神秘的109.4°——共轭变形带的夹角

塑性力学的滑移线理论、Watterson零伸长度理论和最大有效力矩准则均获得共轭变形带的夹角为109.4°.该值与黄金规则相容,然而,滑移线理论的预测值面对伸长方向,与实际不符.零伸长度理论所预测的109.4°,不能解释实际观察到的平面共轭剪切带.根据最大有效力矩准则理论,预测韧性变形域共轭变形带面对主压应力方向或瞬时最小伸长度方向的夹角为109.4°.迄今获得的全部野外观测值和岩石力学实验结果均位于该预测值的±20°范围内,证明最大有效力矩准则的有效性.最大有效力矩准则可解释或求解:1)折劈理的形成,2)大型低角度正断层和高角度逆冲断层的形成,3)地震反射剖面中的鳄鱼嘴构造,4)变质结晶基底的基本构造型式--菱网状韧性剪切带,5)拆离褶皱的形成,6)古主应力和相关的运动学涡度.     

Hazard rate estimation of a mixture model with censored lifetimes

This paper is intended to compare the hazard rate from the Bayesian approach with the hazard rate from the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) method. The MLE of a parameter is appropriate as long as there are sufficient data. For various reasons, however, sufficient data may not be available, which may make the result of the MLE method unreliable. In order to resolve the problem, it is necessary to rely on judgment about unknown parameters. This is done by adopting the Bayesian approach. The hazard rate of a mixture model can be inferred from a method called Bayesian estimation. For eliciting a prior distribution which can be used in deriving a Bayesian estimate, a computerized-simulation method is introduced. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the potential benefits of the Bayesian approach.     

Paleoproductivity evolution off central Chile from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Early Holocene

A geochemical and paleontological reconstruction of paleoproductivity, upwelling intensity and sea surface temperature (SST) off central Chile at 35°S (GeoB3359-3) reveals marked changes from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) through the Early Holocene. Surface-water productivity was determined by the interaction between the atmospheric (the Southern Westerlies) and oceanographic (the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, ACC) systems from the LGM through early Termination I (TI). The northward shift of the climate zones during the LGM brought the ACC, as the main macronutrient source, closer to the GeoB3359-3, SST lowered, and surface water productivity and accumulation rates of biogenic components enhanced. With the poleward return of the Southern Westerlies and the ACC, the subtropical high-pressure system became the dominant atmospheric component southward till 35°S during the late TI and Early Holocene and caused surface water productivity to increase through enhanced upwelling.     

A novel high-resolution small ion spectrometer to study ion nucleation of aerosols in ambient indoor and outdoor air

An electrically based ion spectrometer is described, capable of measuring particle sizes and mobilities from molecular ions (small ions) to aerosol particles across a size range of 0.4 to 30 nm in diameter. It consists of a single cylindrical capacitor divided into three electrically insulated sections. The current arriving at the central section is measured by an electrometer and represents the ion flux over a known range of mobilities determined by the applied voltage. The applied voltage is scanned in steps to measure the ion fluxes over a large number of overlapping mobility ranges. The recorded signal and the response function of the instrument are unfolded using a maximum entropy procedure to give a high-resolution measured mobility spectrum. The maximum entropy approach offers a considerable improvement over traditional aspiration collectors and can approach the resolution of a drift tube system. In this way, the spectrometer successfully overcomes the diffusion limit to small ion resolution. Illustrative spectra are shown, demonstrating for the first time the presence of some resolved structure within the small ion spectrum at the highest mobilities. It is demonstrated that the actual mobility spectrum of small ions falls in the range 0.8–2.0 × 10⁻⁴ m² V⁻¹ s⁻¹. This represents a narrower range than that previously measured which is attributed to improved spectral resolution in the present work.     

New evidence on the sequence of deglacial warming in the tropical Indian Ocean

The transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene was an internal of climate variability that was characterised by large spatial and temporal variations. Here we show that deglaciation warming in the northern Indian Ocean was initiated ca. 19 ka, which is contemporary with deglaciation warming in the Antarctica and Southern Ocean. A gradual warming occurred during the glacial/Holocene transition in the northern Indian Ocean, unlike the two‐step warming seen in Greenland and the North Atlantic. Synchronous deglacial warming ca. 19 ka in Antarctica and the northern Indian Ocean suggests a strong connection in the propagation of climate signals between Antarctica and the Indian Ocean, probably through the Indonesian Throughflow and/or Subantarctic Mode Water. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于TRMM数据的福建省降水时空格局BME插值分析

