吉尔吉斯北天山地区地震预报研究成果

吉尔吉斯北天山地震活动区建有两个综合预报实验场,15个高灵敏度地震台,7个地磁台,5个地电台,7个地球化学台,6个水动力台,2个自动地震台以及阿拉—阿尔恰地震地球物理观象台和Ⅰ级大地测量网。此外,这里还有苏联科学院高温研究所所属的地电、地磁和光测距台网。该区地震平静期为19—22±6年,地震活动具有周期性特征。强震震源沿北天山地震活动带迁移。文中还确定了与地震酝育相关的地震活动性、地球物理场、地球化学场、水文地球动力学等一系列参数,描述了一系列强震前兆效应;指出了强震发生时间的综合研究的重要意义。     

Entropy estimation of hydrological extremes

The method of Relative Entropy with Fractile constraints (REF method) is explained and applied to model extreme compound hydrological phenomena, such as extreme sea levels under storm conditions. Also presented is a simple method of Tail Entropy Approximation (TEA), which amounts to a correction of traditional statistical estimates for extreme observations.Distribution assumptions are necessary but downplayed in the REF method, relegating the prior distribution to the role of an extrapolation function. The estimates are objective in an information-theoretical sense. They also satisfy a strict requirement of self-consistency that is generally not satisfied by standard statistical methods: invariance under monotonic transformations of the random variable.Historical records of storm surge levels in the Netherlands and annual maximum tidal heights for Sheerness, UK, are used as examples. Comparison is made with distributions obtained using other methods.It is concluded that the tail entropy approximation provides simple, objective estimates of extremes in the tail beyond the range of observations.     

四川威远气田烃流体包裹体的研究

通过烃流体包裹体的类型、均一化温度、气相及液相成分、盐度以及同位素的研究,可以认为威远气田的天然气主要是由白云岩中有机质形成。由于从80～160℃到200～240℃的热解作用,有机物质已演化到过成热阶段。这一过程可由白云岩中存在液态烃及含沥青烃流体包裹体得到证明。威远气田的特征是:震旦系白云岩中天然气的自产自储,以CH_4为主;油田水为古海水,盐度(4.3～17.2)wt%NaCl,pH>8,(CO+CH_4)/CO_2比值指示还原条件。在基底花岗岩石英中发现有气态烃包裹体,其成分及δ~(13)C‰与花岗岩储气层中产出的天然气一致,为部分天然气可能来自深部地壳或地幔提供了新的证据。因而,威远气田天然气的成因主要由有机物质形成,部分甲烷气可能经基底断裂来自地球深处。     

菏泽5.9级地震前后三项地震活动性参数的空间动态演化

用地震活动性参数（地震频度Ｎ，地震能量Ｅ和地震ｂ值）的二维空间等值线计算机扫描技术，系统地追踪了１９８３年菏泽５．９级地震前后三项地震活动性参数的空间动态演化情况。结果表明，菏泽５．９级地震前１－４年，河北平原断陷南部地区特别是其东界聊考断裂带地震活动异常增强，地震频度增高，地震能量释放加速而地震ｂ值降低；地震活动增强区的长度约２００余公里，未来主震发生于地震活动增强区的边缘；震后约一年左右震中周     

强震现场流动无线遥测地震台网观测系统的研制

描述了强震现场流动无线遥测地震台网观测系统的技术设计，系统构成，工作原理及应用。     

大震前地磁场时空间线性度变化的初步研究

把用来分析地震波波形的时间线性度和空间线性度两种方法，应用到地磁资料分析当中，具体分析处理了１９７６年７月２８日唐山Ｍｓ７．８地震和１９８９年１０月１９日大同Ｍｓ６．１地震前后地磁场资料，并对这两次地震前后地磁时空线性度变化情况进行了研究。所得结果表明：①较大地震前地磁场的时空线性度均可能呈现出较明显的下降异常变化，有些在震前回升，②各分量的时空线性度呈现异常的时间基本上同步，并与波速异常发展趋势基本相符。     

用第六代国际地磁参考场确定的东亚地磁非偶极场时空变化规律

利用近期公布的第六代国际地磁参考场（ＩＧＲＦ）计算，分析了１９４５年以来东亚地磁非偶极场的时空变化特征，并用中国地磁场模型对结果进行了检验，得到的主要结果是：１９４５－１９９０年，东亚地磁非偶极场Ｘ、Ｙ分量缓慢向北和向西方向移动，东亚磁异常中心位置基本稳定，中心附近Ｚ分量的强度变化具有明显的大约１５年左右的增强和减弱期。中心附近Ｘ、Ｙ的零值点的移动方向与地磁北极的移动方向一致。     

BANDPASS FILTERING ANALYSIS WITH GAUSSIAN WEIGHTING FUNCTION IN TWO-DIMENSIONAL FIELDS

This paper examines the response of the bandpass filter with Gaussian weighting function to arbitrarytwo-dimensional fields and proposes a new concept of relative response function.Based on the properties of relative re-sponse function,satisfactory weighting parameters C_1 and C_2 are obtained.By studying two cases,the procedure of us-ing structure function curves to choose the maximum response wavelength is formulated.It is shown that bandpass fil-tering offers some improvements to the analysis and forecast of mesoscale weather processes.     

ERROR COMPARISON OF WIND FIELD RETRIEVAL FROM SINGLE AND DUAL-DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS

The error distributions of the wind fields retrieved from single and dual-Doppler radar observations are given inthis paper.The results indicate that the error of dual-Doppler retrieval depends on the position in the scan region of thedual-Doppler radar.The error of single-Doppler retrieval by using velocity azimuth processing(VAP)technique de-pends on the angle between the directions of wind and the radar beam.Generally,the winds retrieved from single Doppl-er radar are close to those retrieved from dual-Doppler radar.But,the error distribution of the single-Doppler retrievalis different from the dual-Doppler retrieval.We simulate the retrievals of single Doppler observation by the use of theoutput wind data from a 3-D numerical model of severe convection.The comparison of the simulated single-anddual-Doppler retrievals shows that the VAP may be a suitable technique for the operational analysis of mesoscale windfields.It can also be used as a supplement to wind field retrieval in the field experiment.