二次创业与南方海相碳酸盐岩油气勘探的发现与展望

本文概述了中国南方碳酸盐岩地区的油气勘探经历和认识过程.在刘光鼎院士提出的"油气资源二次创业"理论方法指导下,我国在海相碳酸盐岩地区开展的地球物理勘探工作取得了重要成果.海相碳酸盐岩地区具有更复杂的地质构造和演化过程,该类地区寻找油气是世界性难题,传统勘探手段已不适用.本文给出了该类地区进行地球物理勘探的新思路、新方法、新技术,并以举世瞻目的普光大气田的发现说明了新方法的合理性和优势.文章最后给出在南方海相碳酸盐岩地区进行油气地球物理勘探的发展远景.     

Nonlinear dynamo effects for an inhomogeneously turbulent rotating fluid

Im Rahmen der Magnetohydrodynamik der mittleren Felder werden die turbulenzbedingte elektromotorische Kraft und der turbulenzbedingte Spannungstensor für eine leitende Flüssigkeit mit inhomogener Turbulenz auf einem rotierenden Körper berechnet. Dabei wird der Einflu$sZ des Magnetfeldes auf der Turbulenz berücksichtigt. So erscheinen nichtlineare Effekte bei den Vorgängen, die für das Vorhandensein von Magnetfeld und differentieller Rotation verantwortlich sind; die dafür ma$sZgebenden Koeffizienten sind Funktionen des Magnetfeldes. Die Nichtlinearitäten werden bis zur zweiten Ordnung im mittleren Magnetfeld (d. h. als schwache Nichtlinearitäten) erfa$sZt. Der $aL-Effekt beim $aL$OM-Dynamo erleidet sowohl bei langsamer als auch bei rascher Rotation eine Schwächung durch das Magnetfeld. Es werden einige astrophysikalische Anwendungen der Ergebnisse erörtert. Insbesondere wird auf die Möglichkeit hingewiesen, da$sZ die bei der Sonne beobachteten Torsionsschwingungen als Folge des im Aktivitätszyklus schwankenden magnetischen Einflusses auf den für die differentielle Rotation ma$sZgebenden A-Effekt erscheinen.     

河南区域经济增长俱乐部趋同研究

1990~2004年,河南区域经济增长形成了高收入、中高收入、中低收入和低收入 4个趋同俱乐部。高收入和低收入趋同俱乐部的稳定性最大且连片扩张,区域经济增长水平和空间结构的两极分化日趋增强。总体上,一个区域的"邻居区域环境"对其经济增长及其向何种趋同俱乐部转移有规律性的影响。低收入区域的经济增长及其向中低收入趋同俱乐部转移的概率与其邻居区域的经济增长水平正相关。中低收入区域更倾向于向低收入趋同俱乐部转移。对于中高收入区域,与经济增长水平越高的区域为邻,其向高收入趋同俱乐部转移的概率越大;反之,与经济增长水平越低的区域为邻,其向中低收入趋同俱乐部转移概率也越大。高收入区域的经济增长及稳定性受邻居区域的影响比较小。     

兰州市主城区房价分异及驱动因素研究

以2021年兰州市主城区678个居住小区房价数据为基础,引入地理场模型量化影响房价的外部因素,通过空间自相关分析、多尺度地理加权回归等模型对房价分异的空间格局及驱动因素的作用机理、带宽差异展开研究,以期为推动河谷型城市房产市场的公平发展提供参考。结果表明:(1)兰州市主城区平均房价为13739元·m^-2,空间上呈现“一主三副”的带状多中心组团式分布格局,房价由多中心向四周递减,价格相似的小区在地理空间上邻近分布,具有“小集中、大分散”的局部空间特征。(2)房价分异是多种驱动因素共同作用的结果,区位特征中的主商圈对房价的影响居于首位,建筑特征中的房龄、容积率和邻里特征中的中学数量、绿化率等对房价的影响较大,城市地理特征对房价具有显著影响,愈靠近黄河的小区、房价越高。(3)各驱动因素的带宽差异明显,主商圈、医院等小尺度变量存在高度空间异质性,而容积率、黄河等全局变量基本不存在空间异质性。     

Identifying the scope of the Lhasa Metropolitan Area based on a spatial field energy model

The cultivation and development of modern metropolitan areas with the aim of establishing new regional centers with competitive edge is a key objective for the new-type urbanization directions in China. The construction of the Lhasa Metropolitan Area is of great significance for the promotion of the South Asia Channel, the ‘Belt and Road' initiative, the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the Himalaya Economic Cooperation Zone, and for rapid development and long-term stability of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. This paper examines the scope of the Lhasa Metropolitan Area including Chengguanqu(Chengguan District), Doilungdeqen, Dagze, Lhunzhub, Damxung, Nyemo, Quxu, Maizhokunggar, Samzhubze Qu(Samzhubze District), Gyangze, Rinbung, Bainang, Nedong, Gonggar, and Zhanang using a spatial field energy model that combines nodality and accessibility indices and considers multiple indicators including traffic flow between cities. By combining factors such as the natural background, population agglomeration, the social economy, infrastructure construction, and the urban spatial structure of the Lhasa Metropolitan Area, it is proposed to build a bow-and-arrow-shaped urban system with ‘one core, two centers, one axis, and two wings' along the valleys and the transportation trunk lines of the area. The study advocates the construction of a pure land industrial system comprising a green cultural and tourism-oriented plateau.     

