Public values for energy system change

In this paper we discuss the importance of framing the question of public acceptance of sustainable energy transitions in terms of values and a ‘whole-system’ lens. This assertion is based on findings arising from a major research project examining public values, attitudes and acceptability with regards to whole energy system change using a mixed-method (six deliberative workshops, n = 68, and a nationally representative survey, n = 2441), interdisciplinary approach. Through the research we identify a set of social values associated with desirable energy futures in the UK, where the values represent identifiable cultural resources people draw on to guide their preference formation about particular aspects of energy system change. As such, we characterise public perspectives as being underpinned by six value clusters relating to efficiency and wastefulness, environment and nature, security and stability, social justice and fairness, autonomy and power, and processes and change. We argue that this ‘value system’ provides a basis for understanding core reasons for public acceptance or rejection of different energy system aspects and processes. We conclude that a focus on values that underpin more specific preferences for energy system change brings insights that could provide a basis for improved dialogue, more robust decision-making, and for anticipating likely points of conflict in energy transitions.     

Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.     

卡尔曼滤波器在卫星遥感影像大地校正中的应用

在卫星遥感图像的预处理中,通过系统校正可以基本上消除影像内部的变形误差。然而,整幅影像的大地定位误差仍然是很大的,甚至几百米至1公里的数量级。本文介绍利用少量的地面控制点,采用递归算法而不是批处理算法,大大地提高大地定位精度。在单幅影像处理中,可以重新对卫星的轨道参数与姿态参数进行估值,从而提高影像的大地定位精度。在一条轨道上连续的多幅影像中,可以预报下一幅影像的大地位置,从而对那些不具有地面控制点的影像的大地校正中,实现外推计算。文中介绍并推导了卡尔曼滤波器方程中的转移矩阵和测量矩阵的系数,并推荐用数值回归的办法求得其数值解。文中最后介绍模拟试验及算法计算结果,并讨论其优缺点。     

用信息通讯网络平台构筑灌溉管理新模式

随着信息化、网络化的进程不断加快,信息通信技术迅速普及,其对经济社会发展形成了具大的推动力,通信网络已成为经济发展的一种战略性资源和高科技手段,利用信息产业新技术、新业务、新成果和新服务做为灌溉管理工作的一个新平台,形成一个网络型、管理型、服务型的灌溉管理新体制,在灌溉管理上可拓宽管理服务区域,加快灌溉信息的传速和反馈,达到与农户的互动,加强灌溉情况的勾通。使灌溉管理单位和农户之间的沟通和联系越来越紧密。可以促进灌溉管理流程更加简便高效,提高灌溉管理效率,减少管理工作中间环节,降低灌溉管理成本,全面提高灌溉管理服务质量。利用通讯信息网络平台来组建灌溉管理组织,通过在灌区的试运行,管理单位与农户联系迅速,灌溉及时,费用降低,作用显著,应运效果好。信息化、网络化与水利灌溉管理工作的融合。对灌溉管理乃至水利工作的全面发展将具有深远的影响,     

楚雄小水井—西西郎金矿带成矿空间

西西郎-小水井金矿带控矿因素为断裂和地层,岩浆期后热液、变质水及地下热卤水通过渗滤富集作用形成的微粒浸染型金矿床。该区是有理想的成矿空间。     

结合MapReduce和HBase的遥感图像并行分布式查询

提出了一种可扩展的遥感图像多维度并行查询模式,即利用MapReduce实现海量图像数据金字塔的并行构建,利用HBase实现图像的分布式检索,设计和实现了单张遥感图像金字塔的并行构建方法和图像索引系统。实验结果表明,随着Hadoop和HBase集群的增长,图像数据的导入和检索速度得到明显提升。     

复杂地形区陆面资料对WRF模式模拟性能的影响

本文利用WRF（Weather Research and Forecasting）模式耦合Noah陆面过程模式,对比研究了使用不同精度陆面资料:WRF默认陆面资料、中国1 km分辨率数字高程模型数据集、2006年MODIS（MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）土地利用和植被覆盖度资料,WRF模式对兰州地区冬季气象场模拟结果的差异。结果表明,近地面气温对陆面资料的精度非常敏感,而风场对陆面资料的精度不敏感,WRF模式对气温的模拟效果好于对风场模拟。采用高精度且时效性好的陆面资料后,WRF模拟的近地面气温准确率提高了15.8%,模拟的夜间气温改进幅度较白天大。陆面资料可影响整个边界层温度场分布,准确的陆面资料对提高WRF模式模拟近地面乃至整个边界层气象场至关重要。尽管风速模拟误差较大,但总体上WRF模式能较准确地模拟出研究区的风场演变特征。使用新的陆面资料后WRF模拟的风速误差略有减小,风向误差略有增加。干旱半干旱区冬季数值模拟需要注意土壤湿度初值和模式初始积分时刻对模拟结果的影响。     

