Uncertainty assessment for watershed water quality modeling: A Probabilistic Collocation Method based approach

Watershed water quality models are increasingly used in management. However, simulations by such complex models often involve significant uncertainty, especially those for non-conventional pollutants which are often poorly monitored. This study first proposed an integrated framework for watershed water quality modeling. Within this framework, Probabilistic Collocation Method (PCM) was then applied to a WARMF model of diazinon pollution to assess the modeling uncertainty. Based on PCM, a global sensitivity analysis method named PCM-VD (VD stands for variance decomposition) was also developed, which quantifies variance contribution of all uncertain parameters. The study results validated the applicability of PCM and PCM-VD to the WARMF model. The PCM-based approach is much more efficient, regarding computational time, than conventional Monte Carlo methods. It has also been demonstrated that analysis using the PCM-based approach could provide insights into data collection, model structure improvement and management practices. It was concluded that the PCM-based approach could play an important role in watershed water quality modeling, as an alternative to conventional Monte Carlo methods to account for parametric uncertainty and uncertainty propagation.     

Geostatistical Simulation of Regionalized Pore-Size Distributions Using Min/Max Autocorrelation Factors

In many fields of the Earth Sciences, one is interested in the distribution of particle or void sizes within samples. Like many other geological attributes, size distributions exhibit spatial variability, and it is convenient to view them within a geostatistical framework, as regionalized functions or curves. Since they rarely conform to simple parametric models, size distributions are best characterized using their raw spectrum as determined experimentally in the form of a series of abundance measures corresponding to a series of discrete size classes. However, the number of classes may be large and the class abundances may be highly cross-correlated. In order to model the spatial variations of discretized size distributions using current geostatistical simulation methods, it is necessary to reduce the number of variables considered and to render them uncorrelated among one another. This is achieved using a principal components-based approach known as Min/Max Autocorrelation Factors (MAF). For a two-structure linear model of coregionalization, the approach has the attractive feature of producing orthogonal factors ranked in order of increasing spatial correlation. Factors consisting largely of noise and exhibiting pure nugget–effect correlation structures are isolated in the lower rankings, and these need not be simulated. The factors to be simulated are those capturing most of the spatial correlation in the data, and they are isolated in the highest rankings. Following a review of MAF theory, the approach is applied to the modeling of pore-size distributions in partially welded tuff. Results of the case study confirm the usefulness of the MAF approach for the simulation of large numbers of coregionalized variables.     

General elastic analysis of piles and pile groups

This paper describes the development of a boundary element analysis for the behaviour of single piles and pile groups subjected to general three‐dimensional loading and to vertical and lateral ground movements. Each pile is discretized into a series of cylindrical elements, each of which is divided into several sub‐elements. Compatibility of vertical, lateral and rotational movements is imposed in order to obtain the necessary equations for the pile response. Via hierarchical structures, 12 non‐zero sub‐matrices in a global matrix are derived for the basic influence factors. Solutions are presented for a series of cases involving single piles and pile groups. In each case, the solutions are compared with those from more simplified existing pile analyses such as those developed by Randolph and by Poulos. It is shown that for direct loading effects (e.g. the settlement of piles due to vertical loading), the simplified analyses work well. However, for ‘off‐line’ response (such as the lateral movement due to vertical loading) the differences are greater, and it is believed that the present analysis gives more reliable estimates. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximate incremental dynamic analysis using the modal pushover analysis procedure

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA)—a procedure developed for accurate estimation of seismic demand and capacity of structures—requires non‐linear response history analysis of the structure for an ensemble of ground motions, each scaled to many intensity levels, selected to cover the entire range of structural response—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability. Recognizing that IDA of practical structures is computationally extremely demanding, an approximate procedure based on the modal pushover analysis procedure is developed. Presented are the IDA curves and limit state capacities for the SAC‐Los Angeles 3‐, 9‐, and 20‐storey buildings computed by the exact and approximate procedures for an ensemble of 20 ground motions. These results demonstrate that the MPA‐based approximate procedure reduces the computational effort by a factor of 30 (for the 9‐storey building), at the same time providing results to a useful degree of accuracy over the entire range of responses—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability—provided a proper hysteretic model is selected for modal SDF systems. The accuracy of the approximate procedure does not deteriorate for 9‐ and 20‐storey buildings, although their dynamics is more complex, involving several ‘modes’ of vibration. For all three buildings, the accuracy of the MPA‐based approximate procedure is also satisfactory for estimating the structural capacities for the limit states of immediate occupancy, collapse prevention, and global dynamic instability. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

第五代PSU/NCAR中尺度模式(MM5)介绍Ⅲ:客观分析(RAWINS模块)

通过对RAWINS模块的基本原理、主要功能和结构的介绍 ,对模块的主要控制参数、操作使用方法等做了较为详尽的说明和讨论     

Tests for individual Sulfate－Containing Particles in Urban Atmosphere in Beijing

Thin film methods and X ray energy dispersive technique were applied to analyze sulfate-containing particles in Beijing in order to examine their features and sources. Atmospheric aerosol particles were collected on electron mi-croscope meshes according to two size ranges: coarse particles (r>0.5μm) and fine particles (0.5μm≥r≥0.1μm) by using a two-stage impactor. It was found fiat more than seventy percent of the fine particles and about twenty percent of the coarse particles were sulfate-containing particles. These particles were formed mainly through heterogeneous nucleation. The element composition analyses revealed that the atmospheric aerosol particles in Beijing were domi-nated by crustal particles and construction dust.     

