2021年四川泸县M6.0地震发震机理及地震活动时空演化特征

2021年9月16日四川泸县发生M6.0地震, 该地震发震构造不明, 发震机理尚存在争议.地震精定位和震源机制有助于分析地震活动时空演化与震源破裂特征, 能够有效揭示活动构造机制和地震发生机理, 为评估区域地震危险性提供科学依据.为此, 本文首先采用双差定位法对震中及附近2009年1月至2021年10月发生的地震进行了精定位, 结果显示, 研究区地震震源深度大多集中在10 km范围内, 事件主要沿地表断层呈条带状或丛集分布, 部分震群邻近当地工业井, 周边无明显断层分布.其次, 通过CAP波形反演计算得到M≥3.5地震的震源机制解, 表明研究区震源破裂以逆冲挤压型为主, 部分震源机制解具有不确定性.基于震源机制解反演区域应力场, 进一步探讨了区域应力场与地震事件的力学一致性.研究结果显示, 区域应力场以水平构造挤压作用为主, 部分事件震源机制解与其吻合度较低, 暗示存在局部应力差异.综合地震活动时空演化特征、已知断层展布以及区域应力场等研究结果, 认为华蓥山断裂带南段的地震活动与资源开采活动密切相关, 泸县M6.0地震是在局部应力场扰动下, 下方滑脱层活动触发了上覆隐伏断层的挤压错动而产生.

     

TRIFFID observations of the cores of the three globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712

We present the results of TRIFFID simultaneous V - and B -band observations of the cores of the globular clusters M15, M92 and NGC 6712. A variability search of their dense centres was made feasible through performing post-exposure image sharpening on the images, increasing the image resolution by a factor of ∼2. The isis implementation of the image subtraction technique developed by Alard & Lupton was then used to detect flux variations in our image sets. We have obtained periods for all observable variables (in our field of view) in NGC 6712 and we have found two new RR Lyrae variables (an RRab and an RRc). We have confirmed three variables in our field of view of the M92. For M15, we detect 48 variables in our field of view, 23 of which are new discoveries. We obtain periods and amplitudes for all variables and classify new ones based on the light-curve shape, the most significant period and the mean magnitude in the V band. Among the detected RR Lyrae we find 19 RRc, 12 RRab and two RRd types. In the subsequent analysis we find a marked increase in RRc over RRab variables in the core. In a refined procedure to search for fainter objects we find no dwarf novae in our field of view of M15. Simulations performed on the data set to quantify our sensitivity to such objects indicate that an upper limit of 10 dwarf novae (at 92 per cent probability) exist in our field of view. The implications this result has on globular clusters are discussed.     

A detailed abundance analysis of the hot post-AGB star ZNG-1 in M10

We present a model-atmosphere analysis for the bright ( V ∼13) star ZNG-1, in the globular cluster M10. From high-resolution ( R ∼40 000) optical spectra we confirm ZNG-1 to be a post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) star. The derived atmospheric parameters are T _eff=26 500±1000 K and log  g =3.6±0.2 dex . A differential abundance analysis reveals a chemical composition typical of hot post-AGB objects, with ZNG-1 being generally metal poor, although helium is approximately solar. The most interesting feature is the large carbon underabundance of more than 1.3 dex. This carbon deficiency, along with an observed nitrogen enhancement relative to other elements, may suggest that ZNG-1 evolved off the AGB before the third dredge-up occurred. Also, iron depletions observed in other similar stars suggest that gas–dust fractionation in the AGB progenitor could be responsible for the observed composition of these objects. However, we need not invoke either scenario since the chemical composition of ZNG-1 is in good agreement with abundances found for a Population II star of the same metallicity.     

The mass of the Andromeda galaxy

This paper argues that the Milky Way galaxy is probably the largest member of the Local Group. The evidence comes from estimates of the total mass of the Andromeda galaxy (M31) derived from the three-dimensional positions and radial velocities of its satellite galaxies, as well as the projected positions and radial velocities of its distant globular clusters and planetary nebulae. The available data set comprises 10 satellite galaxies, 17 distant globular clusters and nine halo planetary nebulae with radial velocities. We find that the halo of Andromeda has a mass of together with a scalelength of 90 kpc and a predominantly isotropic velocity distribution. For comparison, our earlier estimate for the Milky Way halo is Although the error bars are admittedly large, this suggests that the total mass of M31 is probably less than that of the Milky Way . We verify the robustness of our results to changes in the modelling assumptions and to errors caused by the small size and incompleteness of the data set.
Our surprising claim can be checked in several ways in the near future. The numbers of satellite galaxies, planetary nebulae and globular clusters with radial velocities can be increased by ground-based spectroscopy, while the proper motions of the companion galaxies and the unresolved cores of the globular clusters can be measured using the astrometric satellites Space Interferometry Mission ( SIM ) and Global Astrometric Interferometer for Astrophysics ( GAIA ). Using 100 globular clusters at projected radii 20 R 50 kpc with both radial velocities and proper motions, it will be possible to estimate the mass within 50 kpc to an accuracy of 20 per cent. Measuring the proper motions of the companion galaxies with SIM and GAIA will reduce the uncertainty in the total mass caused by the small size of the data set to 22 per cent.     

