水平衡下黄淮海平原区耕地可持续生产能力测算

为缓解黄淮海平原区地下水水位的持续下降,国家提出耕地资源休养生息的战略,而实施耕地资源休养生息的关键,是确保水平衡下的耕地资源可持续生产能力。本文从可持续理论和水平衡的条件出发,将黄淮海划分成12个自然条件、社会经济条件相对均一的农业生态区,采用不同农业生态区代表实验站限水高产的产量和管理经验,以水定产并逐步修正,得到了黄淮海平原区耕地可持续生产能力,并与现实产量对比得到产量差。结果表明：① 水平衡条件下黄淮海平原区耕地的可持续粮食生产能力为1.16亿t/年;② 可持续总产产量差为-67.85万t/年,由于限水灌溉造成的粮食产能损失为小麦331.84万t/年,玉米不存在产能损失;③ 小麦主要压产地区为黑龙港地区、鲁西平原、豫东平原以及京津唐平原,而徐淮低平原、豫东平原以及胶西黄泛平原具有一定的提产潜力。通过测算,进一步认识了黄淮海平原区耕地可持续产能状况,为区域粮食生产的合理布局以及农业限水限产提供可靠依据。     

Analysis of the coupled relationship between grain yields and agricultural labor changes in China

In this paper we establish a model that expresses the coupled relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes in China, and present a preliminary discussion of the coupled processes involved in changes in these factors at the county level. Thus, we develop two coefficients on the basis of county-level statistical data for grain yield and agricultural labor for the years 1991, 2000, and 2010, namely, the grain-labor elasticity coefficient (GLEC) and the agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient (ALTEC). The results of this study show that during the transformation process of agricultural development in China, different kinds of coupled relationships between grain yield and agricultural labor changes co-existed at the same time. For example, between 1991 and 2010, counties characterized by three different coupled modes (i.e., increasing grain yield and decreasing agricultural labor, increasing grain yield and agricultural labor, and decreasing grain yield and agricultural labor) account for 48.85%, 29.11%, and 19.74% of the total across the study area, respectively. Interestingly, a coupled relationship between increasing grain yield and decreasing agricultural labor is mainly concentrated in the traditional farming areas of China, while a coupled relationship between increasing grain yield and agricultural labor is primarily concentrated in pastoral areas and agro-pastoral ecotones in underdeveloped western China. At the same time, a coupled relationship between decreasing grain yield and agricultural labor is concentrated in areas that have experienced a rapid development transition in agriculture, especially the developed southeastern coast of China. The results of this study also show that between 1991 and 2010, 1961 counties experienced a decline in the proportion of agricultural labor; of these, 1452 are also characterized by increasing grain yield, 72.38% of the total. This coupled relationship between grain yield and changes in the proportion of agricultural labor shows a stepped fluctuation and has continually strengthened over time. Data show that mean values for the GLEC and ALTEC increased from–0.25 and–2.93 between 1991 and 2000 to–0.16 and–1.78 between 2000 and 2010, respectively. These changes in GLEC and ALTEC illustrate that the influence of agricultural labor changes on increasing grain yields has gradually diminished. Finally, the results of this study reveal that the ‘Hu Huanyong Line’ is a significant boundary sub-dividing this coupled relationship between grain yield and changes in agricultural labor.     

Eco-compensati on in Guanting Reservoir Watershed Based on Spatiotemporal Variations of Water Yield and Purification Services

Guanting Reservoir (GR) is one of the most important water sources for Beijing and neighboring regions. Due to water pollution, it was withdrawn from the system to supply Beijing drinking water; however, after a thorough treatment process, GR was made a reserve water source since 2007. To develop a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of water yield and purification services in the GR watershed, this study selected two time periods: the period when GR was withdrawn from the system supplying local drinking water and the period that it has been designated a reserve water source. The InVEST model was used to evaluate the quantities of water yields, and total nitrogen and total phosphorus outputs from 1995 to 2010 Additionally, the spatiotemporal variations of water yield services and water quality purification services in the GR watershed were analyzed. The results showed that water yield services in the GR watershed first weakened and then became stronger, but weakened overall during the years 1995 to 2010. Water yield capacity in the basin decreased from 1.89×109 m³ in 1995 to 1.43×109 m³ in 2010 (a drop of 24.0% in total). Water quality purification services also showed the same tendency. Total nitrogen output decreased from 4028.7 t in 1995 to 3611.4 t in 2010, while total phosphorus decreased from 379.7 t in 1995 to 354.0 t in 2010. Nitrogen and phosphorus purification services were enhanced by 10.4% and 6.8%, respectively. Changes in the climate and land use were the main factors which lead to the changes in the water yield service in the GR watershed. Policies intended to protect water resource have matched the varying trends of water quality purification services during different periods. On one hand, the research results provide a foundation to identify key fields for eco-compensation in the Guanting Reservoir basin. On another hand, the ecosystem service value will increase on the basis of eco-compensation criteria through setting the scenarios of returning farmland to forest and ecological protection. This method directly reflects increases in ecosystem service values that have occurred since measures to protect the ecological environment have been implemented. This method is more persuasive and feasible than using eco-compensation criteria based on regional ecosystem service values determined by land use/ coverage type. It can provide a new way to assess eco-compensation in the Guanting Reservoir basin and other regions.     

关于业务上应用条件对称不稳定相关问题的讨论

条件对称不稳定（CSI）理论常常被用来作为倾斜对流的发展机制之一,在业务上常用来解释与锋面相联系的一条或多条中尺度雨带、雷达图像上观测到的带状雨带的成因等。条件对称不稳定的诊断包括CSI斜率判据、斜升对流有效位能（SCAPE）、湿对称不稳定（MSI）、相当位涡（EPV）等判据。业务预报人员存疑较多的问题是这些方法是否具有一致性并在业务上如何使用。针对上述问题,首先通过与业务预报人员较熟悉的条件不稳定类型作类比,来说明条件对称不稳定两种判据与条件不稳定两种判据的相似性。但在业务使用上,判别条件对称不稳定时多使用CSI斜率判据,即等动量面的坡度大于等位温面坡度而小于等湿球位温面坡度。由于条件对称不稳定通常出现在大气处于几乎饱和的情况下,此时的CSI斜率判据则演变为湿对称不稳定判据,即等动量面坡度小于等湿球位温面坡度。为判别相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据是否具有一致性,文中的推导和实例分析均表明,二维相当位涡实际上是湿对称不稳定判据的另一种表现形式,但是湿对称不稳定判据需主观去比较等相当位温面与等动量面斜率大小,而二维相当位涡则可通过其是否小于0进行客观判断。需注意的是,在与推导条件对称不稳定斜率判据相同的二维坐标下,相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据才具有一致性,将相当位涡扩展到常规坐标下使用三维相当位涡作为湿对称不稳定判据是不可取的。      

低温阴雨对丹东地区粮食作物产量的影响

对丹东地区1978—2015年春季气象资料进行分析,分别从低温、寡照、多雨3个方面研究其对粮食作物造成危害程度的大小,将其划分3个不同的灾害等级。利用拉格朗日插值法计算出作物的期望产量,运用分离法将低温阴雨对粮食作物的损失分离出来,探讨低温阴雨年景与丹东地区粮食作物产量的相关关系。结果表明:(1)丹东地区稻谷、大豆产量都表现出明显的阶段变化。(2)低温型低温阴雨天气对作物的影响为:玉米大豆稻谷;寡照型低温阴雨天气对玉米、稻谷、大豆的影响相对较大,影响力为:大豆玉米稻谷;多雨型低温阴雨天气对玉米和大豆的影响较稻谷大得多。     

不同施氮量对沙地春小麦株穗性状及产量的影响

在内蒙古奈曼旗对沙地春小麦进行了氮肥施量试验。结果表明,不同施氮量(尿素15.0~51.5g·m^-2)对沙地春小麦穗粒数、千粒重、有效小穗数及其百分率、籽粒产量、生物产量的影响具有显著差异,但对成穗数、株高的影响差异不明显。产量水平以施氮量为37.5g·m^-2时最高。     

长城湾夏季初级生产力及其光量子产值

本文报道了１９９２～１９９３年南极长城湾及其邻近水域夏季初级生产力的水平、同化系数及其分布特征,并对影响水域生产力的主要因素进行了分析。同时对该海区的光量子产值和光利用效率进行了测定,结果表明：长城湾夏季光量子产值的变化范围为１．４７９×１０－２～９．０２８×１０－２ｍｏｌ碳／ｍｏｌ光量子,平均值为４．５５８×１０－２ｍｏｌ碳／ｍｏｌ光量子;浮游植物对光的利用效率为０．７９６×１０－２～１．８２４×１０－２。该海区夏季的光量子产值和光利用效率远高于其他海区。     

煤层气生成与煤层气富集Ⅱ.有效生气阶段生气量的估算

煤层的生气条件主要通过有效阶段生气量来影响煤层气的富集。有效阶段生气量取决于有效生气阶段的起止煤级和煤中原始有机质的丰度及其组成。本文给出了估算有效阶段生气量的基本公式,重点讨论了煤中原始有机质的丰度和组成的恢复方法,并以沁水盆地南部主要矿区3号和15号煤层为例,对有效阶段生气量进行了估算。      

苍梧县橄榄生产气象条件分析①

通过对橄榄产量     

电流变液中剪切模量的计算

利用自由能极限计算电流变液的剪切模量, 发现在一定物质参数范围内, 周期性ＢＣＴ 结构不再是电流变液的基态结构。讨论ＢＣＴ 结构为基态条件下, 固体材料的介电常数、固态和液态材料的体积比、小球间距对电流变液的影响。