CMIP5模式对东太平洋ITCZ偶极子模态模拟能力的评估

本研究利用第五次国际间耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, CMIP5)中的24个模式的工业革命前控制试验(Pre-industrial Control, picontrol)模拟结果, 结合观测资料, 评估了24个CMIP5 模式对东太平洋热带辐合带偶极子(Eastern Pacific ITCZ dipole, EPID)降水模态的模拟能力, 并建立了其与模式对热带太平洋气候态模拟之间的联系。结果表明: 1) 绝大多数模式在北半球春季(2—4月)对EPID模态模拟能力较差, 主要原因在于CMIP5模式对热带辐合带(Intertropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ)的模拟偏差, 其中模拟效果较差的模式在2—4月的气候态降水分布在赤道以南, 且降水普遍偏强; 2) 对各模式的EPID模态选取的季节按照技巧评分最高进行调整后, 大部分模式能较好地模拟出EPID模态的空间分布特点, 技巧评分在0.6以上, 其中模拟效果好的模式(技巧评分大于0.7)中EPID模态出现的月份同时在中东太平洋气候态表现出“双ITCZ”特征, 且多模式集合结果的模拟误差小于绝大多数模式。     

Numerical Simulation of North Indian Ocean State Prior to the Onset of SW Monsoon Using SSM/I Winds

The Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) and currents are simulated over the north Indian Ocean, during the onset phase of southwest monsoon for the three years 1994, 1995, and 1996, using daily Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) winds and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) heat fluxes as forcings in the 2½ layer thermodynamic numerical ocean model. The results are discussed for the 30-day period from 16 May to 13 June for all the three years, to determine the ocean state during the onset phase of SW monsoon. The maximum variability in the simulated SST is found along the Somali coast, Indian coasts, and equatorial regions. The maximum SST in the North Arabian Sea is found to be greater than 30°C and minimum SST in the west equatorial region is 25°C during the onset phase of all three years. Model SSTs are in agreement with Reynolds SST. SST gradients in the north-south as well as in the east-west directions, west of 80°E are found to change significantly prior to the onset. It can be inferred from the study that the SST gradient of 2.5°C/2000 km is seen due north and due west of the region 2° - 7°S, 60° - 65°E, about 8 to 10 days prior to the arrival of SW monsoon near Kerala coast. Upper and lower layer circulation fields do not show prominent interannual variability.     

Geochemical types of pacific polymetallic nodules: An application of multivariate analysis

A total of 843 samples of Pacific Ocean polymetallic nodules (PNs) from five survey areas have been studied (metals analyzed: Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Co, Zn, Pb). The statistical analysis included the following techniques: factor R analysis, quick cluster Q analysis into 50 preclasses, various hierarchical cluster Q analyses (HCAs) using the preclasses (application of different HCAs to an identical set of data and of an identical HCA to two different subsets of the data), comparison of the HCA. The PNs of the survey areas can be grouped into five geochemical types (I‐V). The genesis of the PNs was interpreted as early diagenetic, hydrogenetic, and mixed (early diagenetic/hydrogenetic and hydrogenetic/hydrothermal. In addition, some further conclusions regarding the applicability of various HCA techniques depending on the structure of the data set have been drawn.     

赤道中、东太平洋表层流速20d振荡特征分析

通过对1985年1月1日—1986年12月31日沿赤道5个锚定浮标站表层流速资料的分析,发现在140°W与108°W之间表层流速v存在一周期约为20d的显著振荡。该振荡是由波长约2000km、以1.15-1.23m／s的波速向西传播的波动引起的。该波动被推断为第二斜压模态混合Rossby惯性重力波。带通滤波和低通滤波结果表明,以110°W测站为例,20d振荡流速构方根为21.8cm／s（纬向）和22.1cm／s（经向）;单一流速振幅的特征值为30-50cm／s,最大振幅可达70cm／s;u季节变化的均方根小于17cm／s,v无明显季节变化。年平均流速通常小于5cm／s。以上各统计量表明,20d周期波动引起的v振荡在赤道东太平洋表层流速变化中非常显著。     

Improved Method for Calculating Anthropogenic CO2 in the Upper Layer of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre along 175°E

Seawater samples were collected in the North Pacific along 175°E during a cruise of the Northwest Pacific Carbon Cycle Study (NOPACCS) program in 1994. Many properties related to the carbonate system were analyzed. By using well-known ratios to correct for chemical changes in seawater, the CO₂ concentration at a given depth was back calculated to its initial concentration at the time when the water left the surface in winter. We estimated sea-surface CO₂ and titration alkalinity (TA) in present-day winter, from which we evaluated the degree of air-sea CO₂ disequilibrium in winter was. Using a correction factor for air-sea CO₂ disequilibrium in winter, we reconstructed sea-surface CO₂ in pre-industrial times. The difference between the back-calculated initial CO₂ and sea-surface CO₂ in pre-industrial times should correspond to anthropgenic CO₂ input. Although the mixing of different water masses may cause systematic error in the calculation, we found that the nonlinear effect induced by the mixing of different water masses was negligible in the upper layer of the North Pacific subtropical gyre along 175°E. The results of our improved method of assessing the distribution of anthropogenic CO₂ in that region show marked differences from those obtained using the previous back-calculation method.     

