多方法联合分析未来地震发生趋势

综合多种前兆方法分析地震活动规律,研究目标地区未来地震发生的趋势。首先采用图像信息法(PI)进行扫描,从长期尺度上找出研究区域内地震活动异常的地区,并结合相关的活动断裂分布及区域地震活动确定未来地震的发震危险区;然后采用加卸载响应比(LURR)、态矢量(SV)、矩张量加速释放(AMR)等中短期前兆方法分析这些区域的地震发生可能,并对地震发生的相关信息做进一步估算;在空间上实现向地震危险区域的逐渐逼近,时间上实现从长期预测到中短期预测的自然过渡。作为回顾性震例研究,我们对近3年来发生在中国西部的强震(ML6.5)进行了检验,结果表明,相对于单一算法而言,将不同前兆方法适当组合结合能够更为明确地为未来地震危险性评估提供信息和约束。     

A Review of Seismicity in 2007

1 SURVEY OF GLOBE SEISMICITY IN 2007
A total of 22 strong earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 occurred in the world according to the Chinese Seismic Station Network in 2007 （Table 1 ）.     

华北型煤田矿井岩溶水涌(突)出机理与涌(突)水量预测方法探讨

北方岩溶水系统的形成与相关河流的发育贯通相辅相成。不同的岩溶水系统模式表现出不同的地下水动力学特征,岩溶水径流带控制的岩溶水网络系统是北方岩溶水系统的基本特征。天然状态下,华北型煤田煤层顶板砂岩地下水系统与底板岩溶地下水系统有水力联系的区域,是矿井岩溶水涌(突)出的危险区。煤矿采掘工程打破了煤层顶、底板地下水系统水压力平衡,在压差作用下,承压岩溶水的"压裂"作用对构造煤系发育层段的疏通有着重要作用。承压岩溶水的释放或涌(突)出,是岩溶承压含水层弹性贮存量的释放,岩溶水运动属非稳定流。将断层等线形过水断面概化成环状井(孔)过水断面,则可用定降深非稳定流承压井流方程,预测可能的岩溶水涌(突)水流量及其变化规律。对流量函数Q(t)定积分,则可预测任意延续时间段的涌(突)水量。基于承压岩溶水弹性释放的非稳定流矿井岩溶水涌(突)水量预测方法,突破了岩溶水涌(突)水量无法预测的禁锢,对提升矿井岩溶水防治水平,解放华北型煤田下组煤有积极、重要意义。     

Problematic non-double-couple mechanism of the 2002 Amfilochia Mw5 earthquake, Western Greece

Two seismic agencies reported a very low double-couple percentage (DC%) of the Amfilochia earthquake, of about 30% and 60%, by Schweizerischer Erdbebendienst and Mediterranean Very Broadband Seismographic Network, respectively. Near-regional waveforms, carefully analyzed in this paper for the DC%, suggested a higher DC%, ranging from 75 to 100, dependent on the uncertainty of the source position (optimum value DC% = 93). Using a statistical F test, forward modeling of the near-regional data with a single-event low-DC% source yields a significantly worse waveform match. The fit of near-regional data can be further improved (although at the 90% significance level only) when considering a speculative two-event model. The same model, when viewed at the very-low frequency range, reaches the very low DC% values. However, two features make the two-event model unlikely: The two subevents strongly differ in their focal mechanism, and their mutual separation (3.5 s) is larger than the expected duration of this earthquake. Therefore, the two-source model appears to be nothing but an interesting equivalent representation of the non-DC model, providing some insight into the possible origin of the apparently low DC%. Preference is given to the simple interpretation, most clearly supported by the near-regional data, that the Amfilochia earthquake was an almost pure-shear event.     

