Disjunctive Kriging with Hard and Imprecise Data

This paper presents a methodology for assessing local probability distributions by disjunctive kriging when the available data set contains some imprecise measurements, like noisy or soft information or interval constraints. The basic idea consists in replacing the set of imprecise data by a set of pseudohard data simulated from their posterior distribution; an iterative algorithm based on the Gibbs sampler is proposed to achieve such a simulation step. The whole procedure is repeated many times and the final result is the average of the disjunctive kriging estimates computed from each simulated data set. Being data-independent, the kriging weights need to be calculated only once, which enables fast computing. The simulation procedure requires encoding each datum as a pre-posterior distribution and assuming a Markov property to allow the updating of pre-posterior distributions into posterior ones. Although it suffers some imperfections, disjunctive kriging turns out to be a much more flexible approach than conditional expectation, because of the vast class of models that allows its computation, namely isofactorial models.     

带压开采煤层底板突水安全可靠性分析

为合理评价孙疃煤矿10煤层带压开采的安全可靠性,建立了10煤层隔水底板稳定性可靠度分析模型。考虑底板隔水层厚度、底板岩石容重、抗拉强度等参数为随机变量,采用斯列萨列夫安全隔水层厚度计算公式建立极限状态方程。在研究随机变量概型的基础上,采用JC法、最优化法以及基于最优化的蒙特卡罗法计算隔水底板的可靠度以及失效概率,并探讨了该矿10煤层安全开采的可靠指标,避免了单纯依据定值作为突水判据的某些不合理性。     

地基承载力上限分析中的Monte Carlo搜索技术

Greco提出的临界滑裂面搜寻的Monte Carlo搜索技术具有原理简单、适应性强、搜索性能好及容易编程实现等优点,目前该类方法已在边坡稳定的优化计算中有许多成功的应用。为能够在多块体上限法求解地基极限承载力的优化计算中应用Monte Carlo搜索技术,基于上限法相容速度场的要求及地基承载力问题的特点,对Monte Carlo搜索技术实现中的目标函数、几何约束条件、初始破坏面的产生以及收敛准则等重新进行了设置。由于Monte Carlo搜索技术随机性的特点,某一次的搜索优化往往存在陷入局部极值的危险,为解决这一不足,采取了随机设置多次初始破坏面分别进行搜索优化的办法,计算表明,优化效果很好。通过对实际问题的计算以及对比发现,Monte Carlo搜索技术在此处多块体上限法求解地基承载力问题中的优化应用是相当成功的。此外,由于此处的优化是以破坏面上的节点为对象的,因此,不但可以方便地考虑三角形块体的优化,而且也可以方便地考虑四边形块体的优化问题,其适用性更强。     

西藏波密茶隆隆巴曲高位地质灾害类型及发育特征

茶隆隆巴曲位于帕隆藏布右岸,陡变地形孕育了大量高位地质灾害,威胁下游线性工程。采用多源、多期次高分辨率遥感数据,建立高位地质灾害遥感解译标志,厘定了研究区高位地质灾害类型,并详细阐述了其发育特征。结果表明,研究区主要地质灾害类型包括高位冰崩、高位崩塌、高位滑坡。其中高位冰崩发育3处,均位于沟谷上游南坡海拔5000 m斜坡,面积在15×104 m2以上。高位崩塌体发育19处,多分布于沟谷中游及上游主沟两侧高陡岸坡,北坡多于南坡。高位滑坡发育2处,位于沟谷上游,滑体以冰碛物为主。上述高位地质灾害在强震或强降雨作用下,极易发生失稳、堵沟,且堵沟后极易诱发洪水、泥石流等次生灾害链,对下游帕隆藏布造成堵江风险。     

狭陡型泥石流成灾特征与防治对策研究——以阿坝州金川县刘家沟泥石流为例

刘家沟位于四川省阿坝州金川县,是一条狭陡型高频泥石流沟,每年雨季,降雨激发泥石流灾害链。本文在野外调查和实地勘测的基础上,分析认为,受汶川MS8.0地震扰动,刘家沟形成流通区单位面积上松散固体物质达98.11×10⁴ m³,在409.8‰的平均纵坡降下,泥石流活动频率明显增强,泥石流沿程放大效应明显,最终形成了降雨+径流侵蚀-滑坡-堰塞体-堰塞体溃决-增大的泥石流-堵河形成堰塞湖-卡撒沟中、下游损害的灾害链。提出采用格宾石笼进行固坡护床,结合拦挡坝拦粗排细的作用,根据保护对象设置防护堤,优化排导槽与主河交汇条件的综合治理措施,可为小流域高频狭陡型泥石流灾害的治理提供参考。     

A Simple Monte Carlo Method for Locating the Three-dimensional Critical Slip Surface of a Slope

Based on the assumption of the plain-strain problem, various optimization or random search methods have been developed for locating the critical slip surfaces in slope-stability analysis, but none of such methods is applicable to the 3D case. In this paper, a simple Monte Carlo random simulation method is proposed to identify the 3D critical slip surface. Assuming the initial slip to be the lower part of a slip ellipsoid, the 3D critical slip surface is located by means of a minimized 3D safety factor. A column-based 3D slope stability analysis model is used to calculate this factor. In this study, some practical cases of known minimum safety factors and critical slip surfaces in 2D analysis are extended to 3D slope problems to locate the critical slip surfaces. Compared with the 2D result, the resulting 3D critical slip surface has no apparent difference in terms of only cross section, but the associated 3D safety factor is definitely higher.     

随机误差传递与合成的蒙特卡罗模拟

对分析测试过程中随机误差的传递与合成进行了蒙卡罗模拟,并偏制了ＢＡＳＩＣ程序。该方法解决了当被合成误差不相互独立时泰勒级数公式所遇到的困难,当被合成误差相互独立时,与泰勒公式计算结果一致。     

地下水模型的Neumann展开Monte-Carlo随机有限元法

讨论了求解地下水模型(水流模型和水质模型)的Neumann展开Monte-Carlo随机有限元法。从基本的随机变量入手,避免了过程中随机变量的增多问题,给出结点水头(浓度)的均值、方差和水头在某区间的概率计算方法;改进了矩阵求逆的效率,对输入随机变量较多、随机变量变异较大的非稳定地下水问题特别有效。同时选取二维承压地下水水流问题(有解析解)作为例子,进行了随机数值模拟实验。