传统空间插值方法可获得福建省区域内降水的总体分布,但该地区气象站点较稀疏且分布不均,导致该区域内降水的空间插值结果误差较大。为提高插值精度,本文利用TRMM卫星数据以弥补站点数据的不足,尝试将TRMM数据作为"软数据"、台站数据作为"硬数据",两者相结合后采用贝叶斯最大熵(Bayesian Maximum Entropy,BME)方法对福建省降水的时空格局进行分析。以2000-2012年近13年20个气象站点的年降水量和月降水量为基础数据,分别利用普通克里格法(Ordinary Kriging,OK)和TRMM为"软数据"的BME插值法,分析福建省多年降水的时空分布格局,并对2种方法的插值结果进行比较。结果表明:在时空分布上,以TRMM数据为辅助变量的贝叶斯最大熵插值结果能更好地体现降水的局部差异特征;在误差评价上,以TRMM数据为辅助变量的贝叶斯最大熵插值结果的MAE和RMSE较小,表明TRMM数据作为"软数据"参与插值的BME方法可以在一定程度上弥补站点数据的不足,有效降低预测结果的绝对误差。通过对福建省降水插值的时空分布格局分析和误差评价可看出,BME插值法通过对基础台站数据,以及TRMM卫星产品数据的利用,使降水的时空分析结果更加真实客观,同时,为TRMM卫星降水数据的应用提供了一个新思路。     

利用遥感SST反演上层海洋三维温度场

通过统计相关分析验证了一个简单的温度参数模型在太平洋海域的较好适用性。基于Argo观测资料及WOA09气候态温度数据,采用最大角度法求得此模型的相关参数,并利用高分辨率卫星遥感海表温度反演了太平洋上层海域空间分辨率为1°×1°的气候态月平均三维温度场。与实测资料的比较分析表明反演结果是较为真实可靠的,并可作为海洋数值模式积分的初猜场,为实现现场观测(如:Argo)与卫星观测的优势互补,构建太平洋海域完整的三维温度分析场提供一种新途径。     

九孔鲍(Haliotis diversicolor supertexta)耐低盐与生长性状的遗传参数评估

采用不平衡巢式设计方法和人工授精技术,1个雄九孔鲍(Haliotis diversicolor supertexta)配3个雌九孔鲍,建立12个半同胞家系和36个全同胞家系,各家系养殖240d后统计每个家系生长性状,并分别从所建立36家系中随机选取40个稚鲍,在盐度16下进行耐盐实验,48h后统计各个家系的存活率,应用约束最大似然法(Restricted Maximum Likelihood Method,REML)估算九孔鲍体重,壳宽,壳长与耐低盐性状的遗传参数。结果表明,九孔鲍稚鲍在240日龄时,壳长、壳宽和体重遗传力为中等遗传力,估计值分别为0.18±0.04,0.13±0.06,0.18±0.15;耐低盐性状遗传力较低,估计值为0.056±0.022,48h家系的平均存活率为0.44±0.23。壳长,壳宽,体重与耐低盐性状的表型相关与遗传相关系数分别为?0.04—?0.156和?0.03—0.14,呈负相关关系,检验不显著。结果证明,对九孔鲍生长性状与耐低盐性状进行改良时,可采用复合育种技术,以加快育种进程。     

可能最大风暴潮风险评估中各等级热带气旋设定方法

可能最大热带气旋的设定是可能最大风暴潮计算的基础,对风暴潮灾害应急疏散具有重要意义。利用1949~2011年中国气象局(CMA)西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集、美国联合台风预警中心(JTWC)以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)最大风速半径数据集,基于各等级热带气旋参数之间的定量关系,建立了各等级可能最大热带气旋最大风速、中心气压、最大风速半径、移动速度、移动方向等参数设定及路径合成的方法。以福建省连江县为例,按照台风、强台风及超强台风强度等级,分强度衰减和不衰减2种情况,设定3种移动方向,合成了共216场热带气旋作为可能最大风暴潮的计算输入。另外,对参数敏感性、风场参数设定、参数设定与计算量的关系、叠加天文潮以及溃堤等问题进行了讨论。     

Adaptive MAP sub-pixel mapping model based on regularization curve for multiple shifted hyperspectral imagery

Sub-pixel mapping is a promising technique for producing a spatial distribution map of different categories at the sub-pixel scale by using the fractional abundance image as the input. The traditional sub-pixel mapping algorithms based on single images often have uncertainty due to insufficient constraint of the sub-pixel land-cover patterns within the low-resolution pixels. To improve the sub-pixel mapping accuracy, sub-pixel mapping algorithms based on auxiliary datasets, e.g., multiple shifted images, have been designed, and the maximum a posteriori (MAP) model has been successfully applied to solve the ill-posed sub-pixel mapping problem. However, the regularization parameter is difficult to set properly. In this paper, to avoid a manually defined regularization parameter, and to utilize the complementary information, a novel adaptive MAP sub-pixel mapping model based on regularization curve, namely AMMSSM, is proposed for hyperspectral remote sensing imagery. In AMMSSM, a regularization curve which includes an L-curve or U-curve method is utilized to adaptively select the regularization parameter. In addition, to take the influence of the sub-pixel spatial information into account, three class determination strategies based on a spatial attraction model, a class determination strategy, and a winner-takes-all method are utilized to obtain the final sub-pixel mapping result. The proposed method was applied to three synthetic images and one real hyperspectral image. The experimental results confirm that the AMMSSM algorithm is an effective option for sub-pixel mapping, compared with the traditional sub-pixel mapping method based on a single image and the latest sub-pixel mapping methods based on multiple shifted images.