河北邯郸056038,河北邯郸056038,河北邯郸056038绿化现

钅?20051010-4)0安徽农业科学Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences93+148TU985C038;D049;3;34;C;D;D049_34;C038_3;杨凤云;2911+2966不同来源大白猪生长曲线的比较研究肖炜;云鹏;李光兵;黄国英;路永强;王楚端;北京市畜牧兽医总站,北京市畜牧兽医总站,北京华都种猪繁育公司,北京华都种猪繁育公司,北京市畜牧兽医总站,中国农业大学动物科技学院 北京100107,北京100107,北京101407,北京101407,北京100107,北京100094猪;;生长规律;;生长曲线;;背膘厚对70~190日龄的32头英国大白猪1、7头法国大白猪和11头美国大白猪,每隔15 d测定体重和背膘厚,分析其生长发育规律。结果表明:Logistic、Bertanlanffy和Gompertz模型均可较好拟合3个品系大白猪在生长肥育期的生长曲线(p<0.000 1),但Logistic模型更加适合这3个品系大白猪;英国、法国和美国大白猪生长肥育猪分别在125日龄(体重为71.40 kg)1、43日龄(体重为84.25 kg)1、37日龄(体重为86.85 kg)时,日增重最大,分别为0.860 4、0.897 3和1.063 9 kg/d。英国大白猪、法国大白猪体重达120 kg左右时的背膘厚分别为11.751、6.87 mm,小于William认为的具有良好繁殖性能的22 mm。北京市科技计划     

塔里木盆地轮南低凸起:一个复式油气聚集区

轮南低凸起是塔里木盆地塔北隆起上的一个次级构造单元,多年的勘探开发实践表明,该地区具有多个产层、多种油气藏类型和多期油气充注的特点;多种类型的油气藏,垂向上复合叠置,横向上连片成带,共同构成了一个典型的复式油气聚集区。渤海湾盆地油气勘探和研究的实践中总结出来的复式油气聚集区的理论,已经成功地指导了我国东部和南方含油气盆地的勘探,轮南复式油气聚集区的认识,表明该理论在我国西部挤压型含油气盆地也有广泛的应用和发展前景     

赣中南产铀钨系列花岗岩岩石化学数值多元判别及地质效果

由于赣中南及邻区地壳初始物质应分的不均匀性而导致的地壳重熔型花岗岩岩石化学成分和成矿元素的差异,以及U、W-Sn、TR、Nb-Ta等与壳型花岗岩有关的成矿元素地球化学性质的差异,决定了这些元素的不共生性,而各自有其成矿专属岩体。按成矿专属性可将本区燕山期花岗岩划分为产U系列花岗岩和产TR、W-Sn、Nb-Ta系列花岗岩。二系列岩体的岩石化学成分和副矿物组合有明显的差别。据此建立的岩石化学数值多元线性判别函数式能判别二系列岩体;对产W-Sn、TR、Nb-Ta系列岩体能进行二级判别,同时能判别壳源型花岗质侵出岩的产矿性,以及区分加里东期交代花岗岩及混熔过渡型Cu花岗若。     

Efficient system reliability analysis illustrated for a retaining wall and a soil slope

Although first-order reliability method is a common procedure for estimating failure probability, the formulas derived for bimodal bounds of system failure probability have not been widely used as expected in present reliability analyses. The reluctance for applying these formulas in practice may be partly due to the impression that the procedures to implement the system reliability theory are tedious. Among the methods for system reliability analysis, the approach suggested in Ditlevsen 1979 is considered here because it is a natural extension of the first-order reliability method commonly used for failure probability estimation corresponding to a single failure mode, and it can often provide reasonably narrow failure probability bounds. To facilitate wider practical application, this paper provides a short program code in the ubiquitous Excel spreadsheet platform for efficiently calculating the bounds for system failure probability. The procedure is illustrated for a semi-gravity retaining wall with two failure modes, a soil slope with two and eight failure modes, and a loaded beam with three failure modes. In addition, simple equations are provided to relate the correlated but unrotated equivalent standard normals of the Low and Tang 2007 FORM procedure with the uncorrelated but rotated equivalent standard normals of the classical FORM procedure. Also demonstrated are the need for investigating different permutations of failure modes in order to get the narrowest bounds for system failure probability, and the use of SORM reliability index for system reliability bounds in a case where the curvature of the limit state surface cannot be neglected.     

