潮汐形变资料中地震前兆信息的识别与提取

将小波变换的多分辨率分析引入潮汐形变资料处理中，对近年来云南地区的3次强震前的潮汐形变观测资料进行了处理与分析，发现在地震前2～5个月，震中附近的形变台站都接收到一个频段相同的异常信号，且它们之间是相关的，相关系数达80％以上，由此可以确定信号是由同一个源发出来的。出现在多个台站的相同频段的异常信号很可能就是我们想要得到的地震前兆信息。     

滇西地震预报实验场场区水平形变分析

利用场区各种类型水平形变网数据，求得红河断裂中、北段的区域应力场基本特征是：（１）北区为张性左旋型，（２）中区为压性右旋型，（３）南区为张性右旋型。场区区域应力场基本以张性为主，中区的压性右旋型恰好反映转换区应力场的局部特征。北区主应变积累和速率比南区大，最大处在剑川，而高敏感区在后山定两岭。基于水平形变和应变分析，获得了场区现今主要活动构造参数。利用地震前兆形变信息和震后效应进行了地震震例分析。并对３～５年内的潜在震源区进行了预估。     

格尔木河流域河流地貌演化研究进展

位于柴达木盆地南缘的格尔木河发源于东昆仑山脉,末端注入盆地中东部的察尔汗盐湖,是该盐湖最主要的补给河流,极大地影响着该盐湖的成盐演化过程。格尔木河的主要支流—昆仑河和雪水河都是由冰川融水形成,因此该流域内的冰川进退对河流径流量变化和谷地填充地层的物源有着重要影响。该流域内主要的填充地层为昆仑河砾岩(河流相)、纳赤台沟组(冲洪积相)和三岔河组(河湖相)。在三岔河组之上,发育了4~5级阶地,除最高的T5之外,其它均为以三岔河组为基座的内叠阶地(少部分河段以昆仑河砾岩为基座)。根据前人的研究,昆仑河砾岩沉积的年代为1 269~1 042 ka(ESR年龄);纳赤台沟组堆积于482~642 ka之间(ESR和TL年龄);三岔河组形成于355~95 ka(ESR和U系年龄)、90~16 ka(OSL年龄),T5~T1阶地基本形成于16~4.6 ka之间。由于采用的测年方法不同,不同学者对三岔河组的形成时代存在争议,对阶地的划分也有所不同(4级或5级阶地)。但是,对T5~T1阶地形成时代有较一致的观点,即末次冰消期和全新世早中期。对于格尔木河河流地貌过程的驱动因素,目前尚存在争论,大部分学者认为是气候变化驱动了该区域河流地貌的形成,但也有学者认为构造活动是主导因素。     

Landslide susceptibility mapping using geological data, a DEM from ASTER images and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

An efficient and accurate method of generating landslide susceptibility maps is very important to mitigate the loss of properties and lives caused by this type of geological hazard. This study focuses on the development of an accurate and efficient method of data integration, processing and generation of a landslide susceptibility map using an ANN and data from ASTER images. The method contains two major phases. The first phase is the data integration and analysis, and the second is the Artificial Neural Network training and mapping. The data integration and analysis phase involve GIS based statistical analysis relating landslide occurrence to geological and DEM (digital elevation model) derived geomorphological parameters. The parameters include slope, aspect, elevation, geology, density of geological boundaries and distance to the boundaries. This phase determines the geological and geomorphological factors that are significantly correlated with landslide occurrence. The second phase further relates the landslide susceptibility index to the important geological and geomorphological parameters identified in the first phase through ANN training. The trained ANN is then used to generate a landslide susceptibility map. Landslide data from the 2004 Niigata earthquake and a DEM derived from ASTER images were used. The area provided enough landslide data to check the efficiency and accuracy of the developed method. Based on the initial results of the experiment, the developed method is more than 90% accurate in determining the probability of landslide occurrence in a particular area.     

