案例推理的地学应用背景和方法

案例推理 (CBR)研究 ,是人类认知的一种合理性模型 ,接近于人类认识、解决问题最原始的思维方式 ,具有在无法获取机理模型、确定规则或统计模型时 ,采用简单的历史相似性推理实现问题的定量求解和预测 ,成为人工智能领域近年来的研究热点。     

概论机场能见度的准确预报

通过对影响能见度的因素的分析，提出了一种能见度预报方法－综合分析法，极大地提高了能见度的预报准确率。     

Discrimination of sedimentary facies by association analysis

The ability of association analysis to discriminate sedimentary facies was tested on Purdy's modal analyses of modern sediments of the Great Bahama Bank. Purdy's data set has served in the past as a standard reference for evaluating various multivariate classification algorithms. In order to adapt Purdy's data to association analysis, the percent abundance of the 12 constituents was converted to binary form by dichotomizing each variable on its mean value. The results obtained by association analysis are virtually identical to those obtained by Purdy and other authors. The same four main sedimentary facies were discriminated; 86% of the samples were identically classified (97% when misclassified borderline cases are counted as matches); the total partition variance of the classification is only negligibly greater (4%); and the grouping of the variables yielded the same four groups. The rank order of the three division-attributes responsible for the sample classification is fines, oolites, and corals. Association analysis has been employed by other authors to differentiate meaningful facies groups in studies of ancient reef carbonates, modern reef sediments, and heavy minerals in stream sediments. In all these studies, the results were found to be compatible with those obtained by using the continuous quantitative measurements, indicating that qualitative binary data may often be sufficient for the purpose of facies discrimination in many branches of geology and that association analysis is an effective method for this purpose.     

变形分析的Bayes估计与检验

由于观测条件的变化，观测值方差将产生随机波动。本文根据Ｂａｙｅｓ估计理论，推导了线性模型待估参数的分布函数及观测值方差估计公式，并将其用于位移检验。计算结果表明，在同样的置信度下，本方法更符合实际。文中还对参数估值的统计性质进行了讨论。     

Exposure dating and reinterpretation of coarse debris accumulations (‘rock glaciers’) in the Cairngorm Mountains,Scotland

Relict rock glaciers have considerable potential for contributing to palaeoclimatic reconstruction, but this potential is often undermined by lack of dating control and problems of interpretation. Here we reinvestigate and date four proposed ‘rock glaciers’ in the Cairngorm Mountains and show that the morphology of only one of these appears consistent with that of a true rock glacier produced by creep of underlying ice or ice‐rich sediment. All four features comprise rockslide or rock avalanche runout debris, and the possibility that all four represent unmodified runout accumulations cannot be discounted. Surface exposure dating of the four debris accumulations using cosmogenic ¹⁰Be produced uncertainty‐weighted mean ages of 15.4 ± 0.8 ka, 16.2 ± 1.0 ka, 12.1 ± 0.6 ka and 12.7 ± 0.8 ka. All four ages imply emplacement under cold stadial conditions, two prior to the Windermere Interstade of ca. 14.5–12.9 cal. ka BP and two during the Loch Lomond Stade of ca. 12.9–11.5 cal. ka BP. The above ages indicate that paraglacial rock‐slope failure on granite rockwalls occurred within a few millennia after deglaciation. The mean exposure ages obtained for runout debris at two sites – Strath Nethy (16.2 ± 1.0 ka) and Lairig Ghru (15.4 ± 0.8 ka) – are consistent with basal radiocarbon ages from Loch Etteridge, 22 km to the southwest (mean = 15.6 ± 0.3 cal. ka BP) and imply widespread deglaciation of the Cairngorms and adjacent valleys before 15 ka and possibly 16 ka. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biostratigraphic and aminostratigraphic constraints on the age of the Middle Pleistocene glacial succession in north Norfolk,UK