2022年1月8日青海门源6.9级地震机器学习地震预警震级估计与现地阈值报警的回溯验证

2022年1月8日1时45分青海省海北州门源县发生6.9级地震, 周边地区普遍有感, 并导致多条高铁线路临时停运. 本文利用这次地震获取的大量烈度计加速度记录, 基于正在进行系统研发的机器学习地震预警方法模块, 对地震预警震级估计与现地阈值报警进行了回溯验证. 结果表明: 在地震发生后3.1 s, 震级估计为6.5级, 且震级估计误差不受信噪比和震中距变化的影响, 随着首台触发后时间的增加, 震级估计逐渐接近实际震级. 对于现地地震动速度峰值PGV(Peak Ground Velocity)预测, 各个台站在P波到达后3 s时, 预测PGV与观测PGV呈现1:1线性关系, 随着P波到达后时间窗的增加, 预测PGV逐步接近观测PGV, 且PGV预测误差不受信噪比和震中距变化的影响. 现地台站仪器烈度阈值设置为Ⅵ度时, 报警成功、误报、漏报的百分比分别为99.53%、0%、0.47%, 平均预警时间为19.62 s, 且地震烈度Ⅵ度区内没有发生误报和漏报; 现地台站仪器烈度阈值设置为Ⅶ度时, 报警成功、误报、漏报的百分比分别为99.77%、0%、0.23%, 平均预警时间为9.69 s, 且地震烈度Ⅶ度区内没有发生误报和漏报. 此次回溯验证结果表明: 机器学习方法在这次地震中可以得到鲁棒的震级估计和现地阈值报警结果, 并为该方法的在线测试以及中国地震预警系统升级提供可行性依据; 其次, 在这次地震事件中, 烈度计可为预警提供额外的作用, 这也为烈度计在未来地震预警的研究和应用中提供了更多的可能性.

     

新形势下测绘保密工作的思考

在《中华人民共和国测绘成果管理规定》及其相关的管理规定中 ,对基础测绘成果保密等级的划分、调整和解密都作了详细的规定。但是在新形势下 ,现行保密法规的对象发生了变化 ,传统的保密管理方式已不适用 ,因此 ,应在保守国家核心机密的前提下 ,重新审定各种地理信息产品的密级 ,最大限度地扩大流通服务范围 ,使地理信息能更多更好地为国民经济建设服务     

2003年6、7月西昌二次4.8级地震的预测与分析

2003年6月17日和7月10日,先后在四川省西昌市和西昌-昭觉间发生2次ML4 8级强有感地震.对于这2次地震,我们曾作了较好的中期和短期预测.但是对于6月17日发生的第一次ML4 8级地震,未能做出临震预测;对于第二次地震,则在7月1日向上级填报的周会商表中作了明确的临震预测,7月10日,在西昌-昭觉间发生了ML4.8级地震.根据西昌地震遥测台网各子台的P波初动求解震源机制,结合地震所处的地质构造以及现场烈度考察圈定出的结果分析,认为这二次地震是由安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂、凉山断裂所围成的凉山小菱形块体活动的结果.     

流动商贩的空间分布特征及与正规商业的分布关系——基于距离测度方法的数量研究

有关非正规经济的空间分布特征始终缺乏宏观维度的定量研究。本文利用数字化城市管理系统中的流动商贩数据和工商局登记的正规商业数据,通过DO指数和M函数,分别探究流动商贩的空间特征及其与正规商业的分布关系。研究发现：① 绝大多数类型的流动商贩及其占地面积具有显著集聚的空间格局;其中,与居民需求较为密切的商贩类型,集聚程度相对较低。② 相较于正规商业,流动商贩在极小的空间尺度上更为强烈地集聚分布;但随着尺度扩大,集聚程度呈快速衰减态势。③ 经营内容相近的流动商贩与正规商业之间表现出显著的互斥关系,而非共栖关系;且两者的互斥程度在较小的空间尺度上尤为强烈。由此,本研究证明设立摊贩疏导区具有可行性和必要性,并就设置的类型及原则提出了初步建议。