西北太平洋台风群发事件年代际变化特征分析

利用台风最佳路径资料和全球再分析数据集分析了1979—2018年6—10月西北太平洋地区台风群发事件的统计特征。期间所有台风个例根据群发性质被分为三类：第一类为单独生成的非群发台风；第二类为群发事件中生成，但事件中仅有2个台风成员的"MTC2"台风；第三类为群发事件中生成，且事件中有3个或3个以上台风成员的"MTC3"台风。结果表明，相对于MTC2台风，MTC3台风生成时位置偏北，环境场季风槽辐合更强、高温海区范围更大、中低层大气更湿润。而MTC3台风在1990s末的突变减少导致了西太台风群发事件和台风总数减少。1996年之后，尽管洋面上空仍有较多的热带涡旋扰动，但群发台风活跃的大部分地区垂直风切变增强、高空辐散和季风槽辐合减弱以及西太平洋热带季节内振荡事件（Madden-Julian Oscillation，MJO）的对流活跃位相维持日数减少，它们共同导致了MTC3事件的年代际变化。     

多次取样的网格化暴雨预报“配料法”研究

利用2008—2019年甘肃省陇东342个测站的逐日降水资料和ECMWF_ERA5再分析资料，总结了不同暴雨天气过程的环流特征，建立了精细至模式预报每个格点、综合考虑暴雨日每个预报时次的多次取样网格化暴雨预报“配料法”方案，并通过2020年5次暴雨过程进行验证。结果表明，陇东暴雨可分为副高扰动型、冷槽切变型和偏北气流对流型；由于不同类型暴雨的环流特征差异明显，降水范围及持续时间不同，具有代表意义的关键物理量及阈值也不相同；网格化配料法的过程预报准确率相比ECMWF_THIN提高了20%，站点预报准确率提高了7.8%，性能优于ECMWF_THIN模式的暴雨预报；配料法对小区域预报效果优秀，预报范围越大预报准确率越低。     

Data augmentation for bias correction in mapping PM2.5 based on satellite retrievals and ground observations

As most air quality monitoring sites are in urban areas worldwide, machine learning models may produce substantial estimation bias in rural areas when deriving spatiotemporal distributions of air pollutants. The bias stems from the issue of dataset shift, as the density distributions of predictor variables differ greatly between urban and rural areas. We propose a data-augmentation approach based on the multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE-DA) to remedy the dataset shift problem. Compared with the benchmark models, MICE-DA exhibits superior predictive performance in deriving the spatiotemporal distributions of hourly PM_2.5 in the megacity (Chengdu) at the foot of the Tibetan Plateau, especially for correcting the estimation bias, with the mean bias decreasing from –3.4 µg/m³ to –1.6 µg/m³. As a complement to the holdout validation, the semi-variance results show that MICE-DA decently preserves the spatial autocorrelation pattern of PM_2.5 over the study area. The essence of MICE-DA is strengthening the correlation between PM_2.5 and aerosol optical depth (AOD) during the data augmentation. Consequently, the importance of AOD is largely enhanced for predicting PM_2.5, and the summed relative importance value of the two satellite-retrieved AOD variables increases from 5.5% to 18.4%. This study resolved the puzzle that AOD exhibited relatively lower importance in local or regional studies. The results of this study can advance the utilization of satellite remote sensing in modeling air quality while drawing more attention to the common dataset shift problem in data-driven environmental research.     

物化探异常对坡仔营地区钼矿分布特征的指示

坡仔营地区钼矿床是根据1∶5万水系沉积物测量在坡仔营地区圈出的W、Mo元素综合异常,展开1∶5万高磁测量,成果显示：在坡仔营地区Mo元素存在一个近椭圆形异常,面积约2.5 km2,浓集中心明显,具浓度分带,与其重叠的有W元素异常。在浓集中心的岩体中找到了斑岩型钼矿床。在外围岩体也发现较好的的矿体化。通过物探异常、化探异常以及地质特征推测存在隐伏矿体,具有进一步寻找矿床潜力。