喀什地区1961—2010年最大冻土深度变化

利用1961～2010年喀什地区所属喀什市、莎车县、巴楚县、塔什库尔干县等4个代表性站50a的年最大冻土深度、冬季平均气温、极端最低气温、极端最低地温等资料,采用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率方法,对1961年以来喀什地区最大冻土深度变化进行了分析。结果表明,喀什地区平原多年平均最大冻土深度为48.1 cm,年际最大值与最小值深度差为82cm,随年际变化总体呈明显的减小趋势,其变化倾向率为-3.8cm/10a,年代际变化呈阶梯状逐渐减小,冻土深度减小主要受冬季平均气温升高的影响,气温每升高1℃,冻土深度减小7.75 cm;山区多年平均最大冻土深度为148.8cm,年际最大值与最小值深度差为88cm,随年际变化总体呈明显的减小趋势,其变化倾向率为-2.5cm/10a。     

The Last Glacial Maximum in the North Sea Basin: micromorphological evidence of extensive glaciation

Despite a long history of investigation, critical issues regarding the last glacial cycle in northwest Europe remain unresolved. One of these refers to the extent, timing and dynamics of Late Devensian/Weichselian glaciation of the North Sea Basin, and whether the British and Scandinavian ice sheets were confluent at any time during this period. This has been the result of the lack of the detailed sedimentological data required to reconstruct processes and environment of sediments recovered through coring. This study presents the results of seismic, sedimentological and micromorphological evidence used to reconstruct the depositional processes of regionally extensive seismic units across the North Sea Basin. Thin section micromorphology is used here to provide an effective means of discriminating between subglacial and glacimarine sediments from cored samples and deriving process‐based interpretations from sediment cores. On the basis of micromorphology, critical formations from the basin have been reinterpreted, with consequent stratigraphic implications. Within the current stratigraphic understanding of the North Sea Basin, a complex reconstruction is suggested, with a minimum of three major glacial episodes inferred. On at least two occasions during the Weichselian/Devensian, the British and Scandinavian ice sheets were confluent in the central North Sea. Whilst micromorphology can provide much greater confidence in the interpretation of Late Quaternary offshore stratigraphic sequences, it is noted that a much better geochronology is required to resolve key stratigraphic issues between the onshore and offshore stratigraphic records. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fossil hyrax dung and evidence of Late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation types in the Namib Desert

Pollen was derived from fossil dung of herbivorous hyraxes, deposited in a rock shelter on the highest mountain in Namibia, Dâures or Brandberg, situated on the Namib Desert margin. Radiocarbon dating ranging in age between modern times and 30 000 yr BP showed it represents the first empirical pollen evidence of continental palaeovegetation during the Late Pleistocene along the western escarpment of southern Africa. The initial results indicate Last Glacial Maximum vegetation differed totally from the current pattern as vegetation types were dominated by small Asteraceae shrubs, in contrast to those of the Holocene and modern times which show more succulents, grass and woody elements (arboreal pollen). The results suggest that Cape floral communities did not reach into the tropics along the western escarpment of Africa, despite such pollen types occurring in marine cores. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Air–Sea Exchange due to Calcium Carbonate and Organic Matter Storage,and its Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle

Release of CO₂ from surface ocean water owing to precipitation of CaCO₃ and the imbalance between biological production of organic matter and its respiration, and their net removal from surface water to sedimentary storage was studied by means of a quotient θ = (CO₂ flux to the atmosphere)/(CaCO₃ precipitated). θ depends not only on water temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration but also on the CaCO₃ and organic carbon masses formed. In CO₂ generation by CaCO₃ precipitation, θ varies from a fraction of 0.44 to 0.79, increasing with decreasing temperature (25 to 5°C), increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration (195–375 ppmv), and increasing CaCO₃ precipitated mass (up to 45% of the initial DIC concentration in surface water). Primary production and net storage of organic carbon counteracts the CO₂ production by carbonate precipitation and it results in lower CO₂ emissions from the surface layer. When atmospheric CO₂ increases due to the ocean-to-atmosphere flux rather than remaining constant, the amount of CO₂ transferred is a non-linear function of the surface layer thickness because of the back-pressure of the rising atmospheric CO₂. For a surface ocean layer approximated by a 50-m-thick euphotic zone that receives input of inorganic and organic carbon from land, the calculated CO₂ flux to the atmosphere is a function of the CaCO₃ and C_org net storage rates. In general, the carbonate storage rate has been greater than that of organic carbon. The CO₂ flux near the Last Glacial Maximum is 17 to 7×10¹² mol/yr (0.2–0.08 Gt C/yr), reflecting the range of organic carbon storage rates in sediments, and for pre-industrial time it is 38–42×10¹² mol/yr (0.46–0.50 Gt C/yr). Within the imbalanced global carbon cycle, our estimates indicate that prior to anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ to the atmosphere the land organic reservoir was gaining carbon and the surface ocean was losing carbon, calcium, and total alkalinity owing to the CaCO₃ storage and consequent emission of CO₂. These results are in agreement with the conclusions of a number of other investigators. As the CO₂ uptake in mineral weathering is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, the CO₂ weathering pathway that originates in the CO₂ produced by remineralization of soil humus rather than by direct uptake from the atmosphere may reduce the relatively large imbalances of the atmosphere and land organic reservoir at 10²–10⁴-year time scales.     