Morphology of riffle–pool sequences in the River Severn,England

Despite the occurrence of riffle–pool sequences in many rivers there are few data concerning riffle–pool unit morphology. Of many criteria proposed to identify riffle–pool units, only three methods can be regarded as objective and robust. These are the ‘zero‐crossing’, the ‘spectral analysis’ and the ‘control‐point’ methods. In this paper statistics are developed using the first two of these methods to describe the streamwise morphology of 275 riffles and 285 pools which form a continuous 32·1 km reach of the bed of the River Severn in Shropshire, England. Yalin's theoretical relationship between the average riffle:pool unit length ( λ _p) and channel width ( W ), λ _p = 3 W , applies to the River Severn. Reach‐average riffle height ( H ) is a constant proportion of bankfull depth ( h ); typically H ≅ 0·16 h . Riffle height is a positive function of riffle length. Pool depth is a positive function of pool length. However, both riffle length and pool length increase more rapidly than the bed‐level amplitude, such that long riffles or pools are relatively ‘flat’. As channel gradient reduces, bedforms flatten and become more asymmetric as riffle stoss sides and the proximal slope of pools lengthen at the expense of riffle lee sides and pool distal slopes. The statistical relationships between riffle steepness (H/L) and water depth are similar to those for equilibrium subaqueous dunes. The Severn data are consistent with Yalin's theoretical analysis relating riffle bedform length (L _r) to water depth, i.e. L _r = α2π h, wherein α ≅ 1 for steep near‐equilibrium bedforms but α ≅ 2 to 3 as the relative depth decreases and riffles become long, low features. Theoretical consideration and turbulence data indicate that the frequency of coherent turbulent‐flow structures associated with the riffle–pool mixing length in the Severn should be of the order of 50 to 100 s. The morphological similarity of the steepest River Severn riffles with dunes raises intriguing questions with respect to self‐similar, convergent organization of periodic alluvial bedforms and to bedform dynamic classification particularly. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国省会城市国际化水平比较研究

城市国际化不仅是一个结果更是一个与其他国际城市逐步接轨的过程,在此过程中,通过与其他城市的物质、文化与信息的交流,实现城市发展利益的最大化。在目前城市国际化比较研究的基础上,针对现有方法的不足,运用因子分析法,进行了分因素排名比较分析和综合得分排名的分类比较分析,最后根据综合得分通过类间距法将所有省会城市分为三类,并提出各类城市在不同城市国际化发展阶段应选择不同的发展策略。     

渤海湾天津近岸海域水环境空间变异分析

由于海岸带的地理条件和海洋动力特性的复杂性以及人类开发活动对海岸带的影响,近岸海域的生态环境系统在空间分布上有很大的变异性.基于现场实测资料,建立系统的空间变异分析模型,对海岸带生态环境空间变化规律进行分析,可以充分了解不同区域的污染特征和变化趋势.应用所构建的空间变异分析模型对渤海湾天津近岸海域的水环境特性进行分析,结合对应年份的入海流量及其变化,分析了天津渤海湾海岸带污染的主因子和区域水环境的分布特征,结果可以对海洋功能区的划分和水环境综合评价结果进行验证和补充.     

浅埋隧道塌方地质灾害成因及风险控制

塌方是浅埋隧道施工过程中的主要地质灾害之一,利用风险动态评估模型及风险规避方法进行实时控制是确保隧道施工安全的有效途径。首先,采用洞内外相结合的地质调查方法,分析隧址区地质特征及塌方灾害风险诱因,并建立浅埋隧道塌方风险模糊层次评价模型,进行基于孕险环境的静态风险评估;其次,根据隧道施工过程中揭露的动态信息,对孕险环境进行动态修正,并汲取大气降水、开挖支护措施及监控量测等施工信息,进行隧道施工过程中的动态风险评估;最后,基于动态评估结果提出了风险规避方法,通过对施工方案的审核和优化,达到逐渐降低隧道施工风险、规避地质灾害的目的。该方法成功应用于宜巴高速公路段家屋隧道施工过程中,有效地规避了塌方地质灾害的发生,可为同类工程所借鉴。