A Preliminary Study of Oceanic Bomb Radiocarbon Inventory in the North Pacific during the Last Two Decades

Radiocarbon and total carbonate data were obtained near the 1973 GEOSECS stations in the North Pacific along 30°N and along 175°E between 1993 and 1994. In these stations, we estimated radiocarbon originating from atomic bomb tests using tritium, trichlorofluoromethane and silicate contents. The average penetration depth of bomb radiocarbon during the two decades has deepened from 900 m to 1300 m. Bomb radiocarbon inventories above the average value for the whole North Pacific were found widely in the western subtropical region around 30°N both in the 1970s and 1990s, and its area in the 1990s was broader than that in the 1970s. In most of the North Pacific, while the bomb radiocarbon has decreased above 25.4, the bomb radiocarbon flux below 25.4 was over 1 × 10¹² atom m^-2yr^-1 in the subtropical region around 30°N. In the tropical area south of 20°N, the bomb radiocarbon inventory below 25.4 increased from zero to over 10 × 10¹² atom m^-2 during the last three decades. These distributions suggest that the bomb radiocarbon removed from the surface is currently accumulated with bomb ¹⁴C flux of over 1 × 10¹² atom m^-2yr^-1 below 25.4 in the subtropical region, mainly by advection from the higher latitude, and that part of the accumulated bomb ¹⁴C gradually spread southward with about 30 years.     

利用Argo 浮标资料研究西北太平洋三维声速分布特征

利用西北太平洋海区2002～2009年的Argo浮标剖面温度、盐度资料构建成0.5°×0.5°水平分辨率的三维声速网格化资料,并据此分析该海区声速的空间分布及季节变化特征。研究表明：该海区10 m层等声速线分布的季节变化较为明显,春、冬季的等声速线几乎与纬线平行,黑潮流经区域等声速线呈现一定的弯曲。100 m层等声速线分布的季节变化较小：北赤道流区,等声速线从外海向近岸延伸;吕宋岛东南部沿海,等声速线向南弯曲;吕宋岛、台湾岛东部等声速线呈现偏北方向的弯曲;琉球群岛附近,等声速线朝北偏东方向弯曲。此外,研究海区存在深海声道,声道轴最深的区域主要在吕宋海峡和日本东南部海区,其中吕宋海峡处的声道轴有显著的季节变化特征。可见,利用Argo浮标资料可以初步得到西北太平洋声速的空间分布及其季节变化特征,随着Argo剖面资料的增多,对该海区的声速场认识将会愈加清晰。     

Mantle plumes and the metamorphism of the lower crust and their influence on basin evolution

Since the stretching model appears to be not applicable to the subsidence of accretionary crust, basins located on this crust type may have an alternative origin. Examples of such basins are the West Siberia Basin and the North German Basin. Both basins showed intensive volcanism and magmatism during the initial phase of their development. Remarkably, the West Siberia Basin is closely located to the (hotspot related) Siberian flood basalts with a similar Permo-Triassic age, and the location of the North German Basin in Permian times is identical with the present day position of the Tibesti hotspot in Northern Africa. These two basins may have specific relations to hotspot heat sources of the Earth's underlying mantle. Due to these heat sources, thermal metamorphism within the lower layers of the (accretionary) crust may occur, resulting in rock density increase and subsequent shrinkage of the affected rock volumes. These shrinkage processes will lead to the development of topographic lows, their filling with sediments, and the subsequent start of an exponentially declining isostatic/metamorphic basin subsidence. In addition to the analyses of metamorphic processes, potential field anomalies, temperature fields, and histories of subsidence have been integrated into one single model that can explain the development of the North German Basin. Similarly, the East African Rift and Eifel Hotspots affected parts of the overriding continental plates. The East African Rift Hotspot can be traced back to the Afar flood basalts and the Dniepr–Donets Basin, whereas the Eifel Hotspot can be linked to the North Sea Basin. Continental drift templates, present day hotspot locations, flood basalt areas, metamorphic facies as function of temperature, and crust categories are taken as published in recent literature.     

Establishment and closure of the directed Florida whiting (Menticirrhus americanus) fishery and implications for North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) conservation and management

Today, ocean and coastal marine resource management is extremely complex. Marine resource managers are charged with conserving and managing many diverse species. Southern kingfish (Menticirrhus americanus), commonly known as whiting, are found from southern New England to Florida. During the fall through winter, western North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) are primarily found in the coastal nearshore waters off South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, overlapping the whiting's range and habitat.     

A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina

A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge.