稳健估计方法提高数据处理精度

介绍了近代平差理论的稳健估计方法,编制稳健估计方法的程序,并通过实例验证,与最小二乘估计进行比较,表明稳健估计在水准网粗差探测和平差计算中优于最小二乘估计方法,并且能够定位粗差,从而进行消除或者减弱,得到较为干净的观测值。因此,稳健估计方法应用于测量平差具有一定的抵抗粗差的能力,从而可以提高数据处理的精度。     

铜街子电站水库诱发地震的判定及最大可能诱发地震震级的估计

对于水库围堰后猛然增加的地震活动，人们普遍关心两个问题，第一是这些地震的成因，第二是这些地震能对大坝安全性带来多大的影响。位于四川省乐山地区的铜街子电站在蓄水后地震活动骤然增高。本文通过对地震活动的分布范围、震源深度、震源机制解以及地震活动与库水水位变化之间的关系判定这些地震系铜街子电站蓄水后所诱发的地震。为了估计该水库所诱发地震的震级上限，本文通过定性预测方法和定量预测方法试图对诱震震级上限给出一个估计，但各手段所给出的结果却不完全一致，这说明目前的预测手段的不完善。在对各手段给出的结果进行综合分析之后，认为铜街子电站最大可能诱发地震震级上限在５．０级左右。当然，也可能以较小震级的震群型形式出现。     

Estimation of maximum scour depth around bridge piers under ice-covered conditions using data-driven methods

The scouring around bridge foundations is a significant concern in civil engineering.Several research has been conducted experimentally and numerically to study the maximum scour depth around the foun-dations of a bridge in open channel conditions.In cold regions,where ice forms on lakes,reservoirs,and rivers,the interaction between ice and hydraulic structures is further complicated.The flow distribution varies significantly leading to deeper and larger scouring around bridge foundations.The present study took advantage of the data-driven methods to investigate the impacts of ice conditions to maximum scour depth.In total,96 datasets were extracted from previous studies.The M5 decision tree,Genetic Expression Programming(GEP),and Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO)were used in data analysis.The models were developed using the train-and-test approach to avoid over-training.The mentioned developed models were further compared with a previous empirical equation associated with the pre-diction of maximum scour depth around piers under ice conditions.Finally,a sensitivity analysis method was applied to evaluate the performance of the data-driven models.It was found that the approaching velocity and pier diameter play the most crucial role in determination of the maximum scour depth.The result is generally in agreement with those of previous experimental studies.     

L∞估计的方法研究

讨论了 L∞ 估计的基本原理 ,提出了利用线性规划来求解 L∞ 估计问题的方法 ,并且依据线性规划的对偶原理给出了求解问题的实用方法。     

直接基于位移的结构抗震设计理论研究进展

直接基于位移的抗震设计是实现基于性能抗震设计思想的一条有效途径,其理论主要包括三方面的内容,即直接基于位移的抗震设计方法、位移需求估计方法和目标位移的确定。本文在阅读了大量文献的基础上,对国内外在这三方面的研究进行了介绍,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

基于Hv方法的三轴液压振动系统频响函数估计的研究

三轴液压振动系统是实验室内模拟振动环境的主要设备,其主要功能是精确地复现给定的功率谱和时间历程.振动控制技术是实现这一目标的关键技术,它以频响函数估计为基础.频响函数估计的精度影响控制过程的快速性和稳定性.本文对几种典型的频响函数估计方法进行了分析,针对传统方法精度低且受到矩阵病态条件约束等缺点,应用特征分析与摄动理论构造了一种多入多出的Hv方法,并且应用三轴液压振动系统的实测数据对其进行了检验.结果表明该方法是适用的.     

Evaluation and comparison of spatial interpolators II

The performance of several variations on ordinary kriging and inverse distance estimators is evaluated. Mean squared errors (MSE) were calculated for estimates made on multiple resamplings from five exhaustive data bases representing two distinctly different types of estimation problem. Ordinary kriging, when performed with variograms estimated from the sample data, was more robust than inverse-distance methods to the type of estimation problem, and to the choice of estimation parameters such as number of neighbors.Notice: Although the research described in this article has been funded in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through Cooperative Agreement CR818526 to the Harry Reid Center for Environmental Studies, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, it has not been subjected to Agency review. Therefore it does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.     

基于改进果蝇算法的非线性模型参数估计方法

在对基本果蝇优化算法的寻优流程进行深入分析的基础上,提出一种单方向搜索处理的改进果蝇优化算法（IFOA）。该方法可以对极值点为非零非负的非线性函数进行优化处理,将其应用于非线性模型参数估计。实例表明,IFOA方法在参数估计精度上优于线性近似法与非线性迭代方法;与以遗传算法为代表的智能搜索方法相比,其估计精度相当,并具有参数设置少、寻优过程简单、易于程序实现等优点。     

AUV地形匹配导航快速收敛滤波

地形匹配定位（terrain aided position,TAP）的似然函数反映了AUV（autonomous underwater vehicle）的位置在空间中的分布概率,由于地形的强非线性、随机性以及测量误差的非高斯分布使得似然函数也表现出非高斯分布的特点。TAP的误差与局部地形特征和地形测量误差密切相关,由于现有的方法未考虑局部地形特征,仅考虑了测量误差的统计置信区间,使得TAP置信区间的估计结果明显偏小。为解决TAP置信区间的估计问题,建立了TAP定位点的跳变模型。设TAP定位点X^p可以向搜索区间内任一点跳变,且向某一点的跳变概率与该点的似然函数值正相关,X^p向某一点跳变的置信度小于α时,认为x^α不会向该点跳变,该点设为置信区间的边界点。另外,设地形匹配定位点的置信区间内匹配残差平方和函数为二次曲面,而X^p视为该曲面的待估计参数,则可以通过曲面参数的置信区间估计方法获得1-α置信度下的置信区间。新方法得到的置信区间范围大于现有的估计方法,试验结果表明,测量波束较少时,置信区间估计会出现异常,增加测量波束可以提高潮差和测量误差的估计精度,从而提高置信区间的估计精度,但测量误差非高斯分布条件下的补偿方法仍然需要进一步研究。     

蒙古国中东部地区2006-2015年产草量遥感估算研究

Mongolia is an important part of the Belt and Road Initiative “China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor” and a region that has been severely affected by global climate change. Changes in grassland production have had a profound impact on the sustainable development of the region. Our study explored an optimal model for estimating grassland production in Mongolia and discovered its temporal and spatial distributions. Three estimation models were established using a statistical analysis method based on EVI, MSAVI, NDVI, and PsnNet from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data and measured data. A model evaluation and accuracy comparison showed that an exponential model based on MSAVI was the best simulation (model accuracy 78%). This was selected to estimate the grassland production in central and eastern Mongolia from 2006 to 2015. The results show that the grassland production in the study area had a significantly fluctuating trend for the decade study; a slight overall increasing trend was observed. For the first five years, the grassland production decreased slowly, whereas in the latter five years, significant fluctuations were observed. The grassland production (per unit yield) gradually increased from the southwest to northeast. In most provinces of the study area, the production was above 1000 kg ha ^-1, with the largest production in Hentiy, at 3944.35 kg ha ^-1. The grassland production (total yield) varied greatly among the provinces, with Kent showing the highest production, 2341.76×10 ⁴ t. Results also indicate that the trend in grassland production along the China-Mongolia railway was generally consistent with that of the six provinces studied.