Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

Holocene development and anthropogenic disturbance of a shallow lake system in Central Ireland recorded by diatoms

Three cores from two connected lakes in Central Ireland (Lough Kinale and Derragh Lough) were investigated using diatom analysis to establish the Holocene development of the lacustrine system, any local variations within the lakes and any anthropogenic influences. The study area was situated in a lowland location and the lakes were shallow, unstratified and interconnected. Litho-and bio-stratigraphical analyses of the lake cores and deposits beneath a mire separating the two lakes showed the changing spatial configuration of the lake system in the early Holocene and the separation of the initial lake into three basins (cf. lacustrine cells) and finally into two interlinked lakes. The evolution of the lake system is conceptualised as the development of distinct lacustrine cells, and its sediments have recorded changes in the physical (geography, depth and sedimentation) and chemical (water chemistry) properties of the lakes inferred through diatom analyses. The longest sequence, from the early Holocene, records fluctuating lake levels and these are correlated with geomorphological mapping and surveying of palaeoshorelines. The diatom assemblages of the upper 2 m of the three cores, covering approximately the last 2000–3000 radiocarbon years show considerable difference in trophic status and life-form categories. This is related to the location of the cores in the lake and also the distance from human settlement with particular reference to proximity to crannog (artificial island) construction and use. The most central core from the deepest part of Lough Kinale has the least representation of the human settlement and agricultural activity in the catchment and on the fringes of the lake, whereas the core taken from the edge of a crannog is able to identify when construction and use of the crannog occurred. The local nature of the palaeoecological response to human activity due to incomplete water mixing has the advantage of allowing the lake sediment cores to be used to determine spatially discrete settlement patterns.     

瑞利散射激光雷达探测平流层和中间层低层大气温度

介绍了一台瑞利散射激光雷达,它能够探测22～60 km范围内大气温度的垂直分布;比较了两种反演温度的数据处理方法.该激光雷达分别与UARS/HALOE卫星和无线电探空仪观测结果进行了对比,均表现了较好的一致性.同时还模拟分析了平流层低层气溶胶对计算温度的影响.     

90年代长江中游异常多雨的气候变化背景分析

利用小波变换技术, 对与长江中游地区夏季降水密切相关的赤道东太平洋海温、西太平洋副高、南海夏季风等物理因子进行时间变化的尺度分离.通过对年代际变化和长期趋势等不同尺度变化的分析, 揭示出90年代长江中游异常多雨和频繁洪涝产生的气候变化背景.     

圆弧形凹陷地形表面覆盖层对入射平面SV波的影响

利用Fourier Bessel级数展开法，给出了表面具有覆盖层的圆弧形凹陷地形对入射平面SV波散射问题的一个解析解，并利用该解分析了不同深宽比凹陷地形表面覆盖层刚度和厚度对入射SV波的影响．结果表明，凹陷地形表面覆盖层的存在，即使厚度很薄，也会显著增加对入射SV波的放大作用，该放大作用可达到单一凹陷地形的2.5倍以上．覆盖层刚度和厚度的变化对入射平面SV波也具有很大影响．      

多层电流片中双撕裂模耦合的压强效应

应用边界层理论研究了等离子体压强对多层电流片中m≥2的双撕裂模耦合的线性和非线性发展行为的影响.考虑等离子体的压强效应，在一阶近似下，解析求得了环位形中双撕裂模的外区匹配参数Δ′.结果表明，当等离子体β<<1时，等离子体压强对双撕裂模的两有理面模之间通过撕裂模外区发生耦合作用的线性行为没有定性影响.虽然等离子体压强将影响双撕裂模耦合的非线性行为，但是主要表现在对其单模项的影响，而对由于两有理面模之间的耦合作用产生的耦合项的影响却很小.     

Water resources optimization and eco-environmental protection in Qaidam Basin

In order to realize sustainable development of the arid area of Northwest China, rational water resources exploitation and optimization are primary prerequisites. Based on the essential principle of sustainable development, this paper puts forward a general idea on water resources optimization and eco-environmental protection in Qaidam Basin, and identifies the competitive multiple targets of water resources optimization. By some qualitative methods such as Input-output Model & AHP Model and some quantitative methods such as System Dynamics Model & Produce Function Model, some standard plans of water resources optimization come into being. According to the Multiple Targets Decision by the Closest Value Model, the best plan of water resources optimization, eco-environmental protection and sustainable development in Qaidam Basin is finally decided.