Evaluation of oceanic transport parameters using transient tracers from observations and model output

A method is presented to find the age distribution of ocean waters, the transit-time distribution (TTD), by combining an eddying global ocean model’s estimate of the TTD with hydrographic observations of CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. The method uses a mixture model of an assumed form of the TTD, an inverse Gaussian (IG), and an established Bayesian statistical method. All known significant sources of uncertainty are propagated to arrive at estimates of two oceanic transport parameters associated with the IG TTD, the mean age (Γ) and either the half-variance (${\mathrm{\Delta }}^2$) or the Peclet number ($\mathit{Pe}={\mathrm{\Gamma }}^2/{\mathrm{\Delta }}^2$). It is found that the uncertainties on Γ do not overlap zero in most locations using only CFC-11, temperature, and salinity. However, the uncertainty on the other IG parameter does not overlap zero in only a few locations. With the inclusion of another transient tracer (³He/³H), the uncertainty on this other IG parameter does not overlap zero in just a few additional locations in the deep North Atlantic Ocean. Neither a single- nor mixture-IG representation is adequate for representing the full TTD in the ocean, particularly in the Southern Ocean.Differences between the IG parameters estimated using the model’s tracers as data (BayesPOP) and those estimated using tracer observations as data (BayesObs) provide information about the sources of model biases, and give a more nuanced picture than can be found by comparing the simulated CFCs with observed CFCs. Using the differences between each of the oceanic transport parameters from BayesObs and those from BayesPOP with and without a constant Pe assumption along each of the hydrographic cross-sections considered here, it is found that the model’s eddy mixing biases often lead to larger model errors than the model’s mean advection time biases. It is also found that mean advection time biases in the model can be statistically significant at the 95% level where mode water is found in the Southern Ocean.     

一次典型高压型海雾过程中海上大气波导的数值模拟

2009年4月9—12日黄海海域发生了一次受高压系统影响的海雾过程。利用卫星观测与探空数据、WRF模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对此次海雾过程及相伴的大气波导进行了观测分析与数值模拟。海雾与波导发展可分为3个阶段:(1)大气波导先于海雾存在于黄海海面;受高压下沉影响,黄海上空存在逆温层和较强的湿度梯度,表现为较强的贴海表面波导和非贴海表面波导。(2)海雾始于高压西部,并随高压系统逐渐东移减弱,向黄海北部扩展;辐射冷却虽然使雾顶附近逆温增强,但海雾的机械湍流使其顶部湿度梯度减小,雾顶附近对应弱悬空波导或波导消失。(3)高压系统影响使干空气下沉到雾区导致黄海海雾消散;雾顶附近逆温仍存在,同时湿度梯度增大,黄海上空逐渐变为非贴海表面波导。本研究结果表明:高压系统不仅极易为波导的发生提供有利条件,而且有利于海雾的生成,在海雾演变过程中主要是雾顶水汽梯度的变化导致了波导类型及强度的变化。     

Species distribution modelling to support marine conservation planning: The next steps

Species distribution models (SDMs) offer great potential for inclusion into the toolbox of today's marine environmental manager, especially with regard to marine conservation and planning. The application of SDMs in the marine environment over recent years has been varied but there are still relatively few examples in comparison with terrestrial application, and this is especially true in deep-sea marine ecosystems. This short article builds upon two recent review articles concerning the application of species distribution modelling studies in the marine realm, offering additional practical considerations for discussion. Recommendations for progressing the improved application of SDMs to support marine conservation planning are given, including combining model outputs with other data layers, metadata standards and model error. SDMs have both an urgent and long term contribution to make to marine conservation planning globally, and it is hoped that this article, in combination with developing research on marine SDMs, will contribute to some much needed discussion and inform best practice and new research to enable these models to be of greater use to marine managers.