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61.
Valry Ferber Jean-Claude Auriol Yu-Jun Cui Jean-Pierre Magnan 《Engineering Geology》2009,104(3-4):200-210
We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆmax, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an MS-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆmax,RP6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics. 相似文献
62.
Della K. Murton Steven M. Pawley Julian B. Murton 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2009,120(4):209-222
The sedimentary sequence through the Hemingbrough Formation exposed at two sites in the central part of the Vale of York, south of the Escrick moraine ridge, is described and used to reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental history of Glacial Lake Humber. Interbedded wave ripples and laminated silts and clays at both sites indicate that Lake Humber was characterised by fluctuating water levels, often no deeper than wave base. Optically stimulated luminescence ages of 21.0 ± 1.9, 21.9 ± 2.0, and 24.1 ± 2.2 kyr returned from two wave-rippled sandy beds within the glaciolacustrine sequence at Hemingbrough, c. 10 km south of the Escrick moraine ridge, provide the first direct chronological determination for the low-level phase of Lake Humber. As these beds are principally attributed to glacial meltwater emanating from the Vale of York ice lobe of the British Ice Sheet, when its margin was at or near the Escrick moraine ridge, this corroborates the interpretation that this ridge marks the LGM ice limit. 相似文献
63.
The maximum entropy method (MEM) is used here to get an insight into the electron density [ρ(r)] of phengites 2M
1 and 3T, paying special attention to the M1-formally empty site and charge distribution. Room temperature single crystal X-ray diffraction
data have been used as experimental input for MEM. The results obtained by MEM have been compared with those from conventional
structure refinement which, in turn, has provided the prior-electron density to start the entropy maximization process. MEM
reveals a comparatively non-committal approach, able to produce information related to the M1-site fractional occupancy, and
yields results consistent with those from the difference Fourier synthesis, but free of the uncertainties due to the abrupt
truncation of the series. The charge distribution is investigated by means of the notion of ‘‘site basin’’, i.e., those site-centered
volumes delimited by a surface such as ∇ρ·n = 0. In particular, we observe: (1) the overall partitioning of the basin total charge between cation and anion sites, and
the interlayer site charge seems to depend on sample composition, and (2) the apical-oxygen plane total basin charge and hydroxyl
basin charge are presumably related to the polytype. The MEM-determined electron density does not allow full exploration of
the critical points for very complex structures as micas, insofar as conventional room temperature experimental diffraction
data are used. 相似文献
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67.
基于青藏高原春季感热异常信号的中国东部夏季降水统计预测模型 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
使用1980-2014年由青藏高原中东部的地面气象观测台站观测资料计算得到的地表感热通量以及中国东部高分辨率的降水格点资料,在年代际变化和年际变率两个时间尺度上,使用最大协方差分析方法研究了青藏高原春季感热与中国东部夏季6、7和8月降水的关系,基于最大协方差关联因子的时间尺度分解回归分析方法建立了一个降水统计预测模型。青藏高原春季感热的各个关联预报因子与中国东部夏季各月降水的相关分析表明,在年代际成分中,6、7和8月在中国东部绝大部分地区均存在显著相关,方差贡献分别为75.6%、99.9%和79.7%;在年际成分中,相关区域在6月是华南地区、华北沿海地区和江淮流域,7月是华南地区西南部、长江流域、东北地区东南部和黄河中下游地区,8月是东北地区和华南地区西部,方差贡献分别为42.7%、43.4%和32.0%。预测模型的解释方差分析和后报试验检验表明,7月对整个中国东部地区预测效果最好,6月主要在长江以南地区,而8月主要在东北地区和华南地区西部预测效果较好。该预测模型能很好描述青藏高原春季感热与中国东部夏季各月降水的关联性,并对局地降水实现较好的定量预测,具有在短期气候预测业务应用的价值。 相似文献
68.
KEVIN KIERNAN 《The Australian geographer》1999,30(1):5-33
The easternmost extremity of the ice cap that developed in the Tasmanian Central Highlands during the time of most extensive Late Cainozoic glaciation lay on the doleritecapped Central Plateau east and north-east of Lake St Clair. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the more restricted ice cover included a small discrete ice cap (probably less than 250-300 m thick) that formed on the Central Plateau. The LGM ice limits on the southern part of the Central Plateau, including all five southern outlet valleys, are reported here. Earlier ice limits have been identified in two of these valleys, but on the plateau proper earlier glacial deposits have been generally extensively reworked beyond the LGM limit, such that confirmation of a glacial origin for diamictons on slopes is difficult. South of the plateau, the oldest deposits flooring lower reaches of two outlet valleys indicate that ice flowed southwards directly from the plateau, but later deposits indicate diffluent flow from the Derwent Glacier. 相似文献
69.
关于海岸带开发“稳健管理模型”的初步设想 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
海岸带可持续发展需要具有数据分析和决策的双重功能的计算机“稳健管理模型”。在技术上 ,该管理模型可利用地理信息系统和数据库技术 ,实现法律文件、区域性社会和经济发展规划、海岸带自然环境数据、以及土地利用现状资料的贮存和分析。然后通过一个决策软件 ,将有关资料转化为可持续发展的若干条最大容量规则 ;该软件以海岸带开发项目所需的必要条件为输入参数 ,通过内部一致性检验确定这些条件是否符合可持续发展规则 ,从而对待开发项目作出批准与否的管理决策。随着计算机技术的发展 ,开发这样一个稳健管理模型的时机已经成熟。 相似文献
70.
V.M. Silbergleit 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1999,43(2):194-200
Geomagnetically disturbed periods, characterized by the maximum average 24-hour global disturbances are considered. Gumbel's first asymptotic distribution of extreme values is used to predict the occurrence of major magnetic storm periods. A geomagnetic storm similar to the one recorded on March 13 - 14, 1998, would be expected to occur within the next 13 solar cycles. The present analysis corroborates the substantial increase of the level of magnetic disturbances from solar cycle to solar cycle. 相似文献