigated a number of driving forces which accelerate the rate of deforestation at local and regional levels.These include poverty,population growth,market demand and prices,political instability,agricultural expansion and changes in property right and ownership regimes.This paper seeks to explore the impacts of population growth,changing tenure system and other socioeconomic factors on the forest cover of Roghani Valley,located in Hindu Raj Mountains,Northern Pakistan.The present study is mainly based on information collected through participatory observation,selfadministered interviews and questionnaire survey.Geographical Information System（GIS） database is also used for mapping and quantification.The results reveal that in the past three to four decades the study area has been subjected to severe deforestation and about half of the forest area has been converted into barren land.Thus,the area under natural forests decreased from 2099 to 1444 hectares in four decades.This large-scale deforestation is attributed to both proximate and under lying causes particularly traditional land tenure system and demographic development.Consequently,forest resources have been degraded and a number of plant species have disappeared from the forests of the study area while several others are in the process of disappearance.     

迁徙季节水鸟对滨海不同类型湿地的利用——以广西山口红树林自然保护区为例

为了解迁徙季节水鸟在不同滨海湿地中的结构组成和行为特征,于2010年3月、4月、9月、11月和2011年3月,在山口自然保护区及其周边地区对不同滨海湿地类型的水鸟展开调查。结果显示:迁徙季节天然湿地共记录到水鸟6目8科39种,人工湿地有6目9科50种。天然湿地比人工湿地的物种数少,整体数量上,春季人工湿地大于天然湿地,秋季则为天然湿地水鸟数量更多。鹬鸻类在不同滨海湿地类型中觅食行为比例差异显著,在天然湿地中觅食比例达到76.67%,而在人工湿地中则以休息和睡眠等非觅食行为为主。天然湿地是鹬鸻类的重要觅食地,而人工湿地则是鹭类和鹬鸻类的主要休息地。鹭类在两种滨海湿地类型中觅食个体的数量不随潮汐的涨落而相应增减。鹬鸻类随潮汐高度上升,在两种滨海湿地类型中觅食的个体数量减少。山口地区的滨海人工湿地是水鸟在高潮期间天然湿地良好的替代栖息地。     

自然泥石流与矿渣泥石流复合效应与防治对策

石棉县后沟是一条典型的自然泥石流和矿渣泥石流并存的泥石流沟。本文以石棉后沟为例,结合早期自然泥石流、矿产开采以来矿渣泥石流、以及2013年7 4复合型泥石流,总结了自然泥石流和矿渣泥石流的复合效应,包括泥石流物源补给的多元效应、泥石流发展演化的逆转效应、泥石流起动发生的复杂效应、泥石流动力沿程的放大效应、泥石流致灾破坏的链式效应。对照泥石流对已建防治工程的破坏,提出了自然泥石流和矿渣泥石流复合型泥石流沟防治对策,建议充分利用起动位置和物源集中补给位置的差异,加强对中上游及支沟自然泥石流起动和运动的拦挡防治,最大限度减小自然泥石流对下游矿渣防护工程的基底侵蚀和冲击破坏,从而保障综合防治工程的有效性。