SOFTWARE REVIEWS

software reviews are in this article MACATLAS . Number Cruncher Statistical System (NCSS) TRANSPRO FIRE-ROUTER     

A hybrid Bayesian back‐propagation neural network approach to multivariate modelling

There is growing interest in the use of back‐propagation neural networks to model non‐linear multivariate problems in geotehnical engineering. To overcome the shortcomings of the conventional back‐propagation neural network, such as overfitting, where the neural network learns the spurious details and noise in the training examples, a hybrid back‐propagation algorithm has been developed. The method utilizes the genetic algorithms search technique and the Bayesian neural network methodology. The genetic algorithms enhance the stochastic search to locate the global minima for the neural network model. The Bayesian inference procedures essentially provide better generalization and a statistical approach to deal with data uncertainty in comparison with the conventional back‐propagation. The uncertainty of data can be indicated using error bars. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the convergence and generalization capabilities of this hybrid algorithm. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of a neural network model in establishing a stage–discharge relationship for a tidal river

This paper presents the applicability of neural network (NN) modelling for forecasting and filtering problems. The multilayer feedforward (MLFF) network was first constructed to forecast the tidal‐level variations at the mouth of the River Chao Phraya in Thailand. Unlike the well‐known conventional harmonic analysis, the NN model uses a set of previous data for learning and then forecasting directly the time‐series of tidal levels. It was found that lead time of 1 to 24 hourly tidal levels can be predicted successfully using only a short‐time hourly learning data. The MLFF network was further used to establish a stage–discharge relationship for the tidal river. The results show a considerably better performance of the NN model over the conventional models. In addition, the stage–discharge relationship obtained by the NN model can indicate reasonably well the important behaviour of the tidal influences. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

福建省地壳形变观测网络建设

介绍了福建省地壳形变观测网络的建设。福建省地壳形变观测网络，以GPS观测技术为主，结合精密水准、精密重力和流动地磁测量，将3者重合到GPS观测基准站上获取观测信息，初步构成一个时空相结合，点线面与长中短兼顾的高精度、高时空分辨率的地壳形变观测网络。该网络可动态监测福建省东南沿海地区地壳运动变化，为地震预测预报提供背景信息，将取得显著的社会效益和经济效益。     

Primary proton spectrum around the knee deduced from the emulsion-chamber data obtained at Mts. Fuji and Kanbala

We have done extensive Monte Carlo simulations using the new simulation codes of CORSIKA and COSMOS to compare with the gamma-family data obtained at Mts. Fuji (3750 m above sea level) and Kanbala (5500 m above sea level). Then, we estimated the primary proton and helium spectra around the knee energy region using a multiple-layered feed-forward neural network as a classifier of primary particle kind. The selection efficiency of proton-induced family events is estimated to be 82%. The flux value of protons at 2×10¹⁵ eV is (5.5±1.5)×10⁻¹⁴ (m⁻² s⁻¹ sr⁻¹ GeV⁻¹). The result suggests heavy-enriched primary composition around the knee region.     

SOFTWARE REVIEWS

software reviews are in this article BMDP/PC CONCEPTS COMPUTERIZED ATLAS EVALUATION OF ALTERNATE PROPOSALS (EAP) EXTRA: EXPRESS TRANSIT ANALYSIS MATC CAD MOTORS TRANSPORTATION PACKAGE PCMAP: Thematic Mapping Software for the IBM Personal Computer, Version 2.3 PLACE TRANPLAN . US-ATLAS     

RBF神经网络的汛期旱涝预报方法研究

分析广州2003年1～6月的SO2、NO2和PM10指数,发现(1)SO2、NO2和PM10具有非常好的同步变化关系,且以NO2和PM10的相关最大。(2)从月平均值来看,PM10是整个时段的主要污染物,SO2次之,NO2最小(1月除外);PM10和NO2呈现出逐月减小趋势,SO2变化平稳。主要讨论PM10指数的变化。(3)从月方差值来看,SO2、NO2和PM10的最大值均在1月,次大值在2月。(4)给出了几种地面气压型,结论显示主要清洁时段出现在锋区强风型,主要污染时段出现在脊内回流型。在脊内回流型下,若由前期的静风转吹东南(从东到南)风时,指数会增大。     

Diagnostic monitoring of a changing environment: an alternative UK perspective

Adaptive management of the marine environment requires an understanding of the complex interactions within it. Establishing levels of natural variability within and between marine ecosystems is a necessary prerequisite to this process and requires a monitoring programme which takes account of the issues of time, space and scale. In this paper, we argue that an ecosystem approach to managing the marine environment should take direct account of climate change indicators at a regional level if it is to cope with the unprecedented change expected as a result of human impacts on the earth climate system. We discuss the purpose of environmental monitoring and the importance of maintaining long-term time series. Recommendations are made on the use of these data in conjunction with modern extrapolation and integration tools (e.g. ecosystem models, remote sensing) to provide a diagnostic approach to the management of marine ecosystems, based on adaptive indicators and dynamic baselines.     

Diffuse CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> degassing at Vesuvio,Italy

At Vesuvio, a significant fraction of the rising hydrothermal–volcanic fluids is subjected to a condensation and separation process producing a CO₂–rich gas phase, mainly expulsed through soil diffuse degassing from well defined areas called diffuse degassing structures (DDS), and a liquid phase that flows towards the outer part of the volcanic cone. A large amount of thermal energy is associated with the steam condensation process and subsequent cooling of the liquid phase. The total amount of volcanic–hydrothermal CO₂ discharged through diffuse degassing has been computed through a sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) approach based on several hundred accumulation chamber measurements and, at the time of the survey, amounted to 151 t d^–1. The steam associated with the CO₂ output, computed assuming that the original H₂O/CO₂ ratio of hydrothermal fluids is preserved in fumarolic effluents, is 553 t d^–1, and the energy produced by the steam condensation and cooling of the liquid phase is 1.47×10¹² J d^–1 (17 MW). The location of the CO₂ and temperature anomalies show that most of the gas is discharged from the inner part of the crater and suggests that crater morphology and local stratigraphy exert strong control on CO₂ degassing and subsurface steam condensation. The amounts of gas and energy released by Vesuvio are comparable to those released by other volcanic degassing areas of the world and their estimates, through periodic surveys of soil CO₂ flux, can constitute a useful tool to monitor volcanic activity.Editorial responsibility: H. Shinohara     

Extremely slow slope movements influencing the stability of Spis Castle,UNESCO site

Spis Castle, a monument included in the UNESCO World Heritage Site list (Eastern Slovakia) is built on a travertine mound overlying soft Paleogene rocks. Lateral spreading resulting from the subsidence of strong upper travertine into soft claystone strata has fractured and separated the castle rock into several cliffs. The differential movement of individual cliff faces is the primary influence on the stability of the monument. In order to monitor and quantify the movement, two techniques were adopted: a mechanical-optical TM-71 crack gauge and a demec gauge (demountable mechanical—SOMET type crack gauge). This paper presents the results and interpretation of medium and short-term monitoring at the site.