Quantification of the magnitude of net erosion in the southwest Barents Sea using sonic velocities and compaction trends in shales and sandstones

During specific intervals within Mesozoic and Cenozoic times, several areas of the southwestern Barents Sea were subjected to uplift and erosion. Areas with missing shallow stratigraphic interval sections and major erosion can be seen at several places along interpreted regional profiles in the southwestern Barents Sea. A new Normal Compaction Trend (NCT) for two selected shale– and sandstone–dominated lithologies has been constructed based on sonic logs in the southwestern Barents Sea. The shale– dominated NCT is calibrated to the Cretaceous shales in the northern North Sea and Norwegian Sea and applied to the Cretaceous shales of the Barents Sea. The sandstone–dominated NCT is calibrated to the Lower Jurassic Åre Formation of the Norwegian Sea and applied to the Lower Jurassic–Upper Triassic coastal plain section in the Barents Sea. By utilising the NCT model, the study estimates net apparent erosion in 28 selected Barents Sea wells based on comparison of sonic log velocities. A net apparent erosion map of the study area was constructed by gridding of the well values. The accuracy of the map is limited in areas with little well control, such as in the northwest, where the east–west transition into the southwestern Barents Sea region is poorly constrained. With that in mind, the map clearly shows two regional trends which dominate the erosion pattern in the study area; an increasing amount of erosion towards the north and a sharp decrease of erosion westwards of the hinge zone into the southwestern Barents Sea. The highest erosion estimates are observed towards Svalbard, with values up to 2500 m. The results of this study can be further utilized in petroleum system studies in the eroded areas.     

A one-dimensional integral approach to calculating the failure probability of geotechnical engineering structures

This study focuses on the geotechnical engineering structures with implicit or unknown expressions of performance functions. A one-dimensional integral approach (ODIA) consisting of sampling, evaluation of statistical moments for multivariable functions, probability density function fitting, and simple integration of failure probability was developed through system integration. A convergence study of an illustrative example was conducted, and the error analysis revealed that the accuracy of ODIA is equivalent to that of the second-order reliability method. Applications of ODIA to a slope and surrounding rock of an excavation were presented to further confirm the accuracy, efficiency, and practicability of the approach.     

基于粘弹库仑应力变化的后续最大地震震级估计及2008、2014年于田两次7.3级地震之间的关系讨论

在前人关于于田地区地壳水平分层模型研究的基础上,结合于田台GPS连续观测资料粗略确定各层的粘滞系数。基于粘弹水平分层模型,分别计算了2008、2014年两次于田7.3级地震的粘弹同震库仑应力变化。基于粘弹库仑应力变化,采用“直接”余震频次的计算方法,计算了区域范围内与主震同震库仑应力变化直接相关的理论地震频次。提出基于理论与实际地震频次对比以及理论与实际地震频次-距离衰减曲线拟合残差对比估计与主震同震库仑应力变化直接相关的后续最大地震震级的方法。不同方法的计算结果显示,与2008年于田7.3级地震同震库仑应力变化直接相关的最大后续地震震级为MS7.2~7.5,而2014年于田7.3级地震的估计为MS6.3。前者与2014年于田地震7.3的震级非常接近。由于震级相同、空间距离较近、时间间隔较短、区域外力作用相同、两次地震构造关联性较强且具有较明确的应力相互作用,因而认为2008、2014年两次7.3级地震构成一对广义的双震型地震,这与该区域以往序列类型特点相吻合。对震级下限及G-R关系b值对结果的影响进行了初步讨论,结果显示,当粘弹同震库仑应力变化确定之后,震级下限对后续最大地震震级估计影响不大,但G-R关系b值对结果有较大影响。     

Simulated effects of cropland expansion on seasonal temperatures over China

Human activities result in deforestation, expansion of cropland, grassland degradation, urbanization and other large-scale land use/cover change; among these, cropland expansion is one of the most important processes. To understand the effects of cropland expansion on seasonal temperatures over China, two 21-year simulations (spanning January 1, 1980–December 31, 2000), using the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS 2.0), were performed. The two simulations comprised current realistic land use/cover patterns and the previous vegetation cover without crop expansion, to investigate the impact of crop expansion on seasonal temperatures over China. The results showed that due to cropland expansion: (1) the most obvious changes occurred in the maximum temperatures, followed by the mean surface air temperatures, and the minimum temperatures were the least affected; (2) the summer mean maximum temperatures decreased in most parts of eastern China, and the temperatures changed significantly in most parts of northeast China, north China and central China (p < 0.05); (3) the surface air temperatures, maximum temperatures and minimum temperatures in summer decreased in the different regions by between −0.03 and −0.76 °C (the greatest temperature changes occurred in southwest China, and the smallest were in northeast China); (4) the net radiation flux and latent heat flux increased, while the sensible flux decreased, when semi-desert vegetation was replaced by dry land crops, in both summer and winter seasons, and the converse occurred when irrigated crops were replaced by dry land crops. In addition, the net radiation flux and sensible heat flux decreased, and the latent heat flux increased when short grass and tall grass were replaced dry land crops, as well as when dry land crops were replaced by irrigated crops.     

Characteristics and runoff volume of the Yangtze River paleo-valley at Nanjing reach in the Last Glacial Maximum

The stratigraphical cross-sections of the Yangtze River incised-valley near the No.1, No.3 and No.4 Nanjing Yangtze River bridges were established with respective bore date and documents. By 14C age analysis of the samples of four drilling cores near the No.4 Bridge (to be built), we can find that the time range of paleo-valley is dated in the LGM at a depth of –60 m to –90 m near Nanjing. It is also indicated that the deep incised-valley channel was narrow and the river flowed swiftly. The ancient Yangtze River deep channel presented partially and deeply incised features near the No.1 Bridge. According to previous publications, much research has been done on the main paleo-channel of the Yangtze River, but few results have been achieved on discharge estimation. In this paper, the incipient velocity and average velocity of the LGM was calculated with Vc = 4.60d1/3h1/ 6, 95 Vc 1.28lg 13.15. h . gd , d ? ? = ? ? ? ? 1 6 * 90 V 6.5u h d ≈ , etc., in terms of the river shape, sedimentary grain size and sequences near the No.3 and No.1 bridges. Moreover, the discharge in Nanjing reach of the Yangtze River during the LGM has been estimated to be around 12,000–16,000 m3/s according to the relationship of discharge, velocity of flow and cross-section.     

末次盛冰期太平洋赤道辐合带对暖池外热带海表温度变化的敏感性

利用美国NCAR CAM3大气环流模式,分析了末次盛冰期（LGM）两个不同的热带海表温度重建方案中,北半球冬季热带中、西太平洋对流活动及大气环流对暖池外（赤道东太平洋和热带大西洋）热带SST异常的敏感性。结果表明：  1）SST异常首先引起大气环流的改变。  赤道东太平洋对流层下沉增强,而作为经向补偿,副热带东太平洋上升运动增强,其中南半球尤为明显,同时南半球热带中、西太平洋上升运动增强,加剧了该区纬向逆时针环流,说明冰期热带海气耦合过程受气候背景场（如SST）影响很大;   2）大气环流格局改变引起热带中西太平洋的大气加热、对流活动、表层风场及降雨的巨大变化。  140°E以西的婆罗洲和菲律宾区域,总的大气加热减少是由于对流与辐射加热减少所致,对应于该区风场辐散和降雨减少;   而140°E以东的南半球热带中、西太平洋,大气吸收热量增加,对流与辐射加热均增强,总降雨量也随之增加,反映该区赤道辐合带南移并增强。该项研究为探索热带太平洋在冰期/间冰期旋回中的古海洋学变化提供了新的数据支撑。此外,不同重建SST对赤道辐合带的影响比较大,因此利用重建SST进行数值模拟或者利用耦合模式研究LGM热带海气相互作用时,应该十分重视全球热带SST分布特征。     

2001年1月26日高纬磁层顶通量管事件的观测研究--空间电流密度计算及分析

讨论了三种根据Cluster Ⅱ四颗卫星的磁场测量数据计算空间电流的方法及其误差,论证了这几种方法的内在一致性,并得到了完全相同的计算结果. 进而依据Cluster Ⅱ 磁场探测资料,计算了2001年1月26日多重磁通量管和FTE事件中高纬磁层顶边界层和磁鞘区的电流密度. 结果表明,磁通量管内电流密度较大,可达到约10-8A/m2;计算精度较高,结果可靠. 本文还应用最小方差分析法（MVA）,发现电流方向与通量管的轴向基本一致;论证了电流MVA分析在研究通量管性质时的作用,同时提出了电流管的概念.     

Trend analysis using nonhomogeneous stochastic diffusion processes. Emission of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>; Kyoto protocol in Spain

In this study, we propose a methodology to analyse the gradual secular trends present in the time evolution of certain endogenous variables, which are of particular interest in environmental research. This methodology is based on modelling such variables by nonhomogeneous stochastic diffusion processes, the trend functions of which may be made to depend on other, exogenous, variables, which are controllable and which affect and model, in turn, the possible irregularities of such trends. The methodology is applied to analyse the evolution of the emission of CO₂ in Spain, and it is shown that the evolution of the Spanish GDP affects the trend component. These circumstances are considered in the context of Spain’s non-compliance with the Kyoto protocol on controlling the emission of greenhouse gases.     

Aqueous sulfur speciation possibly linked to sublimnic volcanic gas-water interaction during a quiescent period at Yugama crater lake,Kusatsu–Shirane volcano,Central Japan

After the phreatic eruption in 1982–83, volcanic activities at Kusatsu–Shirane volcano had been decreasing and reached a minimum in 1990, had turned to a temporal rise in activity up to 1994 and then decreased again at least up to 1997. During this low-activity period we observed a relatively short (≤ 1 y) cyclic variation in polythionates (PT) in the Yugama lake water. Spectral power density analysis of the PT time-series by an autoregressive (maximum entropy spectral estimation, MESE) method indicates that the major frequency in the PT variations is 1.0 y^− 1 and the minor is 2–3 y^− 1 (1.0 and 0.3–0.5 y in periodicity, respectively). Annual variations in the lake temperature are ruled out for explaining these periodicities. We attribute these cyclic variations to a cyclic magnification-reduction in meteoric-water injection into a hydrothermal regime where volcanic gases from cooling magma bodies at depth and cooler oxidized groundwater come into contact with each other. This interaction may result in a periodical change in the composition and flux of SO₂ and H₂S gases being discharged into the lake and forming PT. From a phase deviation (2–3 months) in the cycles between the annual precipitation, including snowmelt, and the PT time-series, we estimated the maximal depth of a hydrothermal reservoir beneath the lake assuming a vertical hydraulic conductivity (5 × 10^− 3 cm/s) of the volcanic detritus around the summit hydrothermal system. Chloride in the lake water reached a maximum 1.5 years faster than PT. This is most likely due to a gradual elevation of the potentiometric front of a concentrated sublimnic solution in the hydrothermal reservoir. Variations of dissolved SO₂ and H₂S in the lake water were not consistent with those of the fumarolic gases on the north flank of the volcano. This fact together with additional observations strongly suggests that these fumaroles may have the same origin but are chemically modified by a subsurface aquifer. The PT monitoring at active crater lakes during a quiescent period can provide insight into the annual expansions and reductions of a volcano-hosted hydrothermal reservoir.     

青海高原近40年来最高和最低温度变化趋势的初步分析

利用青海１９５９￣１９９６年月平均最高、最低气温以及总云量和日照时数等资料,在剔除台站迁移较大的站点之后,对青海高原近４０年来最高和最低温度的变化特征及其与云量和日照时数的关系进行了初步分析。结果发现,近４０年来青海高原最高气温秋冬季为弱的升温趋势,春季则为明显的降温趋势。最低气温各季都为升温趋势,秋、冬季最为明显,春、夏次之。无论最高、最低或是平均温度的变化趋势,都是高海拔地区（３０００ｍ以上）