北京夏季日最大电力负荷预报模型建立方法探讨

为了探索夏季(6～8月)日气象负荷的最佳分离方式和引起日最大电力负荷波动的主要因子,以及建立预报模型最佳个数,基于北京市2005～2010年逐日最大电力负荷和同期的气象资料,分析了北京地区日最大电力负荷的变化规律,采用不同方法将气象负荷从夏季日最大电力负荷中分离出来,分析北京夏季气象负荷与气温、相对湿度、降水及炎热指数、高温持续日数、炎热日数持续时间、前一日气象负荷等因子之间的关系,并基于2005～2009年夏季逐日气象负荷和其主要影响因子采用逐步回归方法建立日最大电力负荷的预报模型,将2010年夏季北京日最大电力负荷作为预报效果的独立样本检验。结果显示:2005～2010年,北京逐日最大电力负荷具有明显的线性增长趋势,夏季日最大电力负荷具有显著的星期效应;与去掉逐年夏季日最大电力负荷趋势和夏季平均日最大电力负荷趋势相比,去掉全年逐日最大电力负荷变化趋势的夏季日气象负荷预报模型的拟合能力更优;北京夏季日气象负荷与当日气温的相关系数最高,与前一日气象负荷也关系密切;利用前一日相对气象负荷和当日气象要素一周逐日分别建立预报模型的拟合和预测效果较好。     

近46年来华东及周围地区最高与最低气温时空演变的气候特征

选用华东及周围地区157个气象观测站1960-2005年6~8月逐日最高、 最低气温资料, 利用分段线性突变检验、 EOF分解等方法, 分析了我国华东地区最高, 最低气温的空间分布及时间演变特征。结果表明： 高温主要出现在长江以南; 长江以北夏季气温分布受地形影响显著。最高气温分布具有良好的空间一致性, 主要受大尺度天气系统影响; 最低气温更多表现出局地变化特征; 华东夏季最高、 最低气温分布形态较为类似, 有“全区一致型”和“南北反向型”两种, 1980年是夏季气温的一个突变点。1980年以前, 最高、 最低气温都呈下降趋势; 1980年以后则呈升温趋势; 最高气温的演变以“高温-低温-高温”的年代际振荡为主, 极端高温主要发生在两个时段： 第一次在1960-1965年之间; 第二次在2000年以后, 而极端最低气温以升温趋势为主。     

COMPRESSION OF nth-ORDER DATA ARRAYS BY B-SPLINES.PART 1:THEORY

For efficient handling of very large data arrays,pretreatment by compression is mandatory.In the presentpaper B-spline methods are described as good candidates for such data array compression.Themathematical relation between the maximum entropy method for compression of data tables andthe B-spline of zeroth degree is described together with the generalization of B-spline compression tonth-order data array tables in matrix and tensor algebra.     

A study on the limit void ratio characteristics of medium to fine mixed graded sands

The minimum and maximum void ratios, corresponding to states of densest and loosest packing, of 111 systematically prepared mixed graded sand samples are determined with Method 2A and Method B according to ASTM D 4253 and ASTM D 4254 standards, respectively. Although, those standards are applicable to soils that may contain up to at most 15% fines content, for the harmony of the results even for samples having fines content greater 15%, no other methods are used throughout the experimental program. The test results show that 3rd degree polynomial equations derived from existing experimental data, as a function of packing material percentage, are quite reasonable (R² ≈ 1.0) to estimate the variation of minimum and maximum void ratios for the sands considered. Furthermore, error analysis of the limit void ratios is also carried out. It is found that predictability of maximum void ratio for the soil types and gradations considered is more accurate than that of minimum void ratio.     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.