Consolidation in spatially random unsaturated soils based on coupled flow‐deformation simulation

This paper integrates random field simulation of soil spatial variability with numerical modeling of coupled flow and deformation to investigate consolidation in spatially random unsaturated soil. The spatial variability of soil properties is simulated using the covariance matrix decomposition method. The random soil properties are imported into an interactive multiphysics software COMSOL to solve the governing partial differential equations. The effects of the spatial variability of Young's modulus and saturated permeability together with unsaturated hydraulic parameters on the dissipation of excess pore water pressure and settlement are investigated using an example of consolidation in a saturated‐unsaturated soil column because of loading. It is found that the surface settlement and the pore water pressure profile during the process of consolidation are significantly affected by the spatially varying Young's modulus. The mean value of the settlement of the spatially random soil is more than 100% greater than that of the deterministic case, and the surface settlement is subject to large uncertainty, which implies that consolidation settlement is difficult to predict accurately based on the conventional deterministic approach. The uncertainty of the settlement increases with the scale of fluctuation because of the averaging effect of spatial variability. The effects of spatial variability of saturated permeability k_sat and air entry parameters are much less significant than that of elastic modulus. The spatial variability of air entry value parameters affects the uncertainties of settlement and excess pore pressure mostly in the unsaturated zone. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preliminary 3–D geological model of the Kalgoorlie region,Yilgarn Craton,Western Australia,based on deep seismic‐reflection and potential‐field data

The granite‐greenstone terranes of the Eastern Goldfields Province, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia, are a major Australian and world gold and nickel source. The Kalgoorlie region, in particular, hosts several world‐class gold deposits. To attempt to understand why these deposits occur where they do, it is important to understand the crustal architecture in the region and how the major mineral systems operate in this architecture. One way to understand these relationships is to develop a detailed 3–D geological model for the region. The best method to map the 3–D geometry of major geological structures is by acquisition and interpretation of seismic‐reflection profiles. To contribute to this aim, a grid of deep seismic‐reflection traverses was acquired in 1999 to examine the 3–D geometry of the region in an area including the Kalgoorlie mineral region and mineral fields to the north and west. This grid was tied to the 1991 regional deep seismic traverse and 1997 high‐resolution seismic profiles in the same region. The grid covers an area measuring approximately 50 km wide by 50 km long and extended to a depth of approximately 50 km (below the base of the crust in this region). The resulting 3–D geological model was further constrained by both surface geological data and geophysical interpretations, with the seismic interpretations themselves also constrained by gravity and magnetic modelling. The 3–D model was used to investigate the geometric relationships between the major faults and shear zones in the area, the relationship between the granite‐greenstone succession and the basement, and the spatial relationships between the greenstones and the granites. Interpretation of the grid of seismic lines and construction of the 3–D geological model confirmed the existence of the detachment surface and led to the recognition that the granite‐greenstone contact usually occurs at a much shallower level than the detachment. Also, west‐dipping faults in the vicinity of the Golden Mile, including the Abattoir Shear through to Boulder‐Lefroy Fault, appear to be more important than previously thought in controlling the structure of that area. An antiformal thrust stack occurs beneath a triangle zone centred on the Golden Mile. The Black Flag Group was deposited in a probable extensional setting, and late extension was also probably more important than previously thought. The granite‐gneiss domes were uplifted by the formation of antiformal thrust stacks at depth beneath them.     

Pulse generation models for daily intermittent streamflows / Modèles de génération d’impulsions pour des débits journaliers intermittents

Abstract

Abstract Generating pulses and then converting them into flow are two main steps of daily streamflow generation. Three pulse generation models have been proposed on the basis of Markov chains for the purpose of generating daily intermittent streamflow time series in this study. The first one is based on two two-state Markov chains, whereas the second uses a three-state Markov chain. The third model uses harmonic analysis and fits Fourier series to the three-state Markov chain. Results for a daily intermittent streamflow data series show a good performance of the proposed models.     

Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology / Estimation bayésienne des incertitudes au sein d’une modélisation conceptuelle de bilan hydrologique

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the uncertainties in the streamflow simulated by a rainfall–runoff model. Two sources of uncertainties in hydrological modelling were considered: the uncertainties in model parameters and those in model structure. The uncertainties were calculated by Bayesian statistics, and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was used to simulate the posterior parameter distribution. The parameter uncertainty calculated by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm was compared to maximum likelihood estimates which assume that both the parameters and model residuals are normally distributed. The study was performed using the model WASMOD on 25 basins in central Sweden. Confidence intervals in the simulated discharge due to the parameter uncertainty and the total uncertainty were calculated. The results indicate that (a) the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and the maximum likelihood method give almost identical estimates concerning the parameter uncertainty, and (b) the uncertainties in the simulated streamflow due to the parameter uncertainty are less important than uncertainties originating from other sources for this simple model with fewer parameters.     

Daily rainfall projections from general circulation models with a downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (NHMM) for south‐eastern Australia

An ensemble of stochastic daily rainfall projections has been generated for 30 stations across south‐eastern Australia using the downscaling nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model, which was driven by atmospheric predictors from four climate models for three IPCC emissions scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) and for two periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100). The results indicate that the annual rainfall is projected to decrease for both periods for all scenarios and climate models, with the exception of a few scenarios of no statistically significant changes. However, there is a seasonal difference: two downscaled GCMs consistently project a decline of summer rainfall, and two an increase. In contrast, all four downscaled GCMs show a decrease of winter rainfall. Because winter rainfall accounts for two‐thirds of the annual rainfall and produces the majority of streamflow for this region, this decrease in winter rainfall would cause additional water availability concerns in the southern Murray–Darling basin, given that water shortage is already a critical problem in the region. In addition, the annual maximum daily rainfall is projected to intensify in the future, particularly by the end of the 21st century; the maximum length of consecutive dry days is projected to increase, and correspondingly, the maximum length of consecutive wet days is projected to decrease. These changes in daily sequencing, combined with fewer events of reduced amount, could lead to drier catchment soil profiles and further reduce runoff potential and, hence, also have streamflow and water availability implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.