Considerable debate surrounds the age of the Middle Pleistocene glacial succession in East Anglia following some recent stratigraphical reinterpretations. Resolution of the stratigraphy here is important since it not only concerns the glacial history of the region but also has a bearing on our understanding of the earliest human occupation of north‐western Europe. The orthodox consensus that all the tills were emplaced during the Anglian (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 12) has recently been challenged by a view assigning each major till to a different glacial stage, before, during and after MIS 12. Between Trimingham and Sidestrand on the north Norfolk coast, datable organic sediments occur immediately below and above the glacial succession. The oldest glacial deposit (Happisburgh Till) directly overlies the ‘Sidestrand Unio‐bed’, here defined as the Sidestrand Hall Member of the Cromer Forest‐bed Formation. Dating of these sediments therefore has a bearing on the maximum age of the glacial sequence. This paper reviews the palaeobotany and describes the faunal assemblages recovered from the Sidestrand Unio‐bed, which accumulated in a fluvial environment in a fully temperate climate with regional deciduous woodland. There are indications from the ostracods for weakly brackish conditions. Significant differences are apparent between the Sidestrand assemblages and those from West Runton, the type site of the Cromerian Stage. These differences do not result from contrasting facies or taphonomy but reflect warmer palaeotemperatures at Sidestrand and a much younger age. This conclusion is suggested by the higher proportion of thermophiles at Sidestrand and the occurrence of a water vole with unrooted molars (Arvicola) rather than its ancestor Mimomys savini with rooted molars. Amino acid racemisation data also indicate that Sidestrand is significantly younger than West Runton. These data further highlight the stratigraphical complexity of the ‘Cromerian Complex’ and support the conventional view that the Happisburgh Till was emplaced during the Anglian rather than the recently advanced view that it dates from MIS 16. Moreover, new evidence from the Trimingham lake bed (Sidestrand Cliff Formation) above the youngest glacial outwash sediments (Briton's Lane Formation) indicates that they also accumulated during a Middle Pleistocene interglacial – probably MIS 11. All of this evidence is consistent with a short chronology placing the glacial deposits within MIS 12, rather than invoking multiple episodes of glaciation envisaged in the ‘new glacial stratigraphy’ during MIS 16, 12, 10 and 6. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid Lateglacial tree population dynamics and ecosystem changes in the eastern Baltic region

A growing body of evidence implies that the concept of 'treeless tundra' in eastern and northern Europe fails to explain the rapidity of Lateglacial and postglacial tree population dynamics of the region, yet the knowledge of the geographic locations and shifting of tree populations is fragmentary. Pollen, stomata and plant macrofossil stratigraphies from Lake Kurjanovas in the poorly studied eastern Baltic region provide improved knowledge of ranges of north‐eastern European trees during the Lateglacial and subsequent plant population responses to the abrupt climatic changes of the Lateglacial/Holocene transition. The results prove the Lateglacial presence of tree populations (Betula, Pinus and Picea) in the eastern Baltic region. Particularly relevant is the stomatal and plant macrofossil evidence showing the local presence of reproductive Picea populations during the Younger Dryas stadial at 12 900–11 700 cal. a BP, occurring along with Dryas octopetala and arctic herbs, indicating semi‐open vegetation. The spread of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 14 400 cal. a BP, the rise of Picea at ca. 12 800 cal. a BP and the re‐establishment of Pinus–Betula forest at ca. 11 700 cal. a BP within a span of centuries further suggest strikingly rapid, climate‐driven ecosystem changes rather than gradual plant succession on a newly deglaciated land. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River sediments,great floods and centennial‐scale Holocene climate change

A new analysis of all 346 published ¹⁴C dated Holocene alluvial units in Britain offers a unique insight into the regional impacts of global change and shows how surprisingly sensitive British rivers have been to relatively modest but repeated changes in climate. Fourteen major but probably brief periods of flooding are identified bracketed within the periods 400–1070, 1940–3940, 7520–8100 and at ca. 10 420 cal. yr BP. There is a strong correspondence between climatic deteriorations inferred from mire wet shifts and major periods of flooding, especially at ca. 8000 cal. yr BP and since ca. 4000 cal. yr BP. The unusually long and complete British record also demonstrates that alterations in land cover have resulted in a step change in river basin sensitivity to variations in climate. This has very important implications for assessing and mitigating the impact of increasing severe flooding. In small and medium‐sized river basins land use is likely to play a key role in either moderating or amplifying the climatic signal. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes-Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.     

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of