基于可预报模态分析方法的青藏高原东部夏季降水统计预测模型

利用国家气象信息中心提供的降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料以及Hadley中心提供的海温资料,基于可预报模态分析(PMA)方法,从观测数据中提取青藏高原东部夏季降水具有物理意义的可预报模态,根据已有研究选取合适的预报因子并建立了物理-经验(P-E)模型,从而对青藏高原东部夏季降水进行统计预测。结果表明:南北反向型、一致型、中部型和东北型这4个主导模态反映了降水的异常变化,具有一定的物理意义,为可预报模态;超前0个月和超前1个月的区域平均的预报技巧分别为0.44和0.36,其中青藏高原东南部地区的预报技巧较高;超前0个月和超前1个月的模态相关系数分别为0.46和0.42,预报最好的年份都是1998年,预报最差的年份分别是1980年和2009年。     

某水电站心墙坝和面板坝沉降变形比选研究

某拟建坝基覆盖层深,层厚变化大,物质多样,物质分布不均,坝基沉降量大,不均匀沉降显著.采用分层总和法和三维数值模拟,对心墙坝和面板坝两种坝型的坝基沉降变形进行分析评价.发现两种坝型的坝基覆盖层沉降变形和不均匀沉降均未超过规范量值,但面板坝沉降量和沉降差皆优于心墙坝.     

一类与算子有关的级数转化公式

利用算子之间的相互关系将算子g(xΔ)展成3种不同的形式,构造一些级数转化公式,并结合Eulerian多项式简化这些级数转化公式、最后讨论这些级数转化公式在寻找求和公式及组合恒等式证明中的一些应用。     

一种求和法及其应用

为了用泛函的方法解决收敛问题,通过应用拓扑向量空间的一些性质,将一个序列到另一个序列的变化看作是变换,得到复距离空间中一些序列收敛性的等价条件.改进和推广了Abel定理,Mertens定理,O.Stolze公式等.     

储水层质量守恒方程的简化及在垂向弹性形变假定下与水流方程的耦合

给出了非固结储水层的质量守恒方程在不同假定条件下的简化形式及其物理意义,并揭示水的非稳定渗流与储水层形变之间的相互因果关系及形变量与储(释)水量之间的体积交换关系.通过垂向弹性形变假定下,储水层形变质量守恒方程与渗流方程的耦合分析发现,细粒储水层由于水头变化导致骨架对水的弹性储存或释放而引发的任一点处的垂向应变,等于其储水层的总弹性储(释)水率或骨架弹性储(释)水率与水头增量的乘积,该公式实际上为计算地面沉降的分层总和法提供了基本理论依据.     

THE EVALUATION OF ECO－ENVIRONMENTAL SUSCEPTIBILITY TO HUMAN ACTIVITY IN YULIN REGION

ＴＨＥＥＶＡＬＵＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＥＣＯ－ＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＬＳＵＳＣＥＰＴＩＢＩＬＩＴＹＴＯＨＵＭＡＮＡＣＴＩＶＩＴＹＩＮＹＵＬＩＮＲＥＧＩＯＮ陈利顶，傅伯杰ＴＨＥＥＶＡＬＵＡＴＩＯＮＯＦＥＣＯ－ＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＬＳＵＳＣＥＰＴＩＢＩＬＩ...     

Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

Probabilistic seismic hazard for Mainland Portugal was re-evaluated in order to perform its disaggregation. Seismic hazard was disaggregated considering different spaces of random variables, namely, univariate conditional hazard distributions of M (magnitude), R (source-to-site distance) and ε (deviation of ground motion to the median value predicted by an attenuation model), bivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R and X–Y (seismic source latitude and longitude) or multivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R–ε and M–(X–Y)–ε. The main objective of the present work was achieved, as it was possible, based on the modal values of the above mentioned distributions, to characterize the scenarios that dominate some seismic hazard levels of the 278 Mainland Portuguese counties. In addition, results of 4D disaggregation analysis, in M–(X–Y)–ε, pointed out the existence of one geographic location shared by the dominant scenario of most analyzed counties, especially for hazard levels correspondent to high return periods. Those dominant scenarios are located offshore at a distance of approximately 70 km WSW of S. Vicente cape. On the other hand, the lower the return period the higher is the number of modal scenarios in the neighbourhood of the analyzed site. One may conclude that modal scenarios reproduce hazard target values in each site with great accuracy enabling the applications derived from those scenarios (e.g. loss evaluation) to be associated to a hazard level exceedance probability.