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201.
202.
The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO2 over China 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280,355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following land cover change. We also found increases in the maximum temperature and in the diurnal temperature range due to land cover change. Increases in CO2 affect both the maximum and minimum temperature so that changes in the diurnal range are small. Both land cover change and CO2 change also impact the frequency distribution of precipitation with increasing CO2 tending to lead to more intense precipitation and land cover change leading to less intense precipitation-indeed, the impact of land cover change typically had the opposite effect versus the impacts of CO2. Our results provide support for the inclusion of future land cover change scenarios in long-term transitory climate inodelling experiments of the 21st Century. Our results also support the inclusion of land surface models that can represent future land cover changes resulting from an ecological response to natural climate variability or increasing CO2. Overall, we show that land cover change can have a significant impact on the regional scale climate of China, and that regionally, this impact is of a similar magnitude to increases in CO2 of up to about 430 ppmv. This means that that the impact of land cover change must be accounted for in detection and attribution studies over China. 相似文献
203.
望儿山金矿浅部生产已接近尾声,其生产正向深部转移,但望儿山金矿深部地质条件十分复杂,为使其生产能更好的延续下去,通过对生产勘探的超前期限与范围合理性的研究和探讨,在总结前人经验的基础上,根据望儿山金矿实际,采用价值法的分析,得出其现有生产勘探合理的超前期限与范围. 相似文献
204.
Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Carlos Escalante-Sandoval 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(1):37-46
In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods
is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account
with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods.
In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed
for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method
is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site
quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters
are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important
to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations. 相似文献
205.
Mansoor Hamood Al-Harthy 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(4):305-312
Current practice shows that the use of portfolio and utility theory is very low among petroleum companies. This article advocates
the use of both portfolio theory and utility theory as decision-making tools to improve performance of oil and gas companies.
We introduce a model that can be practically used and applied in the oil and gas industry. This model generates an optimized,
efficient portfolio and, at the same time, enables the decision maker to incorporate his risk attitude and policy. This can
only be done by combining both the portfolio theory and utility theory through an approach called the utility mean-variance
model. A typical oil portfolio optimization problem is investigated by applying both portfolio and utility theories. Through
the utility mean-variance model, an efficient frontier that captures decision maker risk attitude is achieved. 相似文献
206.
本文首先回顾了价值链与全球生产系统的研究进展,结合跨国公司最新发展趋势对全球生产系统特征进行了总结;其次以改革开放以来上海对外贸易结构的改变,描述了90年代以来上海在全球生产系统分工中的变化,认为出口产品结构的转型并没有真正改变上海在国际劳动分工中处于低端环节的地位;最后就上海建设世界城市的差距与优势进行了总结,提出全球化发展的外部力量和地方化响应的内部力量将是上海发展世界城市的两个重要驱动力。 相似文献
207.
洞庭湖流域水生态系统服务功能经济价值研究 总被引:9,自引:2,他引:9
以洞庭湖流域水生态系统为例,在明确河湖库塘生态系统服务功能内涵的基础上,运用生态学与生态经济学方法对洞庭湖流域各类水生态系统服务功能经济价值进行了评估。结果表明,全流域河湖库塘水生态系统服务功能总价值量为1106.19亿元,约占湖南省2004年GDP(5612.26亿元)的19.7%,其中,城镇和农村生活供水、工农业生产供水、水力发电、内陆航运等直接利用价值为415.698亿元;调洪、输沙、水资源贮存等间接利用价值为690.492亿元。可以认为,流域水生态系统服务功能对湖南省工农业生产的持续发展,维系生态环境健康和人民生命财产安全起到了不可替代的支撑和保障作用。 相似文献
208.
The mean value concept in mono-linear regression of multi-variables and its application to trace studies in geosciences 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
A J T JULL 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(12):1828-1834
The "mean value concept" in a mono-linear regression of multi-variables is clarified.Its applications to reconstruction of the past 90-year salinity of the sea surface water in Xisha Islands and to tracing the past 80 ka paleo-geomagnetic events from the Luochuan loess 10Be record are introduced in detail,which show the significance and the potential of the "mean value concept" in geoscience research. 相似文献
209.
本文继续文献 [10 ]的工作 ,进一步讨论了测量平差 Gauss- Markov模型参数岭型广义逆估计的若干性质 ,如允许性、优效性、相对效率、抗干扰性等等 ,得到了许多重要结论。计算结果表明 ,在设计阵呈病态时 ,岭型广义逆估计确能明显改善 L S估计 相似文献
210.