A stochastic approach to nonlinear unconfined flow subject to multiple random fields

In this study, the KLME approach, a moment-equation approach based on the Karhunen–Loeve decomposition developed by Zhang and Lu (Comput Phys 194(2):773–794, 2004), is applied to unconfined flow with multiple random inputs. The log-transformed hydraulic conductivity F, the recharge R, the Dirichlet boundary condition H, and the Neumann boundary condition Q are assumed to be Gaussian random fields with known means and covariance functions. The F, R, H and Q are first decomposed into finite series in terms of Gaussian standard random variables by the Karhunen–Loeve expansion. The hydraulic head h is then represented by a perturbation expansion, and each term in the perturbation expansion is written as the products of unknown coefficients and Gaussian standard random variables obtained from the Karhunen–Loeve expansions. A series of deterministic partial differential equations are derived from the stochastic partial differential equations. The resulting equations for uncorrelated and perfectly correlated cases are developed. The equations can be solved sequentially from low to high order by the finite element method. We examine the accuracy of the KLME approach for the groundwater flow subject to uncorrelated or perfectly correlated random inputs and study the capability of the KLME method for predicting the head variance in the presence of various spatially variable parameters. It is shown that the proposed numerical model gives accurate results at a much smaller computational cost than the Monte Carlo simulation.     

岩石失稳破裂的综合刚度和综合能量准则

Cook刚度准则考虑了试验机内弹性应变能释放对岩石试样失稳破裂的影响,基于弹性能指数和冲击能指数的剩余能量法考虑了岩石内贮存的弹性能对岩样失稳破裂的影响。鉴于岩样失稳破裂时试验机和岩石内都有弹性能释放,建议将两者结合,综合考虑试验机和岩石内贮存的弹性能释放对岩样失稳破裂的效应,称之为岩石失稳破裂的综合刚度和综合能量准则,可以更为合理地确定岩石失稳破裂起始点、终止点位置、给出岩石失稳破裂时试验机-岩样系统（或一般岩体系统）的弹性能释放量计算关系,并可以用几何形式表示这些关系。     

贵阳息烽县阳郎排洪工程水量效应分析——以鱼简河水库至底赛寨为例

在没有河谷水文监测资料的情况下,利用洪丰期水量及引洪流量和河谷断面水文参数,计算出引洪前后鱼简河断面水位、流量的变化,并与河岸农田、村舍等地物分布高程对比,进而评估引洪产生的受灾情况。结果表明在阳朗坝排洪412 m3/s的条件下,鱼简河A-A、C-C地段河谷断面承载流量分别为491.091及476.219 m3/s,相对安全,而B-B、D-D地段,河谷断面承载流量分别为365.002及160.675 m3/s,将有可能被洪水淹没成灾。      

2015年尼泊尔8.1级大地震前后喜马拉雅带地震活动图像演变

针对2015年4月25日尼泊尔M8.1地震后喜马拉雅造山带的未来地震危险性问题,通过对喜马拉雅带历史大地震应变能释放和在尼泊尔地震发震前后的区域地震活动图像进行了分析研究。结果发现喜马拉雅带很可能已进入新-轮的地震活跃期。此次尼泊尔大地震不足以将喜马拉雅带中段的地壳应变能全部释放,喜马拉雅带中段的地震活动和藏南裂谷带地震活动具有密切的关联,在喜马拉雅带中段和藏南裂谷带还将有大地震活动。同时研究结果还显示现今在喜马拉雅带的东段存在阿萨姆围空区和不丹围空区,在喜马拉雅的西段出现噶尔围空区,喜马拉雅西段新德里和西藏接壤地区以及喀喇昆仑断裂上噶尔县地区地震危险性很高,喜马拉雅东段林芝山南地区以南的阿萨姆和不丹地区危险性很高,应引起重视。     

2004年12月26日印尼北苏门答腊以西近海Ms9.0地震与地震的类临界点模型

使用哈佛CMT资料， 研究了2004年12月26日印尼北苏门答腊以西近海MW9.0地震前的长期地震活动. 这次地震前， 在1/4世纪的时间尺度、 1 500 km的空间尺度上， 存在加速矩释放（AMR）现象. 在这一空间尺度范围内，MW9.0地震仍落在分段的幂律分布上. 因此, 从地震的类临界点模型的角度考虑， 对这次特大地震的发生和地震的大小既无预测、 亦无预报的情况， 并非由物理上的ldquo;不可预测性rdquo;所致.