Geological evolution and hydrocarbon potential of the salt-cored Hoodoo Dome,Sverdrup Basin,Arctic Canada

The evaporite-cored Hoodoo Dome on southern Ellef Ringnes Island, Sverdrup Basin, was examined to improve the understanding of its structural geological history in relation to hydrocarbon migration. Data from geological mapping, reflection seismic, thermal maturity and detrital apatite (U–Th)/He cooling ages are presented. Five stages of diapirism are interpreted from Jurassic to Recent times:1. 180 to 163 Ma (pre-Deer Bay Formation; development of a diapir with a circular map pattern).2. 163 to 133 Ma (Deer Bay to lower Isachsen formations; development of salt wings).3. 115 to 94 Ma (Christopher and Hassel formations; ongoing diapirism and development of an oval map pattern)4. 79 Ma (Kanguk Formation; reactivation of the central diapir).5. 42 Ma to 65 Ma (Eurekan Orogeny; tightening of the anticline).During phase1, the Hoodoo diapir was circular. During phase 2, salt wings formed along its margin. During phase 3, the Hoodoo Dome geometry evolved into a much larger, elongate, doubly plunging anticline. Phase 4 is inferred from thermochronology data as indicated by a cluster of cooling ages, but the extent of motion during that time is unknown. During Phase 5 the dome was tightened creating approximately 700 m of structural relief. Denudation since the end of the Eurekan Orogeny is estimated to be about 600 m.A one dimensional burial history model predicts hydrocarbon generation from Middle and Late Triassic source rocks between 140 and 66 Ma, with majority of hydrocarbon expulsion between 117 and 79 Ma. Hydrocarbon generation post-dates salt wing formation, so that this trap could host natural gas expelled from Triassic source rocks.     

成都“2008.9.24”暴雨的中尺度数值模拟

为了更好的研究四川成都地区2008年9月23日～25日强降水天气的物理机制,利用中尺度天气预报模式(Weather Research Forecast,WRF)模拟了此次过程,并结合FY-2号C星云图资料,对过程的发生、发展过程进行分析后发现,此次暴雨过程为低层弱低压辐合,同时台风"黑格比"登陆后带来大量水汽,并借助西伸的西太平洋副高源源不断的向四川盆地输送,另外存在来自南方孟加拉湾水汽的持续供应,对流云团形成于地面低压与西伸副高的交界处,并沿着副高边缘由西南向东北移动,雨带分布在副高边缘气压梯度大的地方,模拟结果与观测事实基本相符。利用WRF模式模拟暴雨产生的环流形势,配合卫星云图,能进一步揭示暴雨产生的物理机制,可作为深化暴雨研究的有效手段。     

辽宁省深部构造特征及其地质意义

本文应用了最新取得的“五统一”区域重力成果，并经过对浅表松散槽（如下辽河断陷，大岩体等）的密度亏损进行补偿改正后，求取了全省的区域重力场及其垂向二次导数，计算了莫氏面等深度图。在分析区域重力场及其垂向二次导数异常特征和莫氏面起伏特征的基础上，划分出辽宁深部构造的基本格局。从平面上探讨了深部构造与地形地势、地质构造及矿产分布的关系，从剖面上剖析了辽宁省地壳分层的宏观特征     

中国大陆强震活动时空特征分析

本文在以往研究的基础上分析中国大陆强震活动的时空特征, 以中国大陆1901年以来7级及其以上强震年频次为样本, 采用最优分割将中国大陆地震活动状态分为三种时段: 少发段、 平均段和频发段。 中国大陆强震时间活动呈现非稳态现象, 强震频发段间存在短期的地震平静, 由强震平均段到频发段过渡期间同样存在强震少发段, 而少发段也有7级以上强震发生。 以此为基础结合中国大陆活动地块边界带, 研究不同强震丛发时段前地震活动的空间分布特点以及强震丛发时段的主体活动地区。 研究结果表明, 1901年以来中国大陆强震活动总体来讲, 1955年前后表现出不同的空间特征: 1955年之前强震活动主体区域为中国西部及周边大三角地区的三条边界; 1955年之后强震活动主体区域为华北地区、 巴颜喀拉地块区及南北地震带南段地区。 不同相邻强震丛发时段的主体活动地区有一定的交替性, 少发时段或增多时段的强震往往是上一个丛发时段的主体区内强震活动的延续, 或者发生在下一个强震主体活动区内或周边地区。