Sensitivity of runoff and soil erosion to climate change in two Mediterranean watersheds. Part I: model parameterization and evaluation

Climate change is expected to effect storm runoff and erosion processes in Mediterranean watersheds at multiple spatial scales. Models are typically applied to estimate these impacts; however, the scarcity of spatially distributed data for parameterization, calibration and validation often prevents application of these models, particularly for larger catchments. This report, the first part of a two‐part article, presents an application and evaluation of the MEFIDIS model for two Mediterranean meso‐scale watersheds (115 and 290 km²) in a data‐scarce environment. A multi‐scale assessment method was used that combines quantitative validation and qualitative evaluation, consisting of three steps: (1) calibration at the small (field) scale using results from rainfall simulation experiments; (2) calibration and validation for catchment‐scale results while changing catchment‐scale parameters only (channel roughness and a parameter controlling the distribution of saturated areas); and (3) qualitative evaluation of within‐watershed erosion processes using empirical estimates of sediment delivery ratio and gully location. The results indicate that calibrating MEFIDIS at the field scale can provide reasonable results for catchment runoff and sediment export and for within‐watershed erosion processes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An experimental study of water table recharge by seepage losses from a ditch with intermittent flow

Farmed catchments in the Mediterranean area often exhibit dense networks of ditches which are also preferential zones of water table recharge, and thereby of groundwater contamination. This study presents an experimental analysis of seepage losses and related groundwater recharge patterns during a typical Mediterranean runoff event at the scale of a ditch located above a shallow water table. The objectives were (i) to evaluate the patterns of water table recharge by seepage in a ditch, (ii) to study the main flow processes occurring during recharge, and (iii) to estimate solute propagation in case of contaminated flow in the ditch. The field observation indicated three major points. Firstly, they showed that seepage losses during a runoff event in a ditch can rapidly lead to a significant recharge of a shallow water table. Secondly, the recharge induces a groundwater mound much larger than the event plume. The infiltrated water and the accompanying solutes remained in the vicinity of the ditch. The patterns of groundwater recharge and contamination appeared very different. Lastly, both unsaturated and saturated‐piston flow processes were observed which suggests that a variably‐saturated flow modelling approach ought to be used to simulate the ditch‐water shallow table interaction. Finally, the study indicates that the patterns of water table recharge and contamination in Mediterranean catchments with dense ditches network vary largely in space and time, and will require dense monitoring networks to estimate the evolution of the average contamination levels. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flood modelling using the distributed event-based SCS-LR model in the Mediterranean Real Collobrier catchment

ABSTRACT

Event-based models are often used for flood prediction because they require fewer data than more complex models and account for a small number of parameters. We present the performance of such a model in simulating Mediterranean floods, with a focus on the initialization and on the impact of the rainfall uncertainties on the calibration of the model. The distributed event-based parsimonious Soil Conservation Service Lag-and-Route (SCS-LR) model was applied in the Real Collobrier catchment, France, which has a very high density of raingauges. The initial condition of the model was highly correlated with predictors, such as baseflow or soil water content. A reduction in the raingauge density can markedly change the calibration of the model. As the density of raingauges is generally low in most catchments, the uncertainties associated with rainfall measurement are thus expected either to mask the actual accuracy of the model, or to alter the model parameters.     

Water repellency as run‐off and soil detachment controlling factor in a dry‐Mediterranean hillslope (South of Spain)

This study examines the effect of water repellency on controlling temporal variability of runoff generation mechanisms and soil detachment on metamorphic derived soils under dry‐Mediterranean climate. The research is carried out in an unburnt Mediterranean hillslope in souther Spain characterized by a patchy vegetation pattern and shallow soils. The Water Drop Penetration Time test (WDPT) is applied to measure water repellency at the end of summer (Sep‐2008), mid autumn (Nov‐2008) and mid winter (Feb‐2009). Rainfall simulations were used to obtain runoff generation and soil detachment in the same periods of time. The main shrub specie is Cistus monspeliensis which leaves a load of litter during the summer due to the lack of water. This great amount of organic material is accumulated under the shrubs triggering an extreme water repellence (WDPT > 6,000 s) that limits infiltration processes. This process is enforced due to the low soil water content at the end of dry season. Certain water repellency (WDPT > 1,500 s) is also observed on bare soil as consequence of their sandier texture and the accumulation of annual plants which die at the end of the wet season. Soil moisture increases during the autumn and water repellency disappears in both shrub and bare soil at the middle of the wet season (WDPT < 5 s). The main consequence is that the temporal trend of water repellency controls the mechanism and frequency of runoff generation and, hence, soil detachment. At the end of the summer, Hortonian mechanisms predominates when water repellency is extreme, even in soils under Cistus monspeliensis where runoff generation can reach higher peaks of overland flow and sediment concentration. Conversely, only the saturation of soil could generate runoff during the wet season being this quite less frequent in bare soil and absent in shrub. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating synoptic-scale climate signals for streamflow modelling over the Mediterranean region using machine learning models

ABSTRACT

Understanding streamflow patterns by incorporating climate signal information can contribute remarkably to the knowledge of future local environmental flows. Three machine learning models, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), the M5 Model Tree and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) are established to predict the streamflow pattern over the Mediterranean region of Turkey (Besiri and Baykan stations). The structure of the predictive models is built using synoptic-scale climate signal information and river flow data from antecedent records. The predictive models are evaluated and assessed using quantitative and graphical statistics. The correlation analysis demonstrates that the North Pacific (NP) and the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (Niño3.4) indices have a substantial influence on the streamflow patterns, in addition to the historical information obtained from the river flow data. The model results reveal the utility of the LSSVM model over the other models through incorporating climate signal information for modelling streamflow.     

Formation of methane in comet impacts: implications for Earth, Mars, and Titan

We calculate the amount of methane that may form via reactions catalyzed by metal-rich dust that condenses in the wake of large cometary impacts. Previous models of the gas-phase chemistry of impacts predicted that the terrestrial planets' atmospheres should be initially dominated by CO/CO₂, N₂, and H₂O. CH₄ was not predicted to form in impacts because gas-phase reactions in the explosion quench at temperatures ∼2000 K, at which point all of the carbon is locked in CO. We argue that the dust that condenses out in the wake of a large comet impact is likely to have very effective catalytic properties, opening up reaction pathways to convert CO and H₂ to CH₄ and CO₂, at temperatures of a few hundred K. Together with CO₂, CH₄ is an important greenhouse gas that has been invoked to compensate for the lower luminosity of the Sun ∼4 Gyr ago. Here, we show that heterogeneous (gas-solid) reactions on freshly-recondensed dust in the impact cloud may provide a plausible nonbiological mechanism for reducing CO to CH₄ before and during the emergence of life on Earth, and perhaps Mars as well. These encouraging results emphasize the importance of future research into the kinetics and catalytic properties of astrophysical condensates or “smokes” and also more detailed models to determine the conditions in impact